famartin Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Guess its time for its own thread... Still uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 17, 2015 Author Share Posted January 17, 2015 EC and GGEM on-board... GFS has similar track but has the precip fall apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 EC and GGEM on-board... GFS has similar track but has the precip fall apart. QPF looks light given the track on GFS, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 17, 2015 Author Share Posted January 17, 2015 QPF looks light given the track on GFS, no? It does seem odd. Almost seems like it tries to do a jump of the energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 17, 2015 Author Share Posted January 17, 2015 18Z GFS is a little faster, a little wetter (not hard since last one had like nothing), and a little warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 18Z GFS is a little faster, a little wetter (not hard since last one had like nothing), and a little warmer. Is the new and improved GFS or old. Did not follow the roll out of the new gfs. Read reports is was a bust. old GFS has been handling the current patter decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 Is the new and improved GFS or old. Did not follow the roll out of the new gfs. Read reports is was a bust. old GFS has been handling the current patter decent. New GFS is in service. Old GFS is dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 0z GFS goes boom at the coast, snow northern burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 0z GFS goes boom at the coast, snow northern burbs Quite a temp gradient setting up between here and Ohio Valley Elkins near 50 Roanoke 30 Media pa here 23 Pittsburgh 42 and rising Cleveland 46 gotta be a storm brewing with that could get interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 0z GFS goes boom at the coast, snow northern burbs How the hell could this be rain for the cities with below freezing at 850 AND sub 540 thickness... I have never seen any winter scenario where that didn't translate to snow.. Then again this winter has been so bad it might as well be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 How the hell could this be rain for the cities with below freezing at 850 AND sub 540 thickness... I have never seen any winter scenario where that didn't translate to snow.. Then again this winter has been so bad it might as well be... I've seen that in New Jersey, and it happens routinely in the Pacific Northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I've seen that in New Jersey, and it happens routinely in the Pacific Northwest. There's one place I've seen that in NJ... on the coast with higher SSTs... I would think dynamic cooling with precip falling would help when the surface is a bit too warm... I've never seen a clipper setup like this bring rain for the philly/I-95 area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 There's one place I've seen that in NJ... on the coast with higher SSTs... I would think dynamic cooling with precip falling would help when the surface is a bit too warm... I've never seen a clipper setup like this bring rain for the philly/I-95 area... I have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I have. So are you saying this is a rain event then? Even with the well off shore redevelopment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 There's one place I've seen that in NJ... on the coast with higher SSTs... I would think dynamic cooling with precip falling would help when the surface is a bit too warm... I've never seen a clipper setup like this bring rain for the philly/I-95 area... There is WSW flow all night ahead of it so the dewpoints come up and its basically a rain/snow mix til the low gets offshore and winds swing around to the NE...this far out its entirely possible that scenario is too warm, the new GFS runs too warm in the boundary layer, I have definitely noticed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 So are you saying this is a rain event then? Even with the well off shore redevelopment? No. I'm just saying that its possible to have low thicknesses and 850s, and still get rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 No. I'm just saying that its possible to have low thicknesses and 850s, and still get rain. I think you need a much staler airmas than is in place for this, or an onshore wind...I could see this being rain for ACY and coastal NJ but I'd be shocked if this scenario verified as shown if places like TTN or EWR saw any rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 I think you need a much staler airmas than is in place for this, or an onshore wind...I could see this being rain for ACY and coastal NJ but I'd be shocked if this scenario verified as shown if places like TTN or EWR saw any rain. It will likely depend on wherever the surface warm front sets up. I don't think the staleness is a factor, more of how quickly its in and out, at least per the GFS. The 925 and 850 lows go right across NJ. Not a great recipe for all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 0z ECM solves the rain snow question by sending the clipper way way south giving DC all snow 5" lol we get screwed like clipper #1 Hate to say it but these clippers trend south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 0z ECM solves the rain snow question by sending the clipper way way south giving DC all snow 5" lol we get screwed like clipper #1 Hate to say it but these clippers trend south Yet ggem jackpots SE PA Philly and C NJ with 6" + and DC almost nothing thus still way too early to make any call on this one. Have to see what models show after the rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 .67" IAD euro says for clipper. GFS light rain in Philly / euro warning snows in DC land lmao why not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Yet ggem jackpots SE PA Philly and C NJ with 6" + and DC almost nothing thus still way too early to make any fall on this one. Have to see what models show after the rainstorm Clippers notoriously trend south the writing is on the wall it's DC's winter just like the 80's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 .67" IAD euro says for clipper. GFS light rain in Philly / euro warning snows in DC land lmao why not Because it's winter 2015 and DC will likely finish several inches above their pitiful 12" average while Phlly NYC and maybe even Boston will have another less than 10" season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Clippers notoriously trend south the writing is on the wall it's DC's winter just like the 80's True but this one is deepening and slowing down each model run and should turn ENE off the Delmarva enhancing precip to the north. The last clipper's precip field was also a good 50 miles further north than modeled and that was a POS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Because it's winter 2015 and DC will likely finish several inches above their pitiful 12" average while Phlly NYC and maybe even Boston will have another less than 10" season. PHL has had 2 sub 10" winters already this decade, a 3rd is possible. Happened in the 1930's, 1950's, and 1990's. Never more than 3 in a decade though (going back to the 1890's anyway). Having said that I'm still thinking this winter will do better than that, and the trends for Wednesday are definitely positive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 0z euro had to be out to lunch GFS and NAM look nothing like it at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 Because it's winter 2015 and DC will likely finish several inches above their pitiful 12" average while Phlly NYC and maybe even Boston will have another less than 10" season. BOS is really tough... already a bit more than halflway there with 5.5". Only two seasons there were below 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 GGEM is weak sauce and took the bus to DC, mostly light rain there. This one is done for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 GGEM is weak sauce and took the bus to DC, mostly light rain there. This one is done for us. track of cliippers and strength can vary from run to run a few days out, way too soon to make final proclaimations like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Clippers notoriously trend south the writing is on the wall it's DC's winter just like the 80's am I missing something or did DC have the one clipper last week that was about 4 inches and that's really it? and somehow it is a DC winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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