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why I am NOT Bullish next 2 weeks on snow -


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  For   Middle Atlantic   lets   JAN  26-27  was  rain ...  feb 1-2   was mostly rain and mild temps

 

 feb 6 is   PROBABLY  a Miss    Feb 10   same  thing 

 

AO  goes strongly  Positive    

 

 

post-9415-0-10727300-1422942767_thumb.jp

 

 

weak Mild  -NAO goes neutral then Positive   EPO  goes Positive

post-9415-0-36616600-1422942771_thumb.pn

 

 mean  trough is ON the east coast which is GREAT for  eastern New England  since that regions sticks out  to  almost  70  west Long... but   for   Mid Atlantic  the  trough on / over  75  west Long   means  cold and dry  and lots of     near misses 

 

post-9415-0-86786200-1422942907_thumb.pn

 


 

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NOAA PSD EPO INDEX Forecast Update for February 4th:

 

post-2744-0-28305900-1423102479_thumb.gi

 

 

AO forecast goes positive, but only after finishing the current negative run which is the longest negative run since mid-November. The AO moves to a little over +1, not exactly strong now or on previous forecast, but positive at least temporarily:

 

post-2744-0-56677400-1423102630_thumb.gi

 

And why is the  240 hour Euro Ensemble forecast by itself representative of the 500 millibar mean trough position?

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