Rjay Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Flurries it is. 0-2" is a great call right now. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Flurries it is. As you become increasingly well acquainted with model watching; one thing you will find is that the so called "answer" to the question is invariably subject to change and revision...storms that appear to be direct hits for this area 20 runs in a row suddenly veer off 6 hours before they are due to start...and events that have been long written off slowly but surely creep back into the picture while no one is looking...no one but the referee from Caddyshack, that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 0-2" is a great call right now. Lol I'd take the 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 As you become increasingly well acquainted with model watching; one thing you will find is that the so called "answer" to the question is invariably subject to change and revision...storms that appear to be direct hits for this area 20 runs in a row suddenly veer off 6 hours before they are due to start...and events that have been long written off slowly but surely creep back into the picture while no one is looking...no one but the referee from Caddyshack... True, very true. But the house has been stacking the odds against us since the beginning. That said, the Canadian's snow showers are better than the GFS' nothingness. Maybe the Euro will give us some bona fide snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 As you become increasingly well acquainted with model watching; one thing you will find is that the so called "answer" to the question is invariably subject to change and revision...storms that appear to be direct hits for this area 20 runs in a row suddenly veer off 6 hours before they are due to start...and events that have been long written off slowly but surely creep back into the picture while no one is looking...no one but the referee from Caddyshack, that is. Keep it fair, keep it fair... <Hands him some Benjamins> No, I can't accept that <Surreptitiously accepts money and stuffs it in his pocket> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1120 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2015 VALID JAN 19/0000 UTC THRU JAN 22/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION AND PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES LOW PRESSURE FORMING NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST COAST WED NGT... PREFERENCE: GFS OR 12Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE NAM REPRESENTS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE AND IS LEAST PREFERRED DUE TO ITS UNDESIRABLE UPSTREAM SOLUTION CROSSING THE OH VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...THE GFS AND 12Z ECMWF ARE CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS...INCLUDING THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...WHICH IS MOST PREFERRED DUE TO THE GROWING SOLUTION SPREAD. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_96hrbw.gif 96.gif "It's a good thing you're an engineer. With tact like that, you'd make a lousy psychiatrist." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 As you become increasingly well acquainted with model watching; one thing you will find is that the so called "answer" to the question is invariably subject to change and revision...storms that appear to be direct hits for this area 20 runs in a row suddenly veer off 6 hours before they are due to start...and events that have been long written off slowly but surely creep back into the picture while no one is looking...no one but the referee from Caddyshack, that is. A favorable solution was reported in the SNE thread for the 0z ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 A favorable solution was reported in the SNE thread for the 0z ECMWF. So I read, but what does it really mean? And why am I still up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 GEFS were pretty good apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 So I read, but what does it really mean? And why am I still up? Do you have college or work in the morning? For me...it is a federal holiday & paid...so I have that going for me...which is nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Do you have college or work in the morning? For me...it is a federal holiday & paid...so I have that going for me...which is nice. No, I am way passed college. Just insomniac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Do you have college or work in the morning? For me...it is a federal holiday & paid...so I have that going for me...which is nice. And no work for the week. Vacation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 No, I am way passed college. Just insomniac. We're going off to college To get a bunch of knowledge Which we're hoping will let us lead a life of ease... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 And no work for the week. Vacation. Vacation? What do you mean vacation? Your *whole life* has been a vacation! *laughs* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Euro has some light snow with the clipper. 1-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Euro has some light snow with the clipper. 1-3". Progress this winter is measured in very small steps indeed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 GEFS were pretty good apparently. This event definitely scares me, there is potential for it to go fairly big on us and with little advanced warning...it only requires subtle changes...its not going to be 1 foot plus but this could turn into 4-8 or 6-10 easily and be a black eye on the forecasters type of deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 This event definitely scares me, there is potential for it to go fairly big on us and with little advanced warning...it only requires subtle changes...its not going to be 1 foot plus but this could turn into 4-8 or 6-10 easily and be a black eye on the forecasters type of deal. Talk dirt to me, Harry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 17Km UKMET has about .2" going through North Jersey while the ECMWF has about .2"-.3" for most of the area. Nothing more than a penny and nickle event, but it's better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Interesting AFD (4:25 am) from NWS regarding this system ..I'm on my mobile can someone please post ..I think many would find it a good read overall .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Too bad that there is no Arctic air around to help boost the ratios with 850's at around -4C and the 0-6z drying from 12-18z yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 This event definitely scares me, there is potential for it to go fairly big on us and with little advanced warning...it only requires subtle changes...its not going to be 1 foot plus but this could turn into 4-8 or 6-10 easily and be a black eye on the forecasters type of deal. after Upton is still recovering from the cancelled freezing rain advisory yesterday - their AFD this morning already mentions the possibility of plowable snow..... THE MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY AMONGST THEMSELVES AND FROM RUN TO RUN IN A GIVEN MODEL ON THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PRESSURE THAT TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING SE OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WHAT HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS THOUGH IS IN THE MEAN...THE IDEA OF THE POSSIBILITY OF A PLOWABLE SNOW...IF NOT AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS OVER THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 0z EPS wasn't too bad. Seems like 2 clusters for a track. A sizable one just nw of the mean, and a smaller one more OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
middlesea Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Upton's snowmap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 sn.gif http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/StormTotalPrecip/StormTotalSnowFcst.png http://www.weather.gov/images/phi/winter/StormTotalSnowRange.png Upton AFD http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off 06z Nam and GFS --- check the updates http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015011906/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_11.png I would take 3-4 in a heartbeat , however me thinks we're looking at a C-2" situation for NYC metro, with perhaps a little more off to our west.. Sure, I'll get jumped on for that but the good news is we only have to wait two days for verification one way or another Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 9z SREF has .50 right over NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 RPM has 6-8 inches for NYC with the clipper lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 RPM has 6-8 inches for NYC with the clipper lol haha RPM shouldnt be allowed to be a model... i guess if you divide by 4 or 5 every time than its somewhat accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 haha RPM shouldnt be allowed to be a model... i guess if you divide by 4 or 5 every time than its somewhat accurate. I remember when it spit out 30 inches for the area one time for a storm last year lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Snow showers on the 12z Nam for the area.Weaker and further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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