BoulderWX Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 12z GGEM has the Clipper but it's way south. NYC is high and dry. Even Philly on this run. no worries, I'm sure there is something for you to be optimistic about around D10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 The more wrapped up and strength of today's storm Thanks dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 GFS evolution looks a bit funky though from Hrs 66-72 with it's low progression/development. Not sure I'd trust it yet, but the suggestion by models of a southerly track look reasonable at this juncture. Just have to watch the next few runs to see how/whether it changes at all once the current system wraps up into the Maine/CA area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 GFS evolution looks a bit funky though from Hrs 66-72 with it's low progression/development. Not sure I'd trust it yet, but the suggestion by models of a southerly track look reasonable at this juncture. Just have to watch the next few runs to see how/whether it changes at all once the current system wraps up into the Maine/CA area. The Euro was funky last night too, it appeared to have a well developing low that was turning the corner, then on the next 6-12 hours it shunts it east and merges it with a low off the Coast that comes up from SC and off Florida...almost like a convective feedback type thing. I think the problem with this is the trailing shortwave over Minnesota and Iowa, it seems to now dampen the pattern too much that this does not amplify. My guess is the 12Z Euro is going to come in much weaker, but at the same time it may turn the corner more so off the Coast. The spread on the 12Z GFS ensembles is still massive for 84 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 The Euro was funky last night too, it appeared to have a well developing low that was turning the corner, then on the next 6-12 hours it shunts it east and merges it with a low off the Coast that comes up from SC and off Florida...almost like a convective feedback type thing. I think the problem with this is the trailing shortwave over Minnesota and Iowa, it seems to now dampen the pattern too much that this does not amplify. My guess is the 12Z Euro is going to come in much weaker, but at the same time it may turn the corner more so off the Coast. The spread on the 12Z GFS ensembles is still massive for 84 hours out. Wow. A good 4 of those show some sizable development/impact. A couple more show a fairly significant event. I wouldn't sleep on this the next few runs (not saying it will deliver anything for us). I recall how last year the storm we had in mid January with a digging clipper/low through the Ohio valley, kind of snuck up on us a bit just in the days before with the models picking up on better redevelopment and moisture. I believe that one had helped us with a favorable location of the baroclinic zone (if I'm not mistaken). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Euro is dry for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 GEFS has us in the 0.10 -0.25 qpf range for midweek - 1 - 3 inches seems reasonable http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nav.html?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=apcpn24&runtime=2015011812&fh=90&xpos=0&ypos=208 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 GEFS has us in the 0.10 -0.25 qpf range for midweek - 1 - 3 inches seems reasonable http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nav.html?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=apcpn24&runtime=2015011812&fh=90&xpos=0&ypos=208 If you want to believe that. Euro and GGEM say we get nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 GEFS has us in the 0.10 -0.25 qpf range for midweek - 1 - 3 inches seems reasonable http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nav.html?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=apcpn24&runtime=2015011812&fh=90&xpos=0&ypos=208 ok a compromise 0 -3 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 18z Nam has 10 inches of snow for nyc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Lol @ the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 wow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 What does NAM stand for ? . . . I mean the joke version. I know what it really stands for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 18z Nam has 10 inches of snow for nyc. It has no support..it's the 18z Nam and its 72 hours away. It has like .01% chance of verifying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 It has no support..it's the 18z Nam and its 72 hours away. It has like .01% chance of verifying Big changes at 18z. There are 2 vorts in the north flow...the initial one is so weak it causes some height rises....for the next one. This is not a fluke run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Big changes at 18z. There are 2 vorts in the north flow...the initial one is so weak it causes some height rises....for the next one. This is not a fluke run. You think its going to show something similar at 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Big changes at 18z. There are 2 vorts in the north flow...the initial one is so weak it causes some height rises....for the next one. This is not a fluke run. It is the NAM at the end of its run. Based on the latter parts of NAM runs, we all accumulated a widespread 100-200 inches of snowfall each year for the past several years. Something to watch, but it is of no value at this point. Let's hope for the best, though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 So this is the 12z EPS for the clipper, and the largest cluster follows pretty much the same path. I don't really see anything that would be considered amped up anymore. Not really what some of us wanted to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Dont be shocked if we get more substantial digging than at 18z. The energy is getting closer to North America and not fully sampled yet. Based on what I see and the seperation now more apparant between the weaker and stronger shortwave...I expect to see a big solution at 00z. You think its going to show something similar at 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 NAM delays the clipper a bit and has it not digging as south as before which allows for transfer/redevelopment off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 NAM delays the clipper a bit and has it not digging as south as before which allows for transfer/redevelopment off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 so flurries to 8-10", yup not happening LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 so flurries to 8-10", yup not happening LOL Dude come on. The energy which has been in sparse networking....as usual...is only now being sampled. Given the marked changes on one run....00z run may look quite good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Dude come on. The energy which has been in sparse networking....as usual...is only now being sampled. Given the marked changes on one run....00z run may look quite good. Will be shocked if it shows anything close to this at 0z. Maybe if the gfs has something similar would I think it's onto something. Otherwise its just ON something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Dude come on. The energy which has been in sparse networking....as usual...is only now being sampled. Given the marked changes on one run....00z run may look quite good. If this dramatic change is a matter of better sampling, the GFS will move in that direction. We'll see soon, as the 18z run initialized a short time ago. I suspect that this is more likely one of the NAM's exciting outlier solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 If this dramatic change is a matter of better sampling, the GFS will move in that direction. We'll see soon, as the 18z run initialized a short time ago. I suspect that this is more likely one of the NAM's exciting outlier solutions. GFS at hrs 30 and 36 already appears to be much quicker with the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Will be shocked if it shows anything close to this at 0z. Maybe if the gfs has something similar would I think it's onto something. Otherwise its just ON something Ha! The Never Accurate Model at its best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Ha! The Never Accurate Model at its best. Well, at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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