NEG NAO Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Gfs 18z looks better then 12z...closer to a euro solution...looks like around a inch for the area still a work in progress I like that HP that is developing in southeast Canada also the AO is beginning to tank and MJO is in phase 7 now and sundays storm is forcing the mid week clipper to slow down and redevelop south of the region http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 The Arctic Oscillation was in the process of tanking when this clipper rapidly developed into a full-fledged blizzard.Are you suggesting there are some similarities with this. 2005 has been thrown around quite a bit but the AO signal is far more tepid this year. The AO could be slightly negative during this clipper which can't hurt.Agree that a 1-3" event would be huge but playing this be ear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Are you suggesting there are some similarities with this. 2005 has been thrown around quite a bit but the AO signal is far more tepid this year. The AO could be slightly negative during this clipper which can't hurt. Agree that a 1-3" event would be huge but playing this be ear. I doubt he is. This is not a Jan 2005 set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 For those who are interested, below is the scatter diagram for all 6" or greater snowstorms for NYC that occurred during the second half of January (1950-2014): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Are you suggesting there are some similarities with this. 2005 has been thrown around quite a bit but the AO signal is far more tepid this year. The AO could be slightly negative during this clipper which can't hurt. Agree that a 1-3" event would be huge but playing this be ear. No. I just wanted to point what is a critical difference between that system and the upcoming clipper. My guess is that the upcoming clipper will probably have the potential to produce 1"-3" snowfall with some localized 4" amounts if the ECMWF is reasonably accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 This could be at least a nuisance event for much of the area if the clipper and vort track underneath the area, as the GFS and Euro suggest now. The NAM is further north but is probably wrong. Some Atlantic moisture should be thrown back west and could make for some 2-3" amounts. Also, now that I'm living in Texas, every snow potential is guaranteed to overproduce for the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 This could be at least a nuisance event for much of the area if the clipper and vort track underneath the area, as the GFS and Euro suggest now. The NAM is further north but is probably wrong. Some Atlantic moisture should be thrown back west and could make for some 2-3" amounts. Also, now that I'm living in Texas, every snow potential is guaranteed to overproduce for the NYC area. Did you get to Texas in one piece and...like Bud's mom in Urban Cowboy inquired...a scant 24 hours after her son's arrival just outside of Houston, "Did you get a job?" You might want to go to the plant tomorrow with your Uncle Bob... To this very day, I still think he should have went with Pamela...rather than Debra Winger's character...quality of life would likely have been a good deal higher...though the insecurities of being a kept man and living off her money may well have proven difficult challenges. Currently 22 F in the Mt. Sinai area...dew point 17 F... humidity 78%...winds calm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Did you get to Texas in one piece and...like Bud's mom in Urban Cowboy inquired...a scant 24 hours after her son's arrival just outside of Houston, "Did you get a job?" You might want to go to the plant tomorrow with your Uncle Bob... To this very day, I still think he should have went with Pamela...rather than Debra Winger's character...quality of life would likely have been a good deal higher...though the insecurities of being a kept man and living off her money may well have proven difficult challenges. Currently 22 F in the Mt. Sinai area...dew point 17 F... humidity 78%...winds calm. Well, I suppose the cat has that one's tongue... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 No. I just wanted to point what is a critical difference between that system and the upcoming clipper. My guess is that the upcoming clipper will probably have the potential to produce 1"-3" snowfall with some localized 4" amounts if the ECMWF is reasonably accurate. You are as smart as anyone here; but that's called hedging your bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 You are as smart as anyone here; but that's called hedging your bet. There's still too much uncertainty for my comfort. I am fairly confident this will be a less than 6" event given the pattern and very likely less than 4" in most of the area. I'm still not sure about the track. Somewhat more snowfall than the 1/6 clipper is what I'm thinking right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Clipper comes to life just a bit at hour 84 on the 0z NAM...rapidly expanding precip field...7 AM Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 There's still too much uncertainty for my comfort. I am fairly confident this will be a less than 6" event given the pattern and very likely less than 4" in most of the area. I'm still not sure about the track. Somewhat more snowfall than the 1/6 clipper is what I'm thinking right now. There's no problem hedging your bet...we all do...especially because a snowless winter will invariably make you gun shy...I just thought the 6 qualifications in one sentence were noteworthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 There's no problem hedging your bet...we all do...especially because a snowless winter will invariably make you gun shy...I just thought the 6 qualifications in one sentence were noteworthy. It sounds like I set some kind of hedging record without my having realized it. Hopefully, the clipper will overperform so that the qualifications-to-snowfall ratio won't be too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 It sounds like I set some kind of hedging record without my having realized it. Hopefully, the clipper will overperform so that the qualifications-to-snowfall ratio won't be too high. I think the hedging record is held by Jack Torrance while laboring at The Overlook... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Clipper comes to life just a bit at hour 84 on the 0z NAM...rapidly expanding precip field...7 AM Wed. It looks like it transferring to a developing coastal by the Delmarva on the last frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 It looks like it transferring to a developing coastal by the Delmarva on the last frame. Once in a blue moon those things can undergo rapid intensification; from Long Island to Downeast Maine something might yet happen...you never know....from the city south & west...probably just snow showers or a period of light (2 or 3 inches) snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Did you get to Texas in one piece and...like Bud's mom in Urban Cowboy inquired...a scant 24 hours after her son's arrival just outside of Houston, "Did you get a job?" You might want to go to the plant tomorrow with your Uncle Bob... To this very day, I still think he should have went with Pamela...rather than Debra Winger's character...quality of life would likely have been a good deal higher...though the insecurities of being a kept man and living off her money may well have proven difficult challenges. Currently 22 F in the Mt. Sinai area...dew point 17 F... humidity 78%...winds calm. If I would've made it down here in a state like that, I guess then I would've really made it. But yeah, new job and I guess instead of me complaining about getting rained on in January and the 2/13/14 storm, I'll be complaining about weeks of 100+ degree heat in July. When I got here today it was 72 degrees outside and I promptly changed from my hoodie and jeans to a T-shirt and shorts. I figure I'll enjoy the nice couple of months here before the hellish late spring and summer arrive. And maybe I'll catch a nice severe event or two (tornadoes happen around here but not like what happens further north in TX) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 If I would've made it down here in a state like that, I guess then I would've really made it. But yeah, new job and I guess instead of me complaining about getting rained on in January and the 2/13/14 storm, I'll be complaining about weeks of 100+ degree heat in July. When I got here today it was 72 degrees outside and I promptly changed from my hoodie and jeans to a T-shirt and shorts. I figure I'll enjoy the nice couple of months here before the hellish late spring and summer arrive. And maybe I'll catch a nice severe event or two (tornadoes happen around here but not like what happens further north in TX) If you are east of the proverbial "dry line"...double the summer misery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Clipper redevelops off of the NJ coast. A few inches on the GFS for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I think the hedging record is held by Jack Torrance while laboring at The Overlook... Given what confronted him, it's understandable. The GFS's run-to-run inconsistency doesn't compare to his situation. But things could still change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Clipper redevelops off of the NJ coast. A few inches on the GFS for the area. The NCEP site is only out to 72 hours on my computer...I guess that confirms what they have been telling me...I'm a woman after my time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Clipper redevelops off of the NJ coast. A few inches on the GFS for the area. Roughly 4 -8 " on Long Island as .5"- .75" qpf falls, using a 10:1 ratio. NYC - west is closer to about half of that at 2-4". Eastern locations will def be the jackpot areas for this type of system so there is no surprise there.. Anyway, I really like our chances with this. In many ways I share snowgoose's enthusiasm. This is a very nice setup aloft as well. Best run from the GFS with this system by far. Nice to see things trending better well inside 100 hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 The NCEP site is only out to 72 hours on my computer...I guess that confirms what they have been telling me...I'm a woman after my time... Parts of the Island see more than 0.50" qpf on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Once in a blue moon those things can undergo rapid intensification; from Long Island to Downeast Maine something might yet happen...you never know....from the city south & west...probably just snow showers or a period of light (2 or 3 inches) snow. That turned out to be a nice little hit on the global model for Long Island & the Cape...temperatures at the surface look borderline...but this is one of the few cases where time of year and intensity of precip should be sufficient to overcome that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Parts of the Island see more than 0.50" qpf on the GFS. It slowed down just a bit too; allowing it to get its act together just a bit...it hits that Gulf Stream...and you could have a rapidly blossoming precip field...there also seems to be a bit of blocking in place to slow everything down just a fraction as the thing slowly exits stage right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Gfs looks too warm at the surface (should be colder) but surprisingly good trends during a much more reasonable time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Gfs looks too warm at the surface (should be colder) but surprisingly good trends during a much more reasonable time frame. I mean for the Island for example...looks like 850 mb temps around -4 C or -5 C...you figure late January...NE surface flow...track to the south by at least 50 miles...should be a mostly snow event...places like Manhattan and urban areas...they do sometimes have problems getting the snow to stick when it is borderline...but the countryside you would figure snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Gfs looks too warm at the surface (should be colder) but surprisingly good trends during a much more reasonable time frame. Yea the track doesn't support a "warm" solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Canadian only out to 48....not only have I not seen a good solution in the mid range from it since about 1911...it now runs like a half hour slower than it use to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 0z GGEM is really nice for the clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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