IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 If you live in Northern NJ I wouldn't expect to see a flake out of this. The high res modeling is very consistent in drying up the snow as it moves into NJ and the coastal takes over. The HRRR wants to give some light snow to the city and immediate surrounding areas around 2AM but that's at the very unreliable tail end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The NAM also has the enhanced area around 2AM but a little further NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The 12z RGEM has it too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 What is the start time? Thanks 5-6pm Earlier then that, probably between 12 noon and 2pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Earlier then that, probably between 12 noon and 2pm looks like precip has reached Philly, so 2-4 pm seems to be a good bet if it progresses at its current rate... by the way, does anyone know what happened to the great Sacrus thread with all the radars and maps for storm tracking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Has anything changed with the clipper for the NYC/LI area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 looks like precip has reached Philly, so 2-4 pm seems to be a good bet if it progresses at its current rate... by the way, does anyone know what happened to the great Sacrus thread with all the radars and maps for storm tracking? Found it, should be pinned at the top i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Radar looks good for southern NJ ATM. Def possible for them to see over 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 RAP 18 hour total precip. Green line is 1" snow.....so extreme SENJ maybe 2-3". Aside from that, not much of anything up here. It does tend to be pretty unreliable this far out, however the hi-res NAM gives us barely anything as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Partly sunny on the upper west side. This looks like another little event for dca/bwi and extreme south jersey. Expecting a coating here in the city at work maybe a half inch at home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Very light flurries in raritan center now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Partly sunny on the upper west side. This looks like another little event for dca/bwi and extreme south jersey. Expecting a coating here in the city at work maybe a half inch at home It's underachieving there too at least based on the ground obs, Dulles has only had 1.8 inches and DCA is raining, the radar looks way worse than what's being reported by many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Nws busted on temps today atleast imby the high for western Nassau was 33 and it's 40 here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Dry air winning the battle north of phl. Be shocked now if we get more then a dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 There goes my money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Nws busted on temps today atleast imby the high for western Nassau was 33 and it's 40 here now. Strange. I'm in western Nassau, too, and I'm at 36 according to the NWS and AW. But their temps have been forecasted too low the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The radar is painful to look at if you live north of central NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 There goes my money Hopefully Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Now you know why I said earlier today that you would be lucky to see a flake if you live in NNJ. We're under partly cloudy skies here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 All in all the models did quite well with this one. They consistently showed almost nothing north of southern NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 duplicate - deleted, although I can see from the map above that they updated it between 3 pm and 5 pm to reduce accumulations from 1-2" for most of Central/North Jersey to <1"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The area of snow extending back towards ABE and south of TTN may still swing through after 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Mt. Holly not budging on snowfall forecasts, which are still 1-2" for Central/North Jersey, although one has to be concerned seeing the precip not moving north for a few hours... .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...A MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN VIRGINIA ATMID AFTERNOON. THE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE UPPERDELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY BETWEEN ABOUT 700 PM AND 900 PMTHIS EVENING. THE BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION ISEXPECTED TO PRECEDE THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM BY ABOUT AN HOUR OR SO.WE CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE SNOW INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURSTHROUGHOUT MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE ARRIVAL OF LIGHT SNOW MAYTAKE UNTIL AFTER DARK IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THEPRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO OVERTAKE THE DRY AIR THAT IS IN PLACE.WE HAVE GENERALLY MAINTAINED THE SNOWFALL FORECAST THAT WE HAVE BEENCARRYING ALL DAY. IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR REASONABLE. THE ONLYNOTABLE CHANGE IS THAT WE HAVE INCREASED ACCUMULATIONS INTO THE 1TO 2 INCH RANGE FOR SUSSEX COUNTY IN DELAWARE. AS PRECIPITATIONRATES HAVE INCREASED, THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION HASLESSENED THERE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 All forcasts , based on radar returns, will bust badly. its no wonder this thread is dead. 3/4 of NJ is dead zone & as this entire NYC corridor. looks like we are the dry transfer zone & then the SLP will head ene and away from the coast. Would be surprised to see a snow shower in NYC tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 All forcasts , based on radar returns, will bust badly. its no wonder this thread is dead. 3/4 of NJ is dead zone & as this entire NYC corridor. looks like we are the dry transfer zone & then the SLP will head ene and away from the coast. Would be surprised to see a snow shower in NYC tonight Upton is going to bust as well. They have me in the 1"+ color. Expecting nothing at the point not even flurries. It was a near miss though only 50 miles further north and we would have done well in the 2-4" range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Looks like it might be finally advancing northward now on radar. Too little too late most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I'm not expecting anything here, maybe a flurry. It was close though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 DOA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Models show light snow developing later on for the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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