TwcMan Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I still can't read those black and white maps after all these years haha. What does it show amount-wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Well it must have been overdue...though those b&w graphics are the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Cannot tell much from the UKMET through 72 on the precip but its similar to the GFS at 500 over IA/MO/IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Philly and DC gets a good amount of snow. NYC gets a little snow from the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 On 1/18/2015 at 5:08 AM, Snow88 said: Philly and DC gets a good amount of snow. NYC gets a little snow from the GGEM. The GFS is strange as it's going for rain/snow mix for philly and south to DC... even with 850s and thickness good. It keeps the surface temps unusually warm considering the setup... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 On 1/18/2015 at 5:08 AM, Snow88 said: Philly and DC gets a good amount of snow. NYC gets a little snow from the GGEM. It would be something if the clipper trends so far south that we get screwed. Seems unlikely, but it wouldn't shock me with the way this winter is going. Hopefully EURO will continue to look good tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 On 1/18/2015 at 5:08 AM, Snow88 said: Philly and DC gets a good amount of snow. NYC gets a little snow from the GGEM. 5 minutes ago you said it was "really nice"...now its just a "little snow"...I feel cheated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 On 1/18/2015 at 5:15 AM, winterwx21 said: It would be something if the clipper trends so far south that we get screwed. Seems unlikely, but it wouldn't shock me with the way this winter is going. Hopefully EURO will continue to look good tonight. Wouldn't be surprising. It happened a couple weeks ago with the last one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 On 1/18/2015 at 5:20 AM, Plfdwxdude said: Wouldn't be surprising. It happened a couple weeks ago with the last one. The difference is this one has the potential to turn the corner up the coast, that one did not...this could give everyone something from DCA to Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 On 1/18/2015 at 5:08 AM, Snow88 said: Philly and DC gets a good amount of snow. NYC gets a little snow from the GGEM. Let me tell you something about the Canadian model...and this comes straight from the heart...its a piece of cr ap model outside of 24 hours...and no reasonable person can argue the contrary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 On 1/18/2015 at 5:22 AM, Pamela said: Let me tell you something about the Canadian model...and this comes straight from the heart...its a piece of cr ap model outside of 24 hours...and no reasonable person can argue the contrary. It's not a piece of crap when it agrees with the other models. All of the models are now digging this baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I just looked at the Canadian PCPN type loop. The heavier snow goes through central Jersey. Just a hair south of NYC. It's very close and certainly a huge improvement over previous Canadian runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 On 1/18/2015 at 5:27 AM, Snow88 said: It's not a piece of crap when it agrees with the other models. I spent 10 minutes trying to set up a syllogism to logically deconstruct this...but failed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Euro looks like the GGEM. Mid Atlantic does better than our area. NYC area gets scraped on the run. This run really digged the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 On 1/18/2015 at 6:10 AM, Morris said: Euro?haven't seen it but mark my words,for the first time this winter, strong educated feeling trend will be our friend it will maintain or raise the QPF. wait 15 minutes and you can thank me afterwards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 On 1/18/2015 at 5:27 AM, Snow88 said: It's not a piece of crap when it agrees with the other models. All of the models are now digging this baby. Which would you say is heavier....a pound of feathers or a pound of steel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 On 1/18/2015 at 6:14 AM, Snow88 said: Euro looks like the GGEM. Mid Atlantic does better than our area. NYC area gets scraped on the run. This run really digged the low. Typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Overall synoptic pattern looks similar to the 12z run of the ECMWF, but the actual vort associated with the clipper evolves in a completely different manner. FWIW: NYC doesn't see a flake from the clipper on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Let's see what models show by Mon night oz suite ...as we all know with clippers ..can be tricky ..and many times is a pure nowcast event ..just my opinion .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 We root for clippers to really dig so we have the potential of getting a bigger storm, but when a clipper digs more there's also the risk of it going so far south that we get nothing. I'd rather it track a little more north. Wouldn't get a bigger storm, but we'd get our typical coating to 2 inches clipper. In a winter like this in which we're starving for snow, just an inch makes people happy. Now I'm concerned that we might get absolutely nothing. I hope tonight's EURO is wrong. Still 72 hours to go, so a lot of time for things to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Need more disco in 1/18 - 1/19 thread....HRRR really ices nyc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 The spread is big at 84 hours on the GFS ensembles...6 members are more amplified than the Op GFS, 2 are so amplified they almost look like they're going to produce a cutter...4 are less amplified, 2 are almost identical. The 4 less amped members have almost no storm entirely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 ...waiting for doorman to squash any potential that this might have..he is DOCTOR NO this winter!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Looks like the nam, gfs, euro all lost the snow for us on this clipper.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I actually thought the EPS from 0z looked slightly better with this than 12z. If you can see the indv. members, 12z had 1 maybe 2 that really deepened this thing. Now the 0z has maybe 3 or 4. Curious to see what 12z shows today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 GFS develops a weak low offshore. Better organized than last run but not there yet. Light snow for everyone but the surface is pretty warm for everyone.NYC just gets flurries while a little more precip for the mid atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 12z GGEM has the Clipper but it's way south. NYC is high and dry. Even Philly on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Any reason why it's heading further south on models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 On 1/18/2015 at 4:46 PM, TwcMan said: Any reason why it's heading further south on models? The more wrapped up and strength of today's storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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