metTURNEDpro Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Most global models are suggesting a clipper may drop southeast from the Alberta, Canada region on Wednesday, and redevelop off the coast off New Jersey. Euro seems cold enough but redevelops it kinda late, GFS was a tad warmer but many model runs to go. Please post your discussion down low and model runs... This is my first time making a thread and hopefully it's good luck. If we do end up getting snow please let me make the possible snow threads for this winter...haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metTURNEDpro Posted January 16, 2015 Author Share Posted January 16, 2015 18z GFS completely fizzles the system. No snow at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Don't get your hopes up with clippers. They rarely work out very well around here. But hopefully, we can get a 1-3" deal out of the Wednesday system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 I hear clipper is still on the maps; let's hope to eek out 1-2 inches of snow .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Euro brings clipper furthur south and has it redevelop off Delaware coast. If this happens it will bring snows to NY/NJ. This is a result of the Sunday storm shunting it south on the Euro. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Euro brings clipper furthur south and has it redevelop off Delaware coast. If this happens it will bring snows to NY/NJ. This is a result of the Sunday storm shunting it south on the Euro. Rossi Plus an inverted trough feature hanging back across NJ. That will move around on the models between now and Wednesday but something to keep an eye on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Plus an inverted trough feature hanging back across NJ. That will move around on the models between now and Wednesday but something to keep an eye on 12Z Nam Shows the clipper redeveloping further south at 84 FWIW http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015011712&fh=72&xpos=0&ypos=333 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 12Z Nam Shows the clipper redeveloping further south at 84 FWIW http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015011712&fh=72&xpos=0&ypos=333 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 12Z Nam Shows the clipper redeveloping further south at 84 FWIW http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015011712&fh=72&xpos=0&ypos=333 The pattern to me argues that clipper should get its act together much better than most of the guidance has been showing, the Euro and GFS try desperately with it, but it never really comes to together, some of their ensembles however look better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 I hear 12z gfs ..only flurries ..let's see what euro ..shows .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 I hear 12z gfs ..only flurries ..let's see what euro ..shows .. The VV through the area was fine . The model QPF output is weak . It should catch up . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Clipper looks real good on the 12z euro. Throws some Atlantic moisture back also...2-4 for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Clipper looks real good on the 12z euro. Throws some Atlantic moisture back also...2-4 for the area Sweet that's what I like to hear. A nice 4" event would get us right out of this slump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 I am more excited over the potential of this than any storm so far this winter...this one has the most potential I thing to trend stronger as we get into the next 2 days, the combination of the pseudo 50/50 and ridge out west enable the shortwave to dig. and it should take a near perfect track for us and has some potential to redevelop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metTURNEDpro Posted January 17, 2015 Author Share Posted January 17, 2015 I am more excited over the potential of this than any storm so far this winter...this one has the most potential I thing to trend stronger as we get into the next 2 days, the combination of the pseudo 50/50 and ridge out west enable the shortwave to dig. and it should take a near perfect track for us and has some potential to redevelopthats what I like to hear goose. At least we got the euro on board because GFS imo sucks. Hope it keeps trending stronger just looked at the euro it looks good for a moderate snow event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Let's hope the gfs catches up to the euro ..remb ..this rain event we getting tomm.. Euro had rain for days ..and gfs ..showed nada..then gfs caught up ...let's see what happens .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metTURNEDpro Posted January 17, 2015 Author Share Posted January 17, 2015 I am more excited over the potential of this than any storm so far this winter...this one has the most potential I thing to trend stronger as we get into the next 2 days, the combination of the pseudo 50/50 and ridge out west enable the shortwave to dig. and it should take a near perfect track for us and has some potential to redevelopsnowgoose any chance this thing blows up off the coast? I like the nam where it is at 84 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 snowgoose any chance this thing blows up off the coast? I like the nam where it is at 84 hrs http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2005/22-Jan-05.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metTURNEDpro Posted January 17, 2015 Author Share Posted January 17, 2015 http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2005/22-Jan-05.htmlnice thanks NAO, seems like the potential is there. It looks cold enough for snow especially if dynamics are there. Can't wait to see the 0z runs hopefully the 18z GFS shows some change!Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2005/22-Jan-05.html The Arctic Oscillation was in the process of tanking when this clipper rapidly developed into a full-fledged blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Is this definitely going to be all snow for the coast? As of now nws has a rain /snow mix and a high of 37 for western Long island!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metTURNEDpro Posted January 17, 2015 Author Share Posted January 17, 2015 Is this definitely going to be all snow for the coast? As of now nws has a rain /snow mix and a high of 37 for western Long island!!!i wouldn't worry about the temps, if the storm redevelops off the coast, dynamic cooling would lower the temperatures to 32 or lower for it to be all snow. If it fizzles it out like the GFS is depicting it to be than it'll be light taint snow showers not accumulating whatsoever! Hoping for a slower storm with a redevelopment off the coast of Jersey... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 I am more excited over the potential of this than any storm so far this winter...this one has the most potential I thing to trend stronger as we get into the next 2 days, the combination of the pseudo 50/50 and ridge out west enable the shortwave to dig. and it should take a near perfect track for us and has some potential to redevelop I so appreciate mets like you that do not model hug but look at the overall synoptic pattern to prognosticate. That is true meteorology! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Is this definitely going to be all snow for the coast? As of now nws has a rain /snow mix and a high of 37 for western Long island!!! The 37° figure is probably a blend of the guidance. The GFS MOS shows a high temperature of 38° for ISP. The 12z ECMWF would be all frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metTURNEDpro Posted January 17, 2015 Author Share Posted January 17, 2015 I so appreciate mets like you that do not model hug but look at the overall synoptic pattern to prognosticate. That is true meteorology!agreed not to gas his head up but snowgoose is my fav poster here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Is this definitely going to be all snow for the coast? As of now nws has a rain /snow mix and a high of 37 for western Long island!!! from Upton afternoon AFD THEN CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WITH 12Z ECMWF FORECASTING UP TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF...WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL VORT PASSING NEARBY OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY A SNOW EVENT IF IT DOES INDEED MATERIALIZE DUE TO ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT. POPS UPPED FROM PREVIOUS...AND WITH COORDINATION FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES...CAPPED POPS AT HIGH CHANCE FOR NOW. ANY SHIFT IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE...WITH EITHER CATEGORICAL POPS IN A LOW QPF EVENT...TO A DRY FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Eps pretty much agrees with the op regarding the clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 from Upton afternoon AFD THEN CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WITH 12Z ECMWF FORECASTING UP TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF...WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL VORT PASSING NEARBY OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY A SNOW EVENT IF IT DOES INDEED MATERIALIZE DUE TO ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT. POPS UPPED FROM PREVIOUS...AND WITH COORDINATION FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES...CAPPED POPS AT HIGH CHANCE FOR NOW. ANY SHIFT IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE...WITH EITHER CATEGORICAL POPS IN A LOW QPF EVENT...TO A DRY FORECAST. Very nice AFD. Looks good to me, at least from this point in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Looks like a 1"-3" type system. In a bad winter like this year, we'll take anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Gfs 18z looks better then 12z...closer to a euro solution...looks like around a inch for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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