Hoosier Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I think even if you looked at the 00z/12z runs of the main global models you will still see that the models are erratic with no rhyme or reason. Not saying that I want to go back to 07-08 days with the models but at least everyone knew the bias of the models then. Come on, makes it more fun when you don't know the biases. I get frustrated with them (there have been some particularly frustrating examples this winter) but it is what it is. I can't tell you where I saw it or to what magnitude it was but I saw some documentation a while back to back up what I said about the model skill scores going up over time. Unfortunately, can't remember if it was 500 mb heights or some other way of scoring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Why so angry? Angry? Hardly anrgy. Just stating facts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Why so angry? are you new? he's been playing the whole models suck card for the better part of a decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 lots of butthurt todayMost of it fanned by you. I don't understand why people continue to take your bait. You haven't been a serious weather poster in 2 years and it sucks 'cause you know your stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 See, I disagree. There is no debating that the pattern has been full of nuisance events and nothing more, but we have had over 13 inches of snow from this snoozer pattern in January. I not only measure snow but I also do the liquid melted in the snow (which gives a qpf verification) so its quite easy to see how the models did. They have sucked. The ridiculous oscillatons of hundreds of miles (north and south, east and west) & tenths of inches of liquid qpf (up and down) have not been getting resolved until the snow starts to fly. I am one of the few who does not mind this cycle at all, thats not the issue. My thing is...if you think that there is going to be ANY sort of consensus when a big storm finally does brew... I think a bit of an exaggeration here. There haven't been any really huge shifts that close to verification that I can think of....certainly not hundreds of miles either way. This clipper started showing signs of a southward shift yesterday and now the most southern of the solutions are coming together. There really isn't anything unusual about it. We are in a fast flow with a lot of waves coming thru....this kind of stuff happens. Honestly, down here, there have been no busts good or bad. Clippers behaved pretty much as predicted. The fact is we haven't had any large systems that would even give us an opportunity to experience a bust. You got 13" of snow in your back yard....how much of that was truly a surprise? 4 or 5 inches over 4 weeks of garbage systems and waves? Nothing unusual about that, especially when you are dealing with lake effect in there as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Most of it fanned by you. I don't understand why people continue to take your bait. You haven't been a serious weather poster in 2 years and it sucks 'cause you know your stuff. harry has been biting for years and you know i'm still good for 5-10% quality. for example this call (made wednesday) is looking good (if a bit bullish)... Final call for Sat/sun 2.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Fair enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I think a bit of an exaggeration here. There haven't been any really huge shifts that close to verification that I can think of....certainly not hundreds of miles either way. This clipper started showing signs of a southward shift yesterday and now the most southern of the solutions are coming together. There really isn't anything unusual about it. We are in a fast flow with a lot of waves coming thru....this kind of stuff happens. Honestly, down here, there have been no busts good or bad. Clippers behaved pretty much as predicted. The fact is we haven't had any large systems that would even give us an opportunity to experience a bust. You got 13" of snow in your back yard....how much of that was truly a surprise? 4 or 5 inches over 4 weeks of garbage systems and waves? Nothing unusual about that, especially when you are dealing with lake effect in there as well. Yesterday i was being almost whiffed to my north/ne and today it is a miss to the south? That is a several hundred mile shift. If that is not a huge shift i don't know what is? Not like we are discussing day 5 and beyond. Talking inside of 72hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Moved the model discussion to the banter thread...continue it there. Move mine. thanks.. I was posting when you did it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Come on, makes it more fun when you don't know the biases. I get frustrated with them (there have been some particularly frustrating examples this winter) but it is what it is. I can't tell you where I saw it or to what magnitude it was but I saw some documentation a while back to back up what I said about the model skill scores going up over time. Unfortunately, can't remember if it was 500 mb heights or some other way of scoring. The problem with the model skill scores is that it is a global score. So the GFS may be better at global forecasting but I'd say it has denigrated in North America. Not to say having a North America model is the way to go either, because we all know how the NAM is. Honestly though with the more precise resolution that the models have now compared to before to me has caused for little incorrect blips to throw the model into chaos and wild swings, where as these incorrect blips before were smoothed with lower resolution. I don't know how to correct this issue though within the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 harry has been biting for years and you know i'm still good for 5-10% quality. for example this call (made wednesday) is looking good (if a bit bullish)... Just wow! You seriously need help dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 once you stop taking Alek seriously, you find him to be quite entertaining, if not charming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 once you stop taking Alek seriously, you find him to be quite entertaining, if not charming thanks, buckeye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Yesterday i was being almost whiffed to my north/ne and today it is a miss to the south? That is a several hundred mile shift. If that is not a huge shift i don't know what is? Not like we are discussing day 5 and beyond. Talking inside of 72hrs. 72 hours out on a clipper, and what model did that? Certainly not the euro, not the gfs. I think the ggem had the wildest swing which is the one you might be talking about. But there are already people here who think the ggem is garbage outside of 48 hrs anyways. I just don't see anything spectacularly different this season then others in the model world. Like I said, give us something other than a garbage wave in the nw flow so we can at least put this debate to a real test.....that we can all agree on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I think a bit of an exaggeration here. There haven't been any really huge shifts that close to verification that I can think of....certainly not hundreds of miles either way. This clipper started showing signs of a southward shift yesterday and now the most southern of the solutions are coming together. There really isn't anything unusual about it. We are in a fast flow with a lot of waves coming thru....this kind of stuff happens. Honestly, down here, there have been no busts good or bad. Clippers behaved pretty much as predicted. The fact is we haven't had any large systems that would even give us an opportunity to experience a bust. You got 13" of snow in your back yard....how much of that was truly a surprise? 4 or 5 inches over 4 weeks of garbage systems and waves? Nothing unusual about that, especially when you are dealing with lake effect in there as well. I meant that in the days leading up to an event, yes there have been crazy oscillations of miles and qpf. It used to be once it was within 3-4 days, while certainly nothing was a lock, you at least had an idea if you looked good to get something or good to be totally missed, and thats not been the case this year. As for the snow, first of all I have gotten very little LES in Jan, its almost all been from this clippers/waves. I never said there is anything unusual about getting the waves (the one time we actually got 0.4" of LES was a surprise, as clear skies were predicted). Its not been 4-5" in 4 weeks, its been 13.4" in 2.5 weeks from numerous systems and pretty much every one was poorly modeled until the last minute. Talking everything from timing to qpf to placement of heavier/lighter snows in the area. DTX was always sending out updates to "lower accums" or "raise accums" as the nowtime was unfolding. Yes they are just clippers and small waves, but they have been poorly modeled until the last minute so I will certainly be very cautious when a big storm is modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 once you stop taking Alek seriously, you find him to be quite entertaining, if not charming Entertaining at times. I seriously lol'd at "the face only a mother could love".Charming? Too much turd talk for my taste Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I just don't see anything spectacularly different this season then others in the model world. it's called confirmation bias...harry thinks the models suck, he's been riding that horse for a decade, so every time snow (no matter how pathetic the system) shifts out of his backyard we have to hear all about the models sucking. You see a lot of the garbage posters on the east coast doing the same thing and it's always when the snow shifts away from their backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 72 hours out on a clipper, and what model did that? Certainly not the euro, not the gfs. I think the ggem had the wildest swing which is the one you might be talking about. But there are already people here who think the ggem is garbage outside of 48 hrs anyways. I just don't see anything spectacularly different this season then others in the model world. Like I said, give us something other than a garbage wave in the nw flow so we can at least put this debate to a real test.....that we can all agree on With southern stream events the euro seems to do better vs northern stream ofcourse the mid atlantic crew might disagree but that really is noise. The euro had the surface low just north of hoosier on yesterdays 12z and today it is in southern IN by the KY line. As for the rest ( something other then a garbage system ) i guess we will have to wait and see. So yeah i can agree with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 it's called confirmation bias...harry thinks the models suck, he's been riding that horse for a decade, so every time snow (no matter how pathetic the system) shifts out of his backyard we have to hear all about the models sucking. You see a lot of the garbage posters on the east coast doing the same thing and it's always when the snow shifts away from their backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Entertaining at times. I seriously lol'd at "the face only a mother could love". Charming? Too much turd talk for my taste it might have been a faux turd.... just say'n Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 As for the rest ( something other then a garbage system ) i guess we will have to wait and see. So yeah i can agree with that. might as well sit back, grab a drink, put your feet up.....this nw flow ain't going anywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Save it for yourself mr punt king. You need not say a word about anyone or anything. So fook off. Now roll your eyes at that. You know the wagons are having a rough time of it when weatherbo speaks up in agreement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 it might have been a faux turd.... just say'n some tapout clown up the block just got a greyhoud...aint nothing faux about those bombs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Models are tools....not forecasters Forecasters use multiple tools Hence, many of the pro forecasters (at WFO's) nailing the trend before the models did WRT the upcoming clipper Lack of sampled data and lack of sample size for models to analog off of create a ton of room for error...that is not gonna change any time soon If you only use a hammer to build a house....you are gonna get mighty frustrated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 some tapout clown up the block just got a greyhoud...aint nothing faux about those bombs Love The Geto Boys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Sitting in my office... Rest of the team in a meeting, catching up on this thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Sitting in my office... Rest of the team in a meeting, catching up on this thread... it's a weather board, sh*t can go down quick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Lotta love in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I have to agree with powerball on this one. Getting snow has not been a problem here. The problem is that the models have been terrible with every event with placement and strength of the qpf axis literally until showtime. Its not helping that there are NO big storms, but with as bad as the models have been with these little clippers/disturbances, I cant imagine how tense the board will be when we actually have a major storm to track. Will that ever happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Yesterday i was being almost whiffed to my north/ne and today it is a miss to the south? That is a several hundred mile shift. If that is not a huge shift i don't know what is? Not like we are discussing day 5 and beyond. Talking inside of 72hrs. Yep. It is ridiculous. Many others don't seem to notice how ridiculous the models are. Perhaps we notice the ridiculous amount of shifting they do for us here in Western Michigan. 24 hours ago the models had the Houghton Lake area getting pounded...today it's Indiana. I agree with many of the comments about a particular poster on here. He just instigates by saying "wagons west" with every little NAM run that comes out. So silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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