Ajdos Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Just awful... While I'm sure NWS branches expected shifts southward, I'm not sure if they expected GGEM/GFS/EURO-esque type of erratic shifts. I''m all for putting a blowtorch to every single model at this point to kill them with fire. They been unrealistically terrible with just about every storm the past at leSt 2 seasons... Agreed 100%... oh that upgrade on the GFS....SMH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 models have been fine, we're just stuck in an awful pattern with a low event ceiling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Agreed 100%... oh that upgrade on the GFS....SMH I think it was mentioned before that the Para-GFS' verification scores were worse than the old GFS. How do you upgrade anything to something that's worse (unless they did some more tweaking we don't know about)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Easy now folks, lets not see this turn into Accuweather during the dry winters we had a few years ago where people just got downright angry for no snow. Personally the models have not been too shabby, especially in the close range where they have really nailed dry slots I have to agree with powerball on this one. Getting snow has not been a problem here. The problem is that the models have been terrible with every event with placement and strength of the qpf axis literally until showtime. Its not helping that there are NO big storms, but with as bad as the models have been with these little clippers/disturbances, I cant imagine how tense the board will be when we actually have a major storm to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I think it was mentioned before that the Para-GFS' verification scores were worse than the old GFS. How do you upgrade anything to something that's worse (unless they did some more tweaking we don't know about)? OH, I meant downgrade.. sorry lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 when you are only in line for 1-3" from a super narrow band to begin with it doesn't take much in the way of a shift to take you out of the game plus we just now have near full sampling and the models are responding as literally every NWS office thought they would keep it together...not sure what you guys expected from this pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I have to agree with powerball on this one. Getting snow has not been a problem here. The problem is that the models have been terrible with every event with placement and strength of the qpf axis literally until showtime. Its not helping that there are NO big storms, but with as bad as the models have been with these little clippers/disturbances, I cant imagine how tense the board will be when we actually have a major storm to track. With every storm there is winners and losers. Problem is there has been no winners !! Just punts, waggons, and the lack of cold when something does brew. Sooner or later the cycle will break, to me with the new pattern emerging with the MJO heading in a different path for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 I have to agree with powerball on this one. Getting snow has not been a problem here. The problem is that the models have been terrible with every event with placement and strength of the qpf axis literally until showtime. Its not helping that there are NO big storms, but with as bad as the models have been with these little clippers/disturbances, I cant imagine how tense the board will be when we actually have a major storm to track. Yep to everything you said (heck, remember how poorly they handled the January 4th-5th storm last year?). The erratic shifts we've been seeing with these systems as of late in the short and medium range didn't happen nowhere near as frequently a few seasons ago, aside from the predictable NW shifts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 With every storm there is winners and losers. Problem is there has been no winners !! Just punts, waggons, and the lack of cold when something does brew. Sooner or later the cycle will break, to me with the new pattern emerging with the MJO heading in a different path for once. See, I disagree. There is no debating that the pattern has been full of nuisance events and nothing more, but we have had over 13 inches of snow from this snoozer pattern in January. I not only measure snow but I also do the liquid melted in the snow (which gives a qpf verification) so its quite easy to see how the models did. They have sucked. The ridiculous oscillatons of hundreds of miles (north and south, east and west) & tenths of inches of liquid qpf (up and down) have not been getting resolved until the snow starts to fly. I am one of the few who does not mind this cycle at all, thats not the issue. My thing is...if you think that there is going to be ANY sort of consensus when a big storm finally does brew... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Yep to everything you said (heck, remember how poorly they handled the January 4th-5th storm last year?). The erratic shifts we've been seeing with these systems as of late in the short and medium range didn't happen nowhere near as frequently a few seasons ago, aside from the predictable NW shifts... agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Yep to everything you said (heck, remember how poorly they handled the January 4th-5th storm last year?). The erratic shifts we've been seeing with these systems as of late in the short and medium range didn't happen nowhere near as frequently a few seasons ago, aside from the predictable NW shifts... people make these weenie posts every year and they're always garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I'm not sure how this would qualify as a complaint... But in any event, is this just a limited time deal, or is this a permanent change? My comment just didn't fit into any other thread. I thought it would be best put in this thread. I don't know if Weatherbell will have the free-access stuff for very long. It is quite interesting to see the correctly-plotted 13km GFS information, zoomed in. Too bad it's not as accurate as I thought it would be. The free access stuff is: GFS T1534 Global Surface Products and GFS T1534 Global Pressure Level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Sadly Alek's pessimistic thinking looks to continue to pay off in this pattern(hence the reason others are freaking out and he isn't). Have to hand it to you Alek. I was hoping this one could at least put out a narrow stripe of 3-5", but even that looks farfetched now lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Sadly Alek's pessimistic thinking looks to continue to pay off in this pattern(hence the reason others are freaking out and he isn't). Have to hand it to you Alek. I was hoping this one could at least put out a narrow stripe of 3-5", but even that looks farfetched now lol. Lol Between you and milli, he's like recruiting a team. Some solid draft picks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 people make these weenie posts every year and they're always garbage You have a point... Maybe just posting 2 week total QPF maps and complaining about how "dry" they are verbatim, or calling for torches because the 10-day EURO or GFS show one should be the standard for posts, yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Lol Between you and milli, he's like recruiting a team. Some solid draft picks mimilliman is solid my call looks ok and will probably fall right in line with what LOT is selling later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 You have a point... Maybe just posting 2 week total QPF maps and complaining about how "dry" they are verbatim, or calling for torches because the 10-day EURO or GFS show one should be the standard for posts, yes? sounds good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 lots of butthurt today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 sounds good Duly noted! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 So tired of this winter, bring on spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 So tired of this winter, bring on spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 You have a point... Maybe just posting 2 week total QPF maps and complaining about how "dry" they are verbatim, or calling for torches because the 10-day EURO or GFS show one should be the standard for posts, yes? lol. Your point about the models was completely valid. Yes, every year people DO post exaggerations about the models, just as they post exaggerations about the longrange every day. But a lot of times complaints hinge on weenie snow maps or ratios failing to meet expectations. Its as simple as this. I have been looking at model qpf and recording snow & liquid equivalent for well over a decade. Placement/verification of qpf, at least locally, has done very poorly this winter compared to any other winter. Theres no discernible trend (ie, the NW trend of 2007-08, the almost everything overperforming trend of 2013-14, the almost everything underpeforming trend of some previous winters), its just erratic. This is not a sour grapes post, just a personal observation. I have nothing to be sour about. Its been a garbage pattern and we have "scored" in it better than most. It just is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Nah and while you are at it, you could stop ****ting up threads with terrible posts. I am equally done with reading your misinformed bad posts especially about 10 day maps that have no chance of verifying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Great skiing weather let me tell you hit the slopes in Southeast Michigan it's beautiful out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 lol. Your point about the models was completely valid. Yes, every year people DO post exaggerations about the models, just as they post exaggerations about the longrange every day. But a lot of times complaints hinge on weenie snow maps or ratios failing to meet expectations. Its as simple as this. I have been looking at model qpf and recording snow & liquid equivalent for well over a decade. Placement/verification of qpf, at least locally, has done very poorly this winter compared to any other winter. Theres no discernible trend (ie, the NW trend of 2007-08, the almost everything overperforming trend of 2013-14, the almost everything underpeforming trend of some previous winters), its just erratic. This is not a sour grapes post, just a personal observation. I have nothing to be sour about. Its been a garbage pattern and we have "scored" in it better than most. It just is what it is. When comparing to over a decade ago, I think part of the problem is more models/more runs to look at. More potential for inconsistency. The ECMWF used to only run once a day, and other models twice a day instead of 4 times. Overall, the models are better than 10 or 15 years ago, but we tend to place more scrutiny on them when there's something to track in our backyards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 When comparing to over a decade ago, I think part of the problem is more models/more runs to look at. More potential for inconsistency. The ECMWF used to only run once a day, and other models twice a day instead of 4 times. Overall, the models are better than 10 or 15 years ago, but we tend to place more scrutiny on them when there's something to track in our backyards. I think even if you looked at the 00z/12z runs of the main global models you will still see that the models are erratic with no rhyme or reason. Not saying that I want to go back to 07-08 days with the models but at least everyone knew the bias of the models then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 When comparing to over a decade ago, I think part of the problem is more models/more runs to look at. More potential for inconsistency. The ECMWF used to only run once a day, and other models twice a day instead of 4 times. Overall, the models are better than 10 or 15 years ago, but we tend to place more scrutiny on them when there's something to track in our backyards. There is no consistency with them. How anyone can even attempt to defend them is beyond me. Has nothing to do with more models/runs to look at. No new models have come out in the past 10yrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 eyeroll.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 eyeroll.gif Save it for yourself mr punt king. You need not say a word about anyone or anything. So fook off. Now roll your eyes at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Save it for yourself mr punt king. You need not say a word about anyone or anything. So fook off. Now roll your eyes at that. Why so angry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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