Whitelakeroy Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 You think so? I thought typically, with us being in the subsidence zone of the developing east coast storm, we always more often than not end up with nice weather. Granted, toady I didn't think that would be the case with the shortwave rounding the back side of the trough to the west... Oh yeah ... that is one thing I recall about the winter of 95 we had those nasty raw days while the EC was getting slammed. I couldn't even go out and ignore it if you know what I mean. I think this one is just significantly further east with Cape Cod being ground zero. The HRRR only shows a few inches in NYC which to me would make sense given our weather today but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 26 and drizzle....i know its not rare ... but ma nature seems to be in "pile on" mode at this juncture of the winter lol The pacific is preventing the type of setup required for Texas hook lows.... Even clippers won't seem to gel. We are looking at a sub 24 inch winter potentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The pacific is preventing the type of setup required for Texas hook lows.... Even clippers seem to gel. We are looking at a sub 24 inch winter potentially. I guess until we hit 24.0", anythings possible, but the chance of that happening at this point is probably 5% MAX. Today is the halfway mark of the snow-season, exactly, and snowfall is below normal but not by that much. thru 1/26 Detroit.....17.4" Lansing...18.4" White Lk..21.7" Flint.........22.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I guess until we hit 24.0", anythings possible, but the chance of that happening at this point is probably 5% MAX. Today is the halfway mark of the snow-season, exactly, and snowfall is below normal but not by that much. thru 1/26 Detroit.....17.4" Lansing...18.4" White Lk..21.7" Flint.........22.5" It's hard to say, Detroit still has 6 more inches of wiggle room left. This sure has been a nickle and dime winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 It's sort of odd, but I'm actually enjoying this winter more than last year up to this point. Even though we're doing worse, it's the constant misses we saw last year of legit systems that made it pretty depressing despite relatively nice seasonal snowfall. I've given up on getting a warning criteria snowfall again this season, so I'm just trying to enjoy whatever comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 It's sort of odd, but I'm actually enjoying this winter more than last year up to this point. Even though we're doing worse, it's the constant misses we saw last year of legit systems that made it pretty depressing despite relatively nice seasonal snowfall. I've given up on getting a warning criteria snowfall again this season, so I'm just trying to enjoy whatever comes. Last winter was the best winter of my life..... December 2000 was pretty damn fun too, same with January 1999. Our biggest storm this winter has been about 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 It's sort of odd, but I'm actually enjoying this winter more than last year up to this point. Even though we're doing worse, it's the constant misses we saw last year of legit systems that made it pretty depressing despite relatively nice seasonal snowfall. I've given up on getting a warning criteria snowfall again this season, so I'm just trying to enjoy whatever comes. honestly....I'm fine with the winter. I would have traded the November snows for some more holiday season snows....but other than that...whatever...no big deal. I have had some great experiences the last handful of years between GHD and the never ending stat padding last year. This winter hasn't been exciting from a weenie standpoint but I am enjoying the gentle detox. (hard to admit, but I am enjoying following the EC storm this week) oh yeah...my 26 and drizzle has transitioned to some wet flakes another ironical fact is how many different days I have actually seen flakes fly this winter....its a very high number which is not even close to being reflected in my total snowfall thus far...hell, I think November alone had something like 16 days with flakes flying at my house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Agree Gilbert. That was a good post...well, expect the GHD part. It's been interesting watching this Northeast storm. Euro is going to fail big time in some places out there. Doc isn't what it used to be for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Agree Gilbert. That was a good post...well, expect the GHD part. It's been interesting watching this Northeast storm. Euro is going to fail big time in some places out there. Doc isn't what it used to be for sure. lol...yeah I hear on the GHD and TWC keeps showing the 12Z Euro run in their suite....clearly making sure their arse is covered it is crazy to see some of the differences in the models though (at least and oddly enough through the late game model runs)....granted a nor is a volatile set up in itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 lol...yeah I hear on the GHD and TWC keeps showing the 12Z Euro run in their suite....clearly making sure their arse is covered it is crazy to see some of the differences in the models though (at least and oddly enough through the late game model runs)....granted a nor is a volatile set up in itself Yeah, absolutely. So many flips and flops by the models in a relatively short amount of time. Euro has been very consistent, but it's western reach will be a total fail. Feel bad for the Philly folks, as well as for parts of NJ and ALB's CWA. NYC probably still makes out pretty well, but the 3 foot modeled/human predictions for there are a long shot at best right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Philly forecast went from 10-18" this afternoon, to 6-12" earlier this evening, to 2-4" on the newest update. I feel bad for the mets as the public is not going to be forgiving. Tough situation to be in when you had the Euro holding out like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Philly forecast went from 10-18" this afternoon, to 6-12" earlier this evening, to 2-4" on the newest update. I feel bad for the mets as the public is not going to be forgiving. Tough situation to be in when you had the Euro holding out like that. Wow the euro caved. That was my go to model this year. The GFS won. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Met from NWS Mount Holly actually apologizing on Twitter My deepest apologies to many key decision makers and so many members of the general public. You made a lot of tough decisions expecting us to get it right, and we didn't. Once again, I'm sorry. https://twitter.com/GarySzatkowski Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Met from NWS Mount Holly actually apologizing on Twitter https://twitter.com/GarySzatkowski Ouch, yeah...it's a tough gig. Euro was such a failure for some of those offices out east (and the NAM too at times)...especially for those on the western side of things. Live and learn I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 One of the worst failures I can remember from the Euro in regards to the EC storm. If I lived in Philly/NYC I would have felt pretty comfortable knowing the Euro had my back up until late this evening. Talk about a kick in the crotch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Picked up a dusting of snow tonight. I now have 4.8 inches of snow on the season. Only 1.1 inches of that has fallen since our 3.5 inch snowfall in November. Last year at this time we had close to 15 inches on the season. Surprisingly, most of our local mets are still predicting that we end up with about the same amount of snowfall we got last year. Must be expecting the big one to come this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 LOL.. THis is funny- https://gigaom.com/2015/01/26/silent-night-facebook-instagram-go-down-for-snowmadgeddon/ http://rt.com/news/226535-facebook-instagram-down-websites/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Nice fat band south of LI........in the ocean. There it was all along Amazing the Euro was so far west with it. Eastern LI getting smoked...but the bands rot before hitting NYC. Brutal for them. Always fascinating watching these big NE storms with the boom or bust banding signatures. RI entering subsidence hell right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Well done GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Some area's are completely getting smoked (eastern LT/Conn/RI/Eastern Mass) which will most likely be the storm of the winter for those areas. Areas further west just got their biggest snow of the season but most weenies will be disappointed with 8-12". It is tough when the models are showing 24"+ and you only get 12". Sadly a 8-12" storm is nothing to sneeze at and most would have been ecstatic if that was what was forecasted/modeled. I learned the hard way with Dec 2007/Feb 2008 ... NEVER believe the modeled QPF ... EVER ... EVER ... EVER!!!! I cut the major storm modeled QPF totals by 1/2 and consider it an overachiever if I happen to exceed half of the modeled out on those major storms. Note: Clippers and nickel/dime storms are different as the QPF tends to be more like 3/4 instead of 1/2. NOTE: I am completely saying this about MBY. YBY the models maybe perfect and that is awesome. I am glad the models are great for you but IMBY the models SUCK with QPF 95% of the time for decent/major storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The chief meteorologist at the NWS in Mt. Holly, NJ just issued a public apology for the busted forecast out east. Talk about a bunch of disappointed wx fans out there. I'd rather have our craptastic winter of nothing than have a storm of the century that produces a run of the mill dud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Some area's are completely getting smoked (eastern LT/Conn/RI/Eastern Mass) which will most likely be the storm of the winter for those areas. Areas further west just got their biggest snow of the season but most weenies will be disappointed with 8-12". It is tough when the models are showing 24"+ and you only get 12". Sadly a 8-12" storm is nothing to sneeze at and most would have been ecstatic if that was what was forecasted/modeled. I learned the hard way with Dec 2007/Feb 2008 ... NEVER believe the modeled QPF ... EVER ... EVER ... EVER!!!! I cut the major storm modeled QPF totals by 1/2 and consider it an overachiever if I happen to exceed half of the modeled out on those major storms. Note: Clippers and nickel/dime storms are different as the QPF tends to be more like 3/4 instead of 1/2. NOTE: I am completely saying this about MBY. YBY the models maybe perfect and that is awesome. I am glad the models are great for you but IMBY the models SUCK with QPF 95% of the time for decent/major storms. that's usually true here as well. One exception was March '08. About 48 hours out snowfall maps were showing 20-24", (I'm talking not just the credible models but the earl baker clown maps too lol), Damn things nailed it. But yea, it's a rarity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The chief meteorologist at the NWS in Mt. Holly, NJ just issued a public apology for the busted forecast out east. Talk about a bunch of disappointed wx fans out there. I'd rather have our craptastic winter of nothing than have a storm of the century that produces a run of the mill dud. they hugged the wrong models. Honestly there were models screaming about this happening and they chose the most juicy ones to ride, ie the insane 18z nam that had something like 4" qpf. I posted yesterday late afternoon that the 18z rgem was showing light, (in comparison), snow fall for Philly, NJ, and NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 they hugged the wrong models. Honestly there were models screaming about this happening and they chose the most juicy ones to ride, ie the insane 18z nam that had something like 4" qpf. I posted yesterday late afternoon that the 18z rgem was showing light, (in comparison), snow fall for Philly, NJ, and NYC. Yeah, its tough when you have businesses, schools, etc closing due to your forecast, only to bust REAL hard. The public is going to be hard on them, and the weenies even harder. With the way the models have performed this winter, they were in a very unenviable position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Ouch, yeah...it's a tough gig. Euro was such a failure for some of those offices out east (and the NAM too at times)...especially for those on the western side of things. Live and learn I guess. Things got real ugly in the NYC and Philly forums last night when the 0Z NAM gave the confirmation of bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Things got real ugly in the NYC and Philly forums last night when the 0Z NAM gave the confirmation of bust. The banter thread in the NYC forum is on fire this morning too. Doesn't help when the LI folks are on there just rubbing it in big time. Different breed over there for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The NY Post headline "The King Is Dead !!".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 that's usually true here as well. One exception was March '08. About 48 hours out snowfall maps were showing 20-24", (I'm talking not just the credible models but the earl baker clown maps too lol), Damn things nailed it. But yea, it's a rarity. Oh yeah there are the storms that the models find that nut The January 2014 was everything the models showed IMBY ... 18" ... I now just consider those storms overachievers (but that's just me). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 they hugged the wrong models. Honestly there were models screaming about this happening and they chose the most juicy ones to ride, ie the insane 18z nam that had something like 4" qpf. I posted yesterday late afternoon that the 18z rgem was showing light, (in comparison), snow fall for Philly, NJ, and NYC. Monday morning quarterbacking here but the RGEM should've been a warning sign. From what people over there have said, it's usually a respectable model for northeast storms and it not going all-in perhaps should've caused more concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 A certain FB post by a popular met bashing TWC is just embarrassing and so unprofessional. I don't know how it would be possible to look any worse at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.