Geos Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 If you would have asked me if this was going to be a dull winter after having an active, wintry November - I probably would have said no! Been about the dullest winter I can remember. Not quite as bad as 11-12, but close so far. Dull has meant widespread deficits of moisture in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Parts of the EC may see hourly snowfall rates that exceed the largest snowfall event of 3.6" at MSP this winter. Now that blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Been a tough winter for us at NWS LOT forecasting wise. One of my coworkers came up with a motto today that's a variation of a phrase we use sometimes, 'If you can't forecast well, forecast often.' The new motto: "If you can't forecast well, bust often." Being from NYC, I really hate to be missing out on the storm there when we can't buy a bigger event this winter. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Snowy Jan? Yea but its been rather unimpressive. Unless you do some turd polishing. I never said it was impressive. I was talking the similarity to 90s winters. And snowfall IS above normal in January, and we will probably add to it before the month is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Been a tough winter for us at NWS LOT forecasting wise. One of my coworkers came up with a motto today that's a variation of a phrase we use sometimes, 'If you can't forecast well, forecast often.' The new motto: "If you can't forecast well, bust often." Being from NYC, I really hate to be missing out on the storm there when we can't buy a bigger event this winter. Sent from my SM-G900V You guys have rocked out quite a few great calls in an otherwise tricky season....long range temp verifications have been pretty horrible via the models and short range system tracks have been just as horrible via the models...throw in the kicker of not much in the way of big benchmark storms to really fall back on in this NW flow regime and that will make for a tough season. I lived up in Salem MA for awhile myself and a few buds keep sending me texts about how psyched they are for tomorrow/Tuesday....quite jealous....but it is what it is lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 It sucks seeing that storm on the east coast... That's probably going to exceed our seasonal snow total in 2 days. At least we will have some cool pics to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 It sucks seeing that storm on the east coast... That's probably going to exceed our seasonal snow total in 2 days. At least we will have some cool pics to look at. Our time will come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 It sucks seeing that storm on the east coast... That's probably going to exceed our seasonal snow total in 2 days. At least we will have some cool pics to look at. They will likely exceed my season total in 4-5 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Our time will come. I'm 35 years old and my biggest storm is around 16 inches.... I doubt I ever see a storm crack 20 inches in my life (locally). Meanwhile, Boston will see at least 5-10 storms break 20 inches in the next 50 years. That's climo though. Ironically, i was in Boston back in 2005? and we were under a warning for 12-24 inches. Ended up with 4. I was hot and heavy in the Boston threads during that deal, it was a rare coastal bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Side note: It's been such a crappy winter locally, I don't bother tracking my local snow totals. Generally I eyeball my totals... pointless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I'm 35 years old and my biggest storm is around 16 inches.... I doubt I ever see a storm crack 20 inches in my life (locally). Meanwhile, Boston will see at least 5-10 storms break 20 inches in the next 50 years. That's climo though. Ironically, i was in Boston back in 2005? and we were under a warning for 12-24 inches. Ended up with 4. I was hot and heavy in the Boston threads during that deal, it was a rare coastal bust. True. Wow. Talk about a bust. Speaking of which, anyone checked out Boston's point & click forecast? 10-14 inches tonight, 10-14 inches Tuesday, and 2-4 inches with locally higher amounts Tuesday night. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 This keeps me happy. Starting Friday through Wednesday, I'll be in that pink area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 True. Wow. Talk about a bust. Speaking of which, anyone checked out Boston's point & click forecast? 10-14 inches tonight, 10-14 inches Tuesday, and 2-4 inches with locally higher amounts Tuesday night. Impressive. Some how a dry slot worked into the system and snowfall rates were terrible through most of the event. It was early March 2004-2005-2006.... One of the three years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Some how a dry slot worked into the system and snowfall rates were terrible through most of the event. It was early March 2004-2005-2006.... One of the three years. March 2001 was the mother of all busts for the MA -NE crowd. Almost felt sorry for them. I still remember that day. The energy was diving in to our west and south and then was suppose to explode off the lower MA coast and head north. The forums were lit up for days about the potential. Crazy blog posts from JB, DT, and all the others. The storm came together too late and missed most of the MA and northeast. I believe it still smacked upstate NY and northern New England pretty hard though. ....I don't think Ji has been right since...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 March 2001 was the mother of all busts for the MA -NE crowd. Almost felt sorry for them. I still remember that day. The energy was diving in to our west and south and then was suppose to explode off the lower MA coast and head north. The forums were lit up for days about the potential. Crazy blog posts from JB, DT, and all the others. The storm came together too late and missed most of the MA and northeast. I believe it still smacked upstate NY and northern New England pretty hard though. ....I don't think Ji has been right since...lol Remember the WWBB meltdowns, JB's infamous line about the stratosphere...good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The east coast storm really puts the Midwest climate into perspective. I've had probably about 15 days with measurable snow so far in December and January for a total of about 15", many places on the east coast will get that same 15" in a few hours. Getting snowfall in the midwest is easy, getting it to snow at inch per hour rates for more than a couple hours at a time is difficult. What's a little funny to grasp is perspective. Folks on the fringes of the storm that may only see 5 or 6 inches of synoptic snow will feel screwed because areas a county or two east of them had close to 30". Yet that 5-6" "miss of a storm" is more than what people in the Midwest have synoptically seen all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The east coast storm really puts the Midwest climate into perspective. I've had probably about 15 days with measurable snow so far in December and January for a total of about 15", many places on the east coast will get that same 15" in a few hours. Getting snowfall in the midwest is easy, getting it to snow at inch per hour rates for more than a couple hours at a time is difficult. What's a little funny to grasp is perspective. Folks on the fringes of the storm that may only see 5 or 6 inches of synoptic snow will feel screwed because areas a county or two east of them had close to 30". Yet that 5-6" "miss of a storm" is more than what people in the Midwest have synoptically seen all season. We lose 75% of our moisture to a 1500 mile long convective line of showers that stretch from the southwest side of the low, all the way to Mexico City.Our best snow totals come from a thread the needle deformation band that robs surrounding areas of decent snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 We lose 75% of our moisture to a 1500 mile long convective line of showers that stretch from the southwest side of the low, all the way to Mexico City. Our best snow totals come from a thread the needle deformation band that robs surrounding areas of decent snow. Perfect example 1/1/2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Perfect example 1/1/2008. Yep and January 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I'm just gonna throw this up real quick and then take it down, because I'm not supposed to post it...but here's the 12z Euro snowfall map for southern/central New England. SE Mass gets destroyed. Pretty cool. Keep in mind the amounts are based on 10:1 ratios. Deleted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 That moisture from a gulf storm would end up resulting in Alabama trailer parks getting blown down, while we see 4-10 inches of snow. Jackpot of 11 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 That moisture from a gulf storm would end up resulting in Alabama trailer parks getting blown down, while we see 4-10 inches of snow. Jackpot of 11 inches. 11.95" just for Josh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 That moisture from a gulf storm would end up resulting in Alabama trailer parks getting blown down, while we see 4-10 inches of snow. Jackpot of 11 inches. What are the biggest synoptic systems for Detriot/Chicago/Indy areas on record? Total storm totals? We don't do that well with them either. I think I've only lived through 3/4 20+ inch synoptic storms in my lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 What are the biggest synoptic systems for Detriot/Chicago/Indy areas on record? Total storm totals? We don't do that well with them either. I think I've only lived through 3/4 20+ inch synoptic storms in my lifetime. Detroit: 24.5 Chicago: 23 Indianapolis: 16.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Detroit: 24.5 Chicago: 23 Indianapolis: 16.1 That's actually really good. Those are some nice totals. If seems the ingredients to get something of that magnitude is much more difficult than the east coast. Sometimes we get additional enhancement from lake ontario with NW/NE flows that help us get a few more inches in comparison to other regions. The GHD hit Chicago with 20+ too right? When was that 23" total? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 We lose 75% of our moisture to a 1500 mile long convective line of showers that stretch from the southwest side of the low, all the way to Mexico City. Our best snow totals come from a thread the needle deformation band that robs surrounding areas of decent snow. yea it's hard to beat having your neighbor be the atlantic ocean when you're north of 40. Granted, it can screw them at times as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 That's actually really good. Those are some nice totals. If seems the ingredients to get something of that magnitude is much more difficult than the east coast. Sometimes we get additional enhancement from lake ontario with NW/NE flows that help us get a few more inches in comparison to other regions. The GHD hit Chicago with 20+ too right? When was that 23" total? Yeah, GHD was over 20" for Chicago. The 23" occurred in January 1967. Indy's total is kinda low considering areas south of them (Evansville, Louisville, etc) have had storms over 20". It is more difficult to get the massive dumps and the ceiling on east coast events is higher than here, though every once in a while you can get a storm that will dump at least localized amounts over 2 feet in this part of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 That's actually really good. Those are some nice totals. If seems the ingredients to get something of that magnitude is much more difficult than the east coast. Sometimes we get additional enhancement from lake ontario with NW/NE flows that help us get a few more inches in comparison to other regions. The GHD hit Chicago with 20+ too right? When was that 23" total? CMH is 22". As far as the atlantic. We've benefitted from some nice conveyor belt action off the atlantic during huge HECSs if the flow sets up just right. Strong high over northern new England and a slow moving low up the coast. It's rare though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Yeah, GHD was over 20" for Chicago. The 23" occurred in January 1967. Indy's total is kinda low considering areas south of them (Evansville, Louisville, etc) have had storms over 20". It is more difficult to get the massive dumps and the ceiling on east coast events is higher than here, though every once in a while you can get a storm that will dump at least localized amounts over 2 feet in this part of the country. One that is often overlooked because the jackpot occurred between cities, was Dec'04. Places in western OH/eastern IN picked up over 30" I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 CMH is 22". As far as the atlantic. We've benefitted from some nice conveyor belt action off the atlantic during huge HECSs if the flow sets up just right. Strong high over northern new England and a slow moving low up the coast. It's rare though. Wow nice. So it really is possible to get some 20-25 inch totals in your area as well. Just need the right set-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.