jhamps10 Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 It does appear to be further south, especially from while int he Plains. Also appears to be a tad drier. yeah maybe as a whole, almost in the screwzone from this weeks storms, too far west for tomorrow's good rains, and the clipper dries out before it gets here for a bit of rain. Still should get SOME but it would be nice if the storms tomorrow comes in a 20-30 miles further NW to get us into the good rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Wow, you guys are really piling on Alek. He's got a view of the warm lake plus UHI to deal with. All he has to do is take a leisurely drive out the Eisenhower and Dan Ryan to see the flakes fly. 00Z has trended stronger at all levels and now has a closed circulation at 500mb earlier....and after conferring with a college one interesting note from Bufkit for southern lower Michigan, northern Indiana, and NW Ohio the soundings initially show a 2C SFC dewpoint at 10am, yet under a backing wind from 090 to 040 at the SFC the dewpoints rise up to 9C....problem is dewpoints in the eastern Ontario into New York area are around 2C, so you are not going to have low level theta advection with that type of wind profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 00Z has trended stronger at all levels and now has a closed circulation at 500mb earlier....and after conferring with a college one interesting note from Bufkit for southern lower Michigan, northern Indiana, and NW Ohio the soundings initially show a 2C SFC dewpoint at 10am, yet under a backing wind from 090 to 040 at the SFC the dewpoints rise up to 9C....problem is dewpoints in the eastern Ontario into New York area are around 2C, so you are not going to have low level theta advection with that type of wind profile. This would imply that there should be a chance of mixed precip as you thermally cool the profile either frop wet bulb cooling/condensation from loading the shaft with higher precip rates, especially if it's convective in nature....also from a dynamic standpoint this system is starting to show a CSI setup potentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 It does appear to be further south, especially from while in the Plains. GFS also comes south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 GFS also comes south. Yep. The handling of this weak to moderate strength system by the models as a whole has been piss poor to say the least. Looking forward I guess that makes things exciting in a way, as it proves that even the short term models are essentially clueless this season. I have a feeling some people will end up getting pissed off this season as they get screwed at the last second, while others are elated by a last minute surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Euro is south..looking like a cold rain for my area..at least it's something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 This would imply that there should be a chance of mixed precip as you thermally cool the profile either frop wet bulb cooling/condensation from loading the shaft with higher precip rates, especially if it's convective in nature....also from a dynamic standpoint this system is starting to show a CSI setup potentially. Are you referring to the clipper or the first system moving up through the OV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 12z NAM south again. I believe we're picking up on a trend here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 12z NAM south again. I believe we're picking up on a trend here. The 12z GFS follows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NIUmetGF Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Frustrating system to be forecasting for to say the least. I hedged my bets southward in IA given the trend in the last few model runs. Apparently that wasn't enough as this mornings runs take it even further south to where IA won't see a whole lot of anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Frustrating system to be forecasting for to say the least. I hedged my bets southward in IA given the trend in the last few model runs. Apparently that wasn't enough as this mornings runs take it even further south to where IA won't see a whole lot of anything. The shift south has been pretty significant. Oz runs keep Iowa completely out of it now. I guess it makes sense though, especially given how the models trended stronger and farther W each run with the large OH Valley trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Wow. You just have to laugh at the performance of the models with this one. I think all of them failed quite miserably with this system. Definitely gives one an uneasy feeling as we enter the winter season as to what model to trust. So far this Fall they've all had some good performances, and at the same time had very bad ones too. Usually by now we can tell which model has a tendency to be more accurate within a given range. At this point, I don't think I can trust any of them beyond 36hrs lol. Gonna make it very interesting, but at the same time somewhat frustrating as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 when i first started watching this it had northern nebraska getting some, and i needed it to trend south towards me, but now, its too far south as ill be on the ne side of this in lincoln, ne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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