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Nov 16-18th midwest FAIL Event

janetjanet998

By janetjanet998,
in Central/Western States

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janetjanet998

janetjanet998

Posted
Posted

A weak system then a stronger one:

some NWS Discussion to start off with:

DSM

TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MUCH STRONGER AND MORE BROADER SYSTEM

EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. GFS CONTINUES TO PEG

THE I80 CORRIDOR DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH SNOW/RAIN POTENTIAL AND

INCREASE POPS OVER THE CENTRAL CWA. UPPER LOW TRACKS SOUTHEAST OVER

MISSOURI WHILE THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK.

MOISTURE PROFILES DEEPEN BY 15Z WEDNESDAY...AND TEMPS AT THE SURFACE

WILL PLACE A ROLE IN PRECIP TYPE. WENT WITH THE SNOW/RAIN ACROSS

THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA...BUT IF THE ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO

TREND WITH COLDER TEMPS...THEN COULD SEE ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS

PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA. MUCH

DVN

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS DUE TO

COME THROUGH. RECENT MODELS HAVE BEEN COMING INTO LINE ON THIS

SYSTEM...WITH NOW THE 06Z NAM THE LATEST TO COME INTO LINE WITH

DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY...BRINGING IT

ACROSS NEBRASKA TUESDAY NIGHT...AND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING IS OVER THE

GENERAL VICINITY OF KANSAS CITY. THIS SHOULD BRING A FAIRLY GOOD

SWATH OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS IOWA AND INTO ILLINOIS...ALSO

AFFECTING NORTHERN MISSOURI. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD GET

A FAIRLY GOOD SHOT AT THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH THE RECENT NAM AND ECMWF

IS BEGINNING TO EDGE THINGS SOUTH FOR A MORE GLANCING BLOW. THIS

SYSTEM SHOULD START OUT AS RAIN...BUT SHOULD BECOME MIXED WITH SNOW

OR BECOME ALL SNOW BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS MORE COLD

AIR POURS INTO THE AREA ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYSTEM.

OAX

EXIST WITH GFS FARTHER NORTH...HOWEVER TIMING IS

CONSISTENT. EXPECT SWATH OF PRECIP FROM NORTHWEST CWA THROUGH OUR

SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN ENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE EAST.

PRECIP TYPE WILL BEGIN AS RAIN TUESDAY EVENING THEN SWITCH TO SNOW

FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY A SNOW EVENT FOR OUR

FAR NORTH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...SO HAVE INITIALLY PAINTED AN INCH OR

SO OF SNOW THERE. HOWEVER A QUICKER CHANGEOVER WOULD YIELD HIGHER

AMOUNTS...AND COULD SEE 3 INCH TOTALS COMMON FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA

THROUGH WEST CENTRAL IOWA BASED ON GARCIA CALCULATIONS ALONG 295K

ISENTROPIC SURFACE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS POSSIBILITY IN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

STL

IN THE WAKE OF

THIS SYSTEM A VIGOROUS CLIPPER IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE

REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. GIVEN ITS CURRENT FORECAST

TRACK...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF

PCPN TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. FURTHER NORTH A

BAND OF MEASURABLE SNOW LOOKS LIKELY FROM IA INTO NORTHERN IL. ITS

NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT PORTIONS OF NRN MO COULD ALSO GET

INTO THE ACT AND SEE A LITTLE SNOW

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janetjanet998

janetjanet998

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Clipper fail?

DVN

REALLY ONLY WEATHER FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS NEW WORK WEEK IS

THE ONE ON WEDNESDAY. A CLIPPER ARRIVES BUT I AM NOT AS EXCITED

ABOUT THIS AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. ECM/GFS NOW TRACKING THIS

SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH MAINLY ACROSS MISSOURI. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE

THE OUTLIER AND TOO FAR NORTH. HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM THE CONSALL

WITH EITHER SLIGHT OR SMALL CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE

WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR PRECIP TYPE BUT WITH THE QUICK PACE

OF THE SYSTEM WILL NOW GO DRY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS TO BE

VERY LIGHT.

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cyclone77

cyclone77

Posted
Posted

Clipper fail?

DVN

REALLY ONLY WEATHER FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS NEW WORK WEEK IS

THE ONE ON WEDNESDAY. A CLIPPER ARRIVES BUT I AM NOT AS EXCITED

ABOUT THIS AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. ECM/GFS NOW TRACKING THIS

SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH MAINLY ACROSS MISSOURI. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE

THE OUTLIER AND TOO FAR NORTH. HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM THE CONSALL

WITH EITHER SLIGHT OR SMALL CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE

WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR PRECIP TYPE BUT WITH THE QUICK PACE

OF THE SYSTEM WILL NOW GO DRY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS TO BE

VERY LIGHT.

You can tell DVN is getting frustrated with the exceptionally boring weather the last 3+ months.

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janetjanet998

janetjanet998

Posted
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Posted

Can't describe the process meteorologically as I wasn't paying close attention to the H5 plots, but it seemed that as the models trended stronger with the system moving through the OV on D3, they correspondingly trended weaker with that clipper. More emphasis on the lead s/w as opposed to the kicker?

just checked the 18z NAM still juicy over IA( a small spot of 1+) but DSM disregarding the 12z

DSM

SYSTEM COMING INTO PACNW IS WEAKENING WITH EACH RUN SINCE

SUNDAY MORNING WHEN GEM HAD DUMPED OVER 1 INCH OF QPF ACROSS IA ON

WED. NOW...ALL MODELS HAVE A MORE REALISTIC .25 TO .30 FOR QPF

TOTALS THOUGH THE NAM IS STILL HIGHER. GEM/EURO/GFS HAVE ALL TRENDED

FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE NAM BEING THE NORTHERLY OUTLIER. WILL BE

GOING WITH THE MORE SOUTHERN SOLN WITH LIGHTER QPF AMOUNTS OVER OUR

FORECAST AREA AND ALSO RS SOUTH AND S ELSEWHERE. LIKELY TO NOT SEE

TOO MUCH IN TERMS OF ACCUMS...BUT PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO OVER SOUTH

CENTRAL AREAS BASED ON CURRENT TRACK.

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Indystorm

Indystorm

Posted
Posted

Not getting my hopes up here, though forecast is for a mix Tuesday night. If the App runner is stronger and somehow manages to pull down colder air then I will get excited. Have already had first snowflakes here this season but tend to agree with northern IN weather that our good snows in Michiana come from mid December to the end of January...then we worry about ice in Feb.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

NAM still way east with the first impulse...but the "strongest" with the clipper following on its heels.

This might be one of those either/or scenarios...unfortunately we'll probably get screwed either way, but those farther north might want to root for the first low to be farther east.

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patrick7032

patrick7032

Posted
Posted

This might be one of those either/or scenarios...unfortunately we'll probably get screwed either way, but those farther north might want to root for the first low to be farther east.

Biggest missing ingredient I think is a blocking high to the north or northeast to funnel in cooler/drier air. Latest GFS shows it still a few deg C too warm...oh well....plenty of time for that this yr....not ready for my one hr drive to metro to turn into a three hour just yet.

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csnavywx

csnavywx

Posted
Posted

Key with the precip placement on this clipper is watching the track of the 500 vort max (not the shear lobe on the south side, but the main advection lobe on the north side). Greatest precip is typically in a band 100-200 miles north of the vort max, or in this case from Iowa across to central and northern IL. Plenty of cold air aloft, even though 850s are somewhat marginal. Should be mostly snow on the north side of that low, especially given dynamic and evaporative cooling.

Models are inconsistent with the strength of the system (though all show a weakening of the surface system). I'm not all that convinced that the upper wave will weaken that quickly, especially given that it's moving into a mean longwave position initially.

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cyclone77

cyclone77

Posted
Posted

Yeah the models look a lot more interesting today with this feature. Therm profiles above 850 look good for snow. Unfortunately though, the lower atmosphere looks a bit warm, especially on the NAM. The NAM keeps everything rain, whereas the GEM and GFS have a little snow on the tail-end. This little system definitely looks quite vigorous though, so maybe the models are underplaying the dynamical cooling some. Hopefully that's that's the case.

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Thundersnow12

Thundersnow12

Posted
Posted

Look at the precip on the 12z NAM/GFS, I think the GFS has a better handle on it, what would be causing the precip at 66hrs on the NAM to vanish completely by 12z as it moves east on the northern side? The GFS on the otherhand looks something like what would happen which has a steady decline in precip over a longer period of time as the wave gradually weakens.

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cyclone77

cyclone77

Posted
Posted

Look at the precip on the 12z NAM/GFS, I think the GFS has a better handle on it, what would be causing the precip at 66hrs on the NAM to vanish completely by 12z as it moves east on the northern side? The GFS on the otherhand looks something like what would happen which has a steady decline in precip over a longer period of time as the wave gradually weakens.

Yeah the NAM has been acting weird the last few days. Not sure what the issues are with that. Surprising as it seemed to handle the Minnesota snowstorm pretty well. The good news is this system looks more robust than it did yesterday. Hopefully the trend continues.:snowman:

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IWXwx

IWXwx

Posted
Posted

:guitar:

Looks pretty marginal everywhere but I probably wouldn't even be paying attention near the lake.

Wow, you guys are really piling on Alek. He's got a view of the warm lake plus UHI to deal with. All he has to do is take a leisurely drive out the Eisenhower and Dan Ryan to see the flakes fly.

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