Wonderdog Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 GFS wants to give us another clipper on Friday/Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 DT Alert 1st guess--has many of us in here for rain to snow 1-3 inches tomorrow? Ummmm. Ok? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2015 Author Share Posted January 17, 2015 Curious to see what the euro ens show for the clipper. Bob, Matt... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Clipper looks further south on the 12z EPS...I see a low east of OC MD at 96H. Cant see what the low level temps or precip look like yet. If I had to guess, its warmish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Clipper looks further south on the 12z EPS...I see a low east of OC MD at 96H. Cant see what the low level temps or precip look like yet. If I had to guess, its warmish. Hard to tell, but the sfc isn't that bad... I looked at the mean snow map (just for precip distribution), and it actually shows an inch of snow in N. MD. So, generally it's .05-.1" of liquid for the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Hard to tell, but the sfc isn't that bad... I looked at the mean snow map (just for precip distribution), and it actually shows and inch of snow in N. MD. So, generally it's .05-.1" of liquid for the clipper. lol I am just completely disinterested in tracking 1 inch threats. Hopefully late next week or early the following week offer something more substantial. Right now I would bet on the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 lol I am just completely disinterested in tracking 1 inch threats. Hopefully late next week or early the following week offer something more substantial. Right now I would bet on the latter. It's sad that this is what it's come to. I think a solid 6-10" snow sometime in the next month would save the MA, even if we don't hit average snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 18z gfs is a pretty good run. Southern jet is dead but has a good trough throughout, Pna cooperates some and throws northern stream vorts at us every 48 hours. Not a hecs pattern but could nickel and dime our way to a decent period. That pattern could work out ok if we keep expectations modest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 18z gfs is a pretty good run. Southern jet is dead but has a good trough throughout, Pna cooperates some and throws northern stream vorts at us every 48 hours. Not a hecs pattern but could nickel and dime our way to a decent period. That pattern could work out ok if we keep expectations modest. there are more clippers on this run than at any Hair Cuttery (not that I go into a Hair Cuttery, but people talk) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Yes five moisture starved clippers in the next 10 days; we'll have to will them south. Currently, all track well to our north (southern PA to central NY). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 18z GFS actually shows a Nino like pattern starting at hr 336. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 euro Control has a bit storm for the 27th/28th...close to what the euro was trying to pull off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Our long lost storm is a hit on the 18Z GEFS mean. I wonder if the new GFS op running on the new platform and the GEFS running on the old platform are competing here. It will be VERY interesting to see which wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I still think it's possible we back our way into up to 4 inches next weekend, run by ugly run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 Well we can sleep on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Well we can sleep on the NAM. Wanna extrapolate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 Wanna extrapolate? nam_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif I'll just drift off thinking of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Wanna extrapolate? nam_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif Its definitely transferring to a developing coastal low...I could see this being an event everyone does well on from the MA to Boston...northern New England and perhaps NW CT and WRN MASS may get screwed but I could see DCA to BOS seeing several inches if the re-developing low turns the corner which given the flow it should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Well we can sleep on the NAM. hopefully, things can get better, as in colder, because temps between 850mb and just above the surface are on fire, at least at BWI check out hour 84 temps between 900-1000mb http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_kbwi.txt regardless, NAM is painting the best picture and we have some time for improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 hopefully, things can get better, as in colder, because temps between 850mb and just above the surface are on fire, at least at BWI check out hour 84 temps between 900-1000mb http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_kbwi.txt regardless, NAM is painting the best picture and we have some time for improvement Am I reading that right? It's an oven lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 GFS looks better this run with the clipper thru 72 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Wanna extrapolate? nam_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif LOL!! Actually, I believe the GFS was showing some kind of attempt at separation in that trough, though not nearly like what the NAM has at 84-h. And it's more progressive looking. On a different topic, it seems like forever since there was a large group in here staying up to see the Euro play-by-play for an event. You know it's fun times when that happens! I don't think we've done that this year, or it hasn't been worth getting bleary-eyed at 1:30AM for it. Maybe for the Thanksgiving storm? That's the only one I can think of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Am I reading that right? It's an oven lol. it is here's the 925mb (2,250', more or less) at 84 hours http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_925_temp_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=925_temp_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150118+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 GFS looks better this run with the clipper thru 72 hrs If that trough could only separate enough and dig, while drawing in some colder air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 GFS definitely going south with the clipper temps unknown at this point until I get update at NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Well damn...just saw the 0z models. Here we go. Might be backing into something here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 GFS looks better this run with the clipper thru 72 hrs Boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 GFS definitely going south with the clipper temps unknown at this point until I get update at NCEP Temps at 925 don't look great, at least so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 GFS definitely going south with the clipper temps unknown at this point until I get update at NCEP Its south. I have it out to 126...it does something with the clipper. looks marginal/warmish tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 .28" qpf at BWI, but it's rain or mix due to temps! fook this winter EDIT: or should I say pathetic excuse for a winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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