Ji Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 we always pay for a historic winter. One equation that wasnt thought of much in the seasonal outlook. next 4 years will probably suck until our next 80 inch winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 we always pay for a historic winter. One equation that wasnt thought of much in the seasonal outlook. next 4 years will probably suck until our next 80 inch winter Epic winters happen every 7 years, only 2 more years for our next Hecs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 we always pay for a historic winter. One equation that wasnt thought of much in the seasonal outlook. next 4 years will probably suck until our next 80 inch winter It's better to have seen snow melt than to have never seen snow before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 It's better to have seen snow melt than to have never seen snow before. "true"-Dave Tolleris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 we always pay for a historic winter. One equation that wasnt thought of much in the seasonal outlook. next 4 years will probably suck until our next 80 inch winter We've had a good decade so far, especially if you count 09-10. My 5 year running average is obscenely high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 We will get our storm in 8 days or so. Cold and snow on the way. Typhoon rule. Way more reliable than that SAI hocus pocus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 18z GFS is another disaster for the weekend storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 It's just obliterated from the map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 It's just obliterated from the map Guessing it has something to do with those dual 1030 High's in southern TX and Mississippi at hr 162.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I don't think I like futuristic GFS. At least I had some familiarity with the many weaknesses and biases of the old low res model. Feel like Helen Keller trying to read this thing from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2015 Author Share Posted January 16, 2015 Anyone feeling hopeless about next week certainly isn't looking at the gfs ens members. Plenty of hope there for some decent winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 8 days just seems way too far out for maps to look reliable or to even make sense. I'm not a met but I'd be focused more on individual, larger waves and the overall pattern at that range instead of details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Anyone feeling hopeless about next week certainly isn't looking at the gfs ens members. Plenty of hope there for some decent winter weather. Oh I am not hopeless. Far from it. I love variety. The possibilities in the guidance are endless. (well not really), but at least diverse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Guessing it has something to do with those dual 1030 High's in southern TX and Mississippi at hr 162.. I wonder how accurate that really is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 My uneducated guess would be not accurate at all. I wonder how accurate that really is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 GFS has nothing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Stick a fork in it..........winter IS over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Stick a fork in it..........winter IS over. I wouldn't go that far concerning winter. But that storm late next week is not even on life support at this point. Amazing turnaround in just a day or so. Even the ensembles have come to look dubious about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Day 16 looks great on the 00zGFS.......... I'm biting hook line and sinker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 NAVGEM is some sexy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Go Navy? Weekend rule too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Plots are not showing up, by the way. need to accept access, gov site https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/dynamic/NVG/2015011700//nvg10.thk.180.namer.gif click that and do it and they'll show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 need to accept access, gov site https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/dynamic/NVG/2015011700//nvg10.thk.180.namer.gif click that and do it and they'll show up. Ahhh, thanks much! I just saw it now. So it's the JMA (from what someone said earlier) and the Navy vs. GFS/Euro. Hmmmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 I wouldn't go that far concerning winter. But that storm late next week is not even on life support at this point. Amazing turnaround in just a day or so. Even the ensembles have come to look dubious about it. Yeah, a frustrating turn but maybe some form of a storm makes a comeback by Monday. Ensembles have been very cold in the 10-15 day and tonight's GFS supports that. It just looks like after next weeks attempt at a storm the gulf is not open for business. If that holds true we're going to have to get lucky again with some clipper or wave like last year in January. I think with that type of cold some snow will fall but nothing significant. A couple days with highs in the teens are probably more likely than a real snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/metoc/nogaps/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Ahhh, thanks much! I just saw it now. So it's the JMA (from what someone said earlier) and the Navy vs. GFS/Euro. Hmmmmm. Euro shows DC snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 True, this storm was (is??) supposed to be a Friday-Saturday time frame. Yeah somewhere in there. Sat focus overall I think. I'm not sure I'd write it off just yet.. the Euro today was a bit wonky.. not resolving stuff at range well I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Yeah, a frustrating turn but maybe some form of a storm makes a comeback by Monday. Ensembles have been very cold in the 10-15 day and tonight's GFS supports that. It just looks like after next weeks attempt at a storm the gulf is not open for business. If that holds true we're going to have to get lucky again with some clipper or wave like last year in January. I think with that type of cold some snow will fall but nothing significant. A couple days with highs in the teens are probably more likely than a real snowstorm. It kind of looks that way at this point. Of course, the storm all but not appearing at this point kind of messes with what things had looked like right around and after it was supposed to occur. The evolution of the flow around that time was very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Euro shows DC snow Yes, very true...I had almost pushed the earlier discussion (from 12Z) out of mind by this point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Day 16 looks great on the 00zGFS.......... I'm biting hook line and sinker. I'm all in for that bridge! LOL! But seriously, that's some funky looking development there on the GFS in its later time frames. Looks like two sections of Polar vortex rotate down into the Midwest and East, as part of a larger broad and deep trough. Some d*mn cold air in there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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