Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Better than last night but kind of a sad fantasy storm. There's like 45 lows within 15 feet of each other to our north and west. It's a sad setup for a good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 .42 for DCA....lol. When ian said it was snowing..he didnt mention it was light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 There's like 45 lows within 15 feet of each other to our north and west. It's a sad setup for a good storm. We want all the bad looks now. Or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 .42 for DCA....lol. When ian said it was snowing..he didnt mention it was light snow Being first isn't about being informative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I'd take that in a New York minute. with temps at 37? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Being first isn't about being informative. At least we might hit 50 next sunday with return flow in front of one of the 90 low pressures lurking to the nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Being first isn't about being informative. this will end up being a purely northern stream event. Ive seen that too...our Miller A's become northern stream storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 You know whats horrible with this run, you literally have no highs over the Great Lakes and New England. The timing just doesn't seem right. Its amazing how many model runs we go through. I mean, hitting the next button to reach 240 to see a big storm really sucks. Its a shame we just can't develop the block. Even be nice to see the subtropical jet get going over the deep south. This El Nino just hasn't delivered the active storm track. I mean, when was the last time we saw a big low wrap up along the East Coast.. What back in November. Maybe will close out this one with a bang. Anyway, yep frustrating if you want the big snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 it is still 7-8 days away so maybe the ensembles will be more encouraging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 this will end up being a purely northern stream event. Ive seen that too...our Miller A's become northern stream storms track is ok. i think we knew this was going to be a thread the needle if it happens. it's pretty far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Clipper behind the storm goes to the lakes. Oh woe is us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 You know whats horrible with this run, you literally have no highs over the Great Lakes and New England. The timing just doesn't seem right. Its amazing how many model runs we go through. I mean, hitting the next button to reach 240 to see a big storm really sucks. Its a shame we just can't develop the block. Even be nice to see the subtropical jet get going over the deep south. This El Nino just hasn't delivered the active storm track. I mean, when was the last time we saw a big low wrap up along the East Coast.. What back in November. Maybe will close out this one with a bang. Anyway, yep frustrating if you want the big snow.. what El Nino? it went neutral over the last 14 days http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/oisst/navy-anom-bb.gif http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.week.html this week's numbers Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 07JAN2015 23.7-0.2 25.9 0.4 27.0 0.4 29.1 0.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 JMA is a big hit. And its shown really no snow the entire season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 JMA is a big hit. And its shown really no snow the entire season 993 bomb. Let's ride it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Hey I woundnt sweat it.. We all know the story... Big hit in the long range then lose it in the mid range... Then like clockwork it comes back with a vengeance. Besides... something looked funny to me about that the way the gfs was handling it this past run. Definitely an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 You know whats horrible with this run, you literally have no highs over the Great Lakes and New England. The timing just doesn't seem right. Its amazing how many model runs we go through. I mean, hitting the next button to reach 240 to see a big storm really sucks. Its a shame we just can't develop the block. Even be nice to see the subtropical jet get going over the deep south. This El Nino just hasn't delivered the active storm track. I mean, when was the last time we saw a big low wrap up along the East Coast.. What back in November. Maybe will close out this one with a bang. Anyway, yep frustrating if you want the big snow.. HPC has 1024 over SW Ontario next Thursday, with a low on the SC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I'm just a layperson, but the EPS looks very cold The ensembles? I don't see them out yet I hear they are wetter than the OP though... but don't know much beyond that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 The ensembles? I don't see them out yet I was looking at the mean. Like I said, I'm just a layperson. Probably looking at it wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 The ensembles? I don't see them out yet I hear they are wetter than the OP though... but don't know much beyond that nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I was looking at the mean. Like I said, I'm just a layperson. Probably looking at it wrong... don't look terribly cold either. nothing too exciting really. cold builds after 300... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 nope 12Z Euro ens wetter than op, but too warm except maybe southern TN to extreme northern NC I guess its just for down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I guess its just for down there barely.. looks like it's just more fuzzy with the precip. around here it's just light stuff for panels on end. can see the low but it's weak compared to the op. it's a pretty boring ensemble run overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 No -NAO to be found. But I guess we should expect that at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Surface kinda sucks. The problem with the setup is there's a banana low where there's supposed to be a banana high. YEP. Arg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 No -NAO to be found. But I guess we should expect that at this point. I think the AO is weakly negative but the NAO is still pretty positive. Glad I don't do seasonal outlooks as Cohen and the supposed MJO would have had me biting. Heck, I've had trouble with the second week of 2 week forecasts this year. I just hope Ji at least gets a few inches of snow like the euro is showing so I can declare a Pyrrhic victory. You wait, by late Feb and March when I don't want snow there will be snowstorms galore to write about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I think the AO is weakly negative but the NAO is still pretty positive. Glad I don't do seasonal outlooks as Cohen and the supposed MJO would have had me biting. Heck, I've had trouble with the second week of 2 week forecasts this year. I just hope Ji at least gets a few inches of snow like the euro is showing so I can declare a Pyrrhic victory. You wait, by late Feb and March when I don't want snow there will be snowstorms galore to write about. now I see why your name is used to be:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 now I see why your name is used to be:) Lol, it too k you that long to figure it out. I've always been a short range forecaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I think the AO is weakly negative but the NAO is still pretty positive. Glad I don't do seasonal outlooks as Cohen and the supposed MJO would have had me biting. Heck, I've had trouble with the second week of 2 week forecasts this year. I just hope Ji at least gets a few inches of snow like the euro is showing so I can declare a Pyrrhic victory. You wait, by late Feb and March when I don't want snow there will be snowstorms galore to write about. Yeah looks that way. Not sure we'll ever see a good negative NAO again though. Definitely not a shutout pattern per se but seems no good trends last long with that stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Yeah looks that way. Not sure we'll ever see a good negative NAO again though. Definitely not a shutout pattern per se but seems no good trends last long with that stuff. The negative AO is only on the ensemble means, the operational Euro and GSF 6-10 day mean has a positive AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Amazing how things can turn on a dime with these models. About 2 days ago, we were looking forward to a negative NAO and AO and now squat. I prefer a negative AO since that's all we had last year and I got 14 inches from one of the snowstorms. So you don't need the block for a fine snowstorm, although I know that's what we need for the "Big One", most of the time. I am beginning to wonder about this year, unless the EURO storm verifies for us and I'd take .42 any day of the week, especially this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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