paulythegun Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Doesnt look like enough cold air in place to me..its essentially a low on the front, 9 out of 10 times we dry out before being cold enough...if we get any precipitation yep. this is about the worst setup I can think of...do we EVER get wrap-around after the front passes and the low juices up as it runs up the coast? it seems like models consistently overstate wrap-around and post-cold front snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 PARA is fine. It's over. Euro will follow suit in an hour I have not doubt. Its just not our year. That is exactly right and I just don't see this turning around in our favor. It's tough to get drilled one winter and have another active season immediately following it...especially in the Middle Atlantic. Not that it can't happen...it's just not as likely. We are in the peak of our season now and for the next few weeks. If we don't get a solid event here by mid-late Feb it's pretty well done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2015 Author Share Posted January 16, 2015 Believing day 10+ model runs to the point of posting 850 temps? Talking about setting yourself up for disappointment. The seasonal pattern has been consistent and probably your best bet when guessing a day 10 forecast. This post is spot on. The pattern of the winter is evident so far. If there's any high pressure around, systems are weak and can't gain latitude. If there's no high, it warms slightly, the storms are still weak, and they can gain a bit of latitude. The models beyond about a week haven't been good. There is really little point in looking at models beyond day 10. Why people are upset baffles me. The winter has been very consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 There is really little point in looking at models beyond day 10. Why people are upset baffles me. The winter has been very consistent. We get hit solid with the tail end of a miller B @ 384 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 GGEM is still decent.. a miss to the SE, but not by much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 12z GGEM still has it, although just to our south. Lets see what the Euro and next run of the GFS does before writing this completely off. If they suck, I guess we start talking about when the D.C cherry blossoms will start bursting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I'm calling it now, the GFS dominace this winter has ended, the Euro is starting to take the game back over. It just scored a win on this weekend's system up in New England with most 12Z models moving towards it. I think the shift in the PNA and AO and some recent changes to the PV may have kicked the GFS back into crap mode and its now struggling with everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I'm calling it now, the GFS dominace this winter has ended, the Euro is starting to take the game back over. It just scored a win on this weekend's system up in New England with most 12Z models moving towards it. I think the shift in the PNA and AO and some recent changes to the PV may have kicked the GFS back into crap mode and its now struggling with everything. we will get to test this in about an hour to see what it does late next week...or at least where its headed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I'm calling it now, the GFS dominace this winter has ended, the Euro is starting to take the game back over. It just scored a win on this weekend's system up in New England with most 12Z models moving towards it. I think the shift in the PNA and AO and some recent changes to the PV may have kicked the GFS back into crap mode and its now struggling with everything. In fairness though, the EURO did have a massive cutter for next weekend just about 36 hours ago. At least the GFS has been fairly consistently either on or off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 we will get to test this in about an hour to see what it does late next week...or at least where its headed Just curious how you are going to test it in an hour when the storm is 6 days away. This forum is becoming unreadable at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 In fairness though, the EURO did have a massive cutter for next weekend just about 36 hours ago. At least the GFS has been fairly consistently either on or off the coast The evolution of the 12z GFS model at 500mb out west shows anything but consistency with it's previous runs. Not saying we toss it, but that has to count for something in forecasting. For sensible weather, it means 30's versus 50's on the 24th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I would say the spread large Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I only count two major winter storms at 180 from this post... I am guessing a few others would prob show up at 192-204 time period I would say the spread large Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I only count two major winter storms at 180 from this post... I am guessing a few others would prob show up at 192-204 time period Yeah, not as consistent looking like they were the other day. But almost all of the members still have good moisture down in the Gulf. It appears to be a difference in timing just looking at this one snapshot; not sure where the ones "farther behind" would end up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Yeah, not as consistent looking like they were the other day. But almost all of the members still have good moisture down in the Gulf. It appears to be a difference in timing just looking at this one snapshot; not sure where the ones "farther behind" would end up. We will have to guess to see what the ones "farther behind" would do as PSU only goes out to 180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Here is 192 from a different viewpoint: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 We will have to guess to see what the ones "farther behind" would do as PSU only goes out to 180 PSU goes to 384 but in 12 hour instead of 6 hour panels. The short story is 2 direct hit coastals, 1 near miss, 1 rain to snow, 1 clipper redeveloper, and the rest south. The op was by far the most suppressed. 6z only had 1 good solution some rainers and some whiffs. 12z gefs was an improvement from 6z. Anything is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Here is 192 from a different viewpoint: f192.gif Interesting. Maybe another couple of "hits" flipping between those two periods? The lower right one (p010) caught my eye for some weird reason. Looks kind of interesting in a way...like a clipper that gives us something with some very cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Eh, the clipper on the 12z EURO doesn't really do anything. Too far north for us, but SNE gets a decent event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 So far, 192 LOOKS good... Ian/Bob, is 198 and 204 good? ETA: I see talk of phasing at 198 from the SE Crew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Better than last night. Low off OBX at 204. Snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 So far, 192 LOOKS good... Ian/Bob, is 198 and 204 good? it dosent really matter.....whether it looks good or not because it will change. I have seen this before where the 12z and the 0z euro act like 2 completely different models. Once we get under 132 hours...thats when the euro starts to lock in some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 210 994 maybe 75 miles of DE coast. Snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 210 at benchmark. Mid levels might not be great.. SV doesn't show much snow. See once hi res is up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 never mind about lock it up..this winter sucks. Its over actually maybe it's the surface.. kinda mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 if the euro has the midweek clipper further north does that help with our storm later in the week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Surface kinda sucks. The problem with the setup is there's a banana low where there's supposed to be a banana high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 surface is 32/33 for JYO but very little precip. Maybe .30. its a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Surface kinda sucks. The problem with the setup is there's a banana low where there's supposed to be a banana high. Better than last night but kind of a sad fantasy storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 surface is 32/33 for JYO but very little precip. Maybe .30. its a disaster No pinks on wxbell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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