Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Ens are N&W of the op by a good bit. Dare I say BM track.... Euro ensembles have almost completely dropped the cutter/miller B idea. They looked really good last night with a nice cluster tracking from obx to east of the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Euro ensembles have almost completely dropped the cutter/miller B idea. They looked really good last night with a nice cluster tracking from obx to east of the benchmark. Too soon. Psychologically, I get that most folks need to see a good solution/storm on the models. But now is not the time. I'm over needing to see it this far out. Just hold the signal/storm somewhere in the vicinity and i'm good to go. The southern slider look is fine for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Euro ensembles have almost completely dropped the cutter/miller B idea. They looked really good last night with a nice cluster tracking from obx to east of the benchmark. EPS looks more stable. GEFS is all over the place last several runs esp beyond day 10. On another note, Cohen says the -AO is still a comin, with some caveats of course(That darn B-K Sea low) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Euro ensembles have almost completely dropped the cutter/miller B idea. They looked really good last night with a nice cluster tracking from obx to east of the benchmark. Yup, I am more following the ensemble runs than the OP for now. Good track as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Too soon. Psychologically, I get that most folks need to see a good solution/storm on the models. But now is not the time. I'm over needing to see it this far out. Just hold the signal/storm somewhere in the vicinity and i'm good to go. The southern slider look is fine for now. It's notable that the euro ens backed off the cutter/miller b idea. Now we have fair consensus of a coastal storm tracking south east of us. Whether we get hit or not is a different discussion of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 EPS looks more stable. GEFS is all over the place last several runs esp beyond day 10. On another note, Cohen says the -AO is still a comin, with some caveats of course(That darn B-K Sea low) Dr. Cohen has no choice but to say it's coming. If I were him I would. If the AO goes negative in Feb after being positive to strongly positive through DJ, can't it just be part of normal variability that can happen in any winter and that the SAI had nothing to do with it? It's going to be hard to convince me it was the SAI doing it's magic but I'm just an armchair weenie so what I think matters little in the scientific community. In my eyes, the fact that the AO can be + to strongly + for the first 60 days of Met winter on the heels of what appeared to be a nearly perfect progression of SAI means that I probably shouldn't pay nearly as much attention to it as I did this fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Dr. Cohen has no choice but to say it's coming. If I were him I would. If the AO goes negative in Feb after being positive to strongly positive through DJ, can't it just be part of normal variability that can happen in any winter and that the SAI had nothing to do with it? It's going to be hard to convince me it was the SAI doing it's magic but I'm just an armchair weenie so what I think matters little in the scientific community. In my eyes, the fact that the AO can be + to strongly + for the first 60 days of Met winter on the heels of what appeared to be a nearly perfect progression of SAI means that I probably shouldn't pay nearly as much attention to it as I did this fall. IMO, the SAI and MJO based long range forecasting methods have both taken big hits this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 IMO, the SAI and MJO based long range forecasting methods have both taken big hits this year. this year should humble every forecaster, model programmer, weenie, and mailman I mention mailman simply because I just saw one walk by my office Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Euro keeps the ridge in the w conus intact through the end. Hardly a surprise that the -AO dip could be transient. I hoped for the best there but was expecting a regression. CPC D8+ has 2/10/06 as the top analog. Not a terrible thing... Bob, the D+8 and D+11 superensemble mean have prett good looks especially the D+11. I'll start with the D+8. It has 4 analogs have an inch or greater snowstorm. Below I used the centered mean date instead of the date of the snowstorm 2/10/2006 1/24/2007 1/23/1988 1/7/2003 the 2006 storm was an 8 inch plus event Without looking I would guess that is near or a tad above climo. The D+11 has 7 analogs that had snow within 3 days. Again, I've used the date of the centered mean rather than the actual snowstorm date. 2/13/1996 1/25/1988 1/17/1994 1/15/1957 2/1/1972 1/16/1959 2/8/1995 Four storms yielded over 2 inches. The heaviest was the 1996 storm which produced 6.8 at DCA but had a stripe of double digit snows to the southeast. I ended up with 12". 7 of 10 analogs showing snow is above normal. That makes me feel a little better about yesterday's outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Bob, the D+8 and D+11 superensemble mean have prett good looks especially the D+11. I'll start with the D+8. It has 4 analogs have an inch or greater snowstorm. Below I used the centered mean date instead of the date of the snowstorm 2/10/2006 1/24/2007 1/23/1988 1/7/2003 the 2006 storm was an 8 inch plus event Without looking I would guess that is near or a tad above climo. The D+11 has 7 analogs that had snow within 3 days. Again, I've used the date of the centered mean rather than the actual snowstorm date. 2/13/1996 1/25/1988 1/17/1994 1/15/1957 2/1/1972 1/16/1959 2/8/1995 Four storms yielded over 2 inches. The heaviest was the 1996 storm which produced 6.8 at DCA but had a stripe of double digit snows to the southeast. I ended up with 12". 7 of 10 analogs showing snow is above normal. That makes me feel a little better about yesterday's outlook. Thanks for this Wes. I started looking at other dates but work kept getting in the way so I quit. I knew the 96 date was good but didn't know what happened. Euro ensembles looked pretty good for d8-10. About .40 qpf and plenty of nice tracks. Best run yet. Not too bullish on the clipper though. Weak sauce here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Bob, the D+8 and D+11 superensemble mean have prett good looks especially the D+11. I'll start with the D+8. It has 4 analogs have an inch or greater snowstorm. Below I used the centered mean date instead of the date of the snowstorm 2/10/2006 1/24/2007 1/23/1988 1/7/2003 the 2006 storm was an 8 inch plus event Without looking I would guess that is near or a tad above climo. The D+11 has 7 analogs that had snow within 3 days. Again, I've used the date of the centered mean rather than the actual snowstorm date. 2/13/1996 1/25/1988 1/17/1994 1/15/1957 2/1/1972 1/16/1959 2/8/1995 Four storms yielded over 2 inches. The heaviest was the 1996 storm which produced 6.8 at DCA but had a stripe of double digit snows to the southeast. I ended up with 12". 7 of 10 analogs showing snow is above normal. That makes me feel a little better about yesterday's outlook. That's a pretty solid look. Suggests some snow is a good bet before the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Thanks for this Wes. I started looking at other dates but work kept getting in the way so I quit. I knew the 96 date was good but didn't know what happened. Euro ensembles looked pretty good for d8-10. About .40 qpf and plenty of nice tracks. Best run yet. Not too bullish on the clipper though. Weak sauce here. Compared to what has transpired so far a few of those dates would be ideal. There were some really nice storms and cold with some of those dates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Notable shift south on the gfs with the clipper but not enough to get it done for us. Close enough to keep interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Very big changes at h5 for the "coastal". This could be the run that loses the storm or has a completely new evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 So no one is interested in Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Very big changes at h5 for the "coastal". This could be the run that loses the storm or has a completely new evolution. The northern stream is just too potent..looks like it will squash anything that tries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Guess we shall see what becomes of the energy in the SW at 156 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Looks like the high is much weaker and the storm is more south and much more disorganized........should've known. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Nrn stream is way to progressive on this run, kicker ftl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 So no one is interested in Sunday? I definitely am. A low forming off our coast and heading towards the BM. Any chance this could evolve into something decent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I definitely am. A low forming off our coast and heading towards the BM. Any chance this could evolve into something decent? It never had a chance. Terrible setup. The low north of the lakes destroys the surface and midlevels. We either get rain or we don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I definitely am. A low forming off our coast and heading towards the BM. Any chance this could evolve into something decent? Doesnt look like enough cold air in place to me..its essentially a low on the front, 9 out of 10 times we dry out before being cold enough...if we get any precipitation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Yup, it's killing the storm. Could be GFS shenanigans, could be the makings of something. Let's see what the rest of the 12z suite says. And even so, doesn't matter at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Yup, it's killing the storm. Could be GFS shenanigans, could be the makings of something. Let's see what the rest of the 12z suite says. And even so, doesn't matter at this point. One positive of this run is that the clipper came south, and now gets light precip to the M/D line, instead of NYC-north at 06z. A little bit more and we may get some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Yup, it's killing the storm. Could be GFS shenanigans, could be the makings of something. Let's see what the rest of the 12z suite says. And even so, doesn't matter at this point. The GFS has pretty much ruled this winter and the other models had to play catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Screaming pacific jet an no blocking by 180 hrs. Worst looking run of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 It never had a chance. Terrible setup. The low north of the lakes destroys the surface and midlevels. We either get rain or we don't. We're due some cold rain. It's kind of an interesting event.. if it happens as suggested. Santa Bomb was a similar type of deal from range and it ended up weaker than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 i think winter is over. Everything we see something good 8 9 10 days out....it falls apart. maybe its just not happening. Or maybe the new GFS PARA sucks The only snowfall we've had so far since November was a renegade clipper... without that, we'd be 11-12 bad, minus the warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 i mean what fook happened. Models looks great yesterday. HM was ready to say Feb 2003 repeat... Believing day 10+ model runs to the point of posting 850 temps? Talking about setting yourself up for disappointment. The seasonal pattern has been consistent and probably your best bet when guessing a day 10 forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 i mean what fook happened. Models looks great yesterday. HM was ready to say Feb 2003 repeat.. it is a repeat....a repeat of what we've had all winter thus, expect the clipper to come south and deliver another modest snow and the big low in the gulf go by the wayside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.