Ian Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Guys, don't forget that last winter didn't really start until Jan 21....outside of one pretty good week in early December, we were really at almost the same spot wrt snow. And many here didn't have that good week in Dec. Maybe Matt can chime in...his snow total now might be higher than it was on this date last year. Problem with last yr is we don't get March like that very often. I'm fine thinking we run into some good stuff but to get another great March would be an aberration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Guys, don't forget that last winter didn't really start until Jan 21....outside of one pretty good week in early December, we were really at almost the same spot wrt snow. And many here didn't have that good week in Dec. Maybe Matt can chime in...his snow total now might be higher than it was on this date last year. difference last year were that areas just to our north were cashing in so even though it was no great shakes, there were threats close by essentially, we're no worse off than ENE at this point my gut tells me that suppression will be our enemy once things rearrange based on a rough 79/80 ENSO and QBO analog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 We should stop talking about last yr. Last yr is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2015 Author Share Posted January 16, 2015 Last winter at this point I had 4". I currently have 3.5", and for me, 1/6/15 was a better storm all around than the 1/2-3/14. Of course I am not expecting 14" in March. But reaching median IMBY (12-13") is certainly not unreasonable. Here is a piece of what I posted on FB earlier about the next 5 weeks. https://www.facebook.com/HeadfulOfSnow "I would put the over/under on snow between now and February 20th for DC proper at around the median. Meaning, I think we have equal chances of exceeding or failing to reach 7" during the 5 week period." It wouldn't surprise me to see that number exceeded before Feb 1. That's a hunch, obviously no science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 It wouldn't surprise me to see that number exceeded before Feb 1. That's a hunch, obviously no science. It wouldn't surprise me either..just takes one 6-10" event or a couple 3-5" events...But I would undoubtedly bet against it if I were given even odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2015 Author Share Posted January 16, 2015 Problem with last yr is we don't get March like that very often. I'm fine thinking we run into some good stuff but to get another great March would be an aberration.Like you guys say, we has a different meaning around here. "We" have had back to back great March's.As to your other post, talking about last year isn't predicting a repeat. It's simply saying that it is indeed still early and a good winter can be had from this point forward, as last year demonstrated. And the year before. No need to be distraught....yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Problem with last yr is we don't get March like that very often. I'm fine thinking we run into some good stuff but to get another great March would be an aberration. Yeah, last March was just unreal in that regard. I got 16.5" that month alone, which is incredible. Add to that how cold it got on March 2-3 and March 17. The St. Patty's day storm was arguably the best event of the season. Some may argue the Feb. 12-13 storm was better, and it was in some ways just due to the ripping snow in the middle of the night. But the following day kind of cut into that, at least closer in to the city. But St. Pats was all snow from the start and I got 8" out of it (DCA got nearly the same I believe). ETA: Actually, I'd say the past *two* Marches have been amazingly good. Despite the fiasco on March 5-6, 2013, we still got a pretty good event on March 25 even in the city and nearby. Ironically, we scored pretty well again on March 25 this year, and I doubt we see something like that again any time soon (that's also my birthday, so nice to have that two years straight!). Then again, I doubt we see anything like this entire past March any time soon either! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2015 Author Share Posted January 16, 2015 It wouldn't surprise me either..just takes one 6-10" event or a couple 3-5" events...But I would undoubtedly bet against it if I were given even odds. I wonder what the DC stats are for the Jan 16-31 time frame. Those odds might not be as long as one might suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Like you guys say, we has a different meaning around here. "We" have had back to back great March's. As to your other post, talking about last year isn't predicting a repeat. It's simply saying that it is indeed still early and a good winter can be had from this point forward, as last year demonstrated. And the year before. No need to be distraught....yet. We have but it's not common. There have only been two back to back March with 10+ at DC. That's of course a lofty goal but even the numbers of back to back with like 10 and 5 is small. Everyone likes to focus on the recent overall.. it's easier of course. I'm not sure that everyone fully gets how good last winter was though.. maybe because we didn't have a cold HECS. But even tossing March we could pile up some snow in the coming weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Yeah, last March was just unreal in that regard. I got 16.5" that month alone, which is incredible. Add to that how cold it got on March 2-3 and March 17. The St. Patty's day storm was arguably the best event of the season. Some may argue the Feb. 12-13 storm was better, and it was in some ways just due to the ripping snow in the middle of the night. But the following day kind of cut into that, at least closer in to the city. But St. Pats was all snow from the start and I got 8" out of it (DCA got nearly the same I believe). ETA: Actually, I'd say the past *two* Marches have been amazingly good. Despite the fiasco on March 5-6, 2013, we still got a pretty good event on March 25 even in the city and nearby. Ironically, we scored pretty well again on March 25 this year, and I doubt we see something like that again any time soon (that's also my birthday, so nice to have that two years straight!). Then again, I doubt we see anything like this entire past March any time soon either! We've put together a little string of March winners since 09 I guess. It's certainly not totally toss but everyone hates on December and acts like March is a big snow month. I know why in general. March did used to produce more regularly than it has in the past few decades.. perhaps we'll fall back into that again. But I wouldn't worry about March anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 and a new solution on the clipper as we would expect at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 00z GFS at 174 looks decent with a 1011 L in N GOM south of LA 183 -- 1011 L nearing Big Bend of FL 192 -- SE of Wilmington, NC at 1007 mb by ~100 miles (rough guess) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 A weaker southern slider. Perfect. In a couple hours the Euro will come in looking like a great lakes hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Good GFS run. Something new with the clipper and keeps the main event sliding south and OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I like the position of the low next weekend as it tries to make that turn up the coast. Still ots, but It has ALOT of potential, and atleast the storm is still there, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 personally, I really do fear the 79/80 analog I mentioned earlier DCA, IAD and south did fine, but once you got to BWI and north, it was mediocre hearing that HM sorta favors the southern track winters only heightens my concern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 The GFS just cant turn the corner and come up the coast for next Saturday storm... but it still looks like we have a shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 00z GGEM at 168 very juicy in TX 1012 L just south of NO at 174 180 -- 1010 L near TAL 192 -- 1006 L just SE of ILM 198 -- 1000 L east of OBX Its going to be a just off to the right miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Tonight's EURO is brought to you by the letter "S", which stands for Southern Slider Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 personally, I really do fear the 79/80 analog I mentioned earlier DCA, IAD and south did fine, but once you got to BWI and north, it was mediocre hearing that HM sorta favors the southern track winters only heightens my concern the southern storm track was favored, but no one seemed concern that BWI north would have trouble, now that you pointed it out, it's been very obvious for a while on computer runs.No one wants to say the obvious.The "great el nino" may flub again!!Many mets are possibly expecting a "great feb and march" as MJO goes into phase 7,8,1. Ensemble pointing to great pattern. We shall see!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 6z GFS looks lovely. Storm slides south and ots, but with nothing but low pressure to the NW, its warmer and is likely all rain where precip does fall. Where did that High go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 6z GFS looks lovely. Storm slides south and ots, but with nothing but low pressure to the NW, its warmer and is likely all rain where precip does fall. Where did that High go? I was just going to post that. and the rest of the run looks horrendous to me out to 336....it's not happening this year I can just feel it. Hopes pinned on Feb but if we are seeing the same type pattern emerge and threats don't materialize then we are just fooling ourselves to thinking it will get better. We should be tracking something by now and not debating .01 QPF values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I was just going to post that. and the rest of the run looks horrendous to me out to 336....it's not happening this year I can just feel it. Hopes pinned on Feb but if we are seeing the same type pattern emerge and threats don't materialize then we are just fooling ourselves to thinking it will get better. We should be tracking something by now and not debating .01 QPF values. Well I wouldnt get too concerned yet. I was just pointing out that the idea of cold suppression going forward might may be a bit overblown. Still 8-9 days out, but a pretty significant change in one run from Mr New & Improved. Low and mid levels torchy this run. Probably doesnt mean much at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 personally, I really do fear the 79/80 analog I mentioned earlier DCA, IAD and south did fine, but once you got to BWI and north, it was mediocre hearing that HM sorta favors the southern track winters only heightens my concern That analog could be concerning but no two patterns end the same. Analogs like that tell us a suppressed solution is possible in this pattern but fearing the exact same result is not warranted yet. It's not like we missed those storms by 300 miles. Look at 2007 for example. I remember in feb that year 1958 kept popping up as an analog from some mets. If you just look at snow totals for bwi you would say it didn't work out. But I think it was a great analog. There was a big storm almost at exactly the same time in both mid feb and mid march with several small events around them. The only difference was the two big storms in 07 hit a little further north and 95 missed the big snow. But for an analog a shift of 100 miles, that's just "noise". It's not perfect but I'll take my chances and not get too worried about an 80 repeat until it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Tonight's EURO is brought to you by the letter "S", which stands for Southern Slider Ens are N&W of the op by a good bit. Dare I say BM track.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Ugh, the forecasts of the AO and PNA by the ensembles is kind of discouraging today. The positive PNA quickly devolves into a negative one and the AO index which was forecast to go negative does so for about as long as it takes to drink a cup of watr. I should stop doing 2 week outlooks. This year they have been pretty lame. Of course, the models could jump back to a more sustained good look but the ridge seems to keep wanting to pop back up off the CA coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I need help interpreting these plots. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_ensm.shtml From the top panel, it is clear that the NAO is forecast to dip negative for a few days and then move strongly positive. However, the other panels only hint at an increase late in the forecast period. Is this because a 3-day running mean is applied in the lower panels but not the top panel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrgolf Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Usedtobe, its just not our winter this year IMO. Extremely progressive pattern makes it difficult for a storm to really get its act together. We have two weeks left to possibly get things changed a little for more optimism in Feb, but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 We should stop talking about last yr. Last yr is over.You sound like a Skins fan. We won the offseason, with the hyped QB(O) predictions and bold expectations, but it's not the same result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Ugh, the forecasts of the AO and PNA by the ensembles is kind of discouraging today. The positive PNA quickly devolves into a negative one and the AO index which was forecast to go negative does so for about as long as it takes to drink a cup of watr. I should stop doing 2 week outlooks. This year they have been pretty lame. Of course, the models could jump back to a more sustained good look but the ridge seems to keep wanting to pop back up off the CA coast. Euro keeps the ridge in the w conus intact through the end. Hardly a surprise that the -AO dip could be transient. I hoped for the best there but was expecting a regression. CPC D8+ has 2/10/06 as the top analog. Not a terrible thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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