StudentOfClimatology Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Oh man, I'd take the 00z CMC and call it a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 It's Midnight Madness Again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 if we have a clipper to track every 3 days and a reasonable shot at each producing, I really don't care about a HECS plus, if a HECS comes through, it usually signals or causes a disruption in the pattern, and I'd hate to see the winter parade end anytime soon Euro has a small but cold event overnight Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I am trying to understand ao and nao. Is this a good height pattern..? I see more orange and red shades over the arctic regions.. And over the north Atlantic http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015012300/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_41.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I am trying to understand ao and nao. Is this a good height pattern..? I see more orange and red shades over the arctic regions.. And over the north Atlantic http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015012300/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_41.png Look at this. http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/NAO.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The -nao is transient but it's there and potentially timed with a NS vort. Latest guidance has been moving away from a phase with the ss but that can easily change. Next weekend has some things going for it. Plenty to keep us busy it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 00z GFS showing an apps runner for next Monday storm.....18z showed suppression city. Models don't have a clue right now. Anything is on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I do like 0z GFS better, if only a little colder, nice totals potential! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 CFS2 says cold continues through FEB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 clippers must be planning on attending the FEB party too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 00z GFS showing an apps runner for next Monday storm.....18z showed suppression city. Models don't have a clue right now. Anything is on the table. Yeah, strange development. It's kind of a hybrid between an apps runner and something a bit farther east of that, and looks like a fair bit of precip falls here after temps crash. I know, going into details of a 200 hour model simulation and all that! So I guess the take-away is that it's the same kind of signal for that same time period around Feb. 2. Whatever it's worth, overall cold-looking pattern sticks around through the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I still like this period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Yeah, strange development. It's kind of a hybrid between an apps runner and something a bit farther east of that, and looks like a fair bit of precip falls here after temps crash. I know, going into details of a 200 hour model simulation and all that! So I guess the take-away is that it's the same kind of signal for that same time period around Feb. 2. Whatever it's worth, overall cold-looking pattern sticks around through the end of the run. Yeah it looks like a huge flow of moisture getting caught up in the frontal passage. There is definitely a lot to work with and plenty of time for something more to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 00z GFS showing an apps runner for next Monday storm.....18z showed suppression city. Models don't have a clue right now. Anything is on the table. Yes but it seems to end up with a tell me everything give me nothing pattern. I mean this Miller A should have delivered for most of us in January but didn't....it looked like it might. Now next weekend doesn't look that promising either and I would have thought by that time a real threat would emerge. So we will see I guess but not excited yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I'm going by the Mitch rule for the late week event. It's going to trend south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I'm going by the Mitch rule for the late week event. It's going to trend south. Every previous clipper has looked north on guidance at D5+ range and trended south. Ride the seasonal trend. GroundHECS day looks really nice on the GFS. I like the long period of overrunning in advance of the main storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Every previous clipper has looked north on guidance at D5+ range and trended south. Ride the seasonal trend. GroundHECS day looks really nice on the GFS. I like the long period of overrunning in advance of the main storm. True, Today's D+11 superensemble mean shows a negative NAO and cross polar flow but if you look at the CPC ensemble forecasts of the NOA, it's forecast to remain positive during that same 5 dayss by all the ensemble they show. I don't get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 True, Today's D+11 superensemble mean shows a negative NAO and cross polar flow but if you look at the CPC ensemble forecasts of the NOA, it's forecast to remain positive during that same 5 dayss by all the ensemble they show. I don't get it. Both the D8 and D11 means look lovely. Not the first time we've seen great looks at those leads this year, so I'm tempering my hopes, but those patterns have lots of potential for big storms if they came to fruition. Not sure about the ensembles disagreeing with those. That is odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I'm going by the Mitch rule for the late week event. It's going to trend south. The GEFS ensemble mean has it tracking across WV and across VA so that's probably got a 50% chance of happening. Haven't looked at the Euro low position graphic for the event. I've become a fan of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 True, Today's D+11 superensemble mean shows a negative NAO and cross polar flow but if you look at the CPC ensemble forecasts of the NOA, it's forecast to remain positive during that same 5 dayss by all the ensemble they show. I don't get it. Wxbell graphs show both the euro ens and gefs having a -ao/nao combo from about the 30th through the 5th give or take from the 0z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The GEFS ensemble mean has it tracking across WV and across VA so that's probably got a 50% chance of happening. Haven't looked at the Euro low position graphic for the event. I've become a fan of it. Not a very strong signal on the euro but mean track is oh-pa-long island. It's been an awful tough med-short lead year so worrying about what ops are showing is probably not the best course. These northern stream events seem to only come into decent focus inside of 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Nasty arctic intrusion hour 216 on Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Thats some pretty serious cold late in the model runs. At least that piece of the puzzle appears like it will be in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Well, 00Z GFS didn't look encouraging for the early February period. I know the potential event around that time is still way out there, and specific solutions have changed several times. So it didn't too much surprise me to see a northern stream event this time around (or so it appeared). However, what caught my eye is that the cold dropping down is much less emphatic or more shunted away. Those previously big highs poised in Canada that move in are significantly weaker looking in the 00Z run. It still gets cold, but not nearly the extent that has been shown. Could be a blip, but it's a bit disconcerting too. Regardless of the evolution of whatever storm happens, that cold air has been the one very consistent feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Euro has an encore performance it seems, similar situation at hour 144 on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 What do we think are the chances of the 30 Jan clipper trending south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 LR on the OP GFS looks like a repeat of the same miserable pattern. aside from these storm threat distractions which really are not amounting to much since we can't seem to be cold at the right time, I don't see where the pattern for us is that good or will deliver anything down the road. And now we are getting into Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I'm going by the Mitch rule for the late week event. It's going to trend south. Nostradamus you are It already has started too on the GFS and probably will, and this is why I am ignoring people freaking out about the day 7-10 period. Models cant figure tomorrow out and we are worried about a week away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Nostradamus you are It already has started too on the GFS and probably will, and this is why I am ignoring people freaking out about the day 7-10 period. Models cant figure tomorrow out and we are worried about a week away? Yes, models have certainly had a tough time. I'll admit to the weenie side of me "freaking out" somewhat only because for awhile it's looked pretty consistent and that period has been honked for some time now (in terms of the flow and amount of incoming cold). Then the last couple of GFS runs backed off a fair bit on that (including the event in that time frame). But those are single deterministic runs and it's still a bit of a ways out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Euro on board with a frigid arctic air mass settling in Day 7 onward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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