baseball0618 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 End of Euro has a coastal.. it crushes NC before being a bit too east for us. I'm not posting this in the other thread because it's pretty absurd to have a storm thread 10 days out. agree I was posting above just as a basis along the lines of what HM was talking about. All models are showing a relatively similar split flow pattern w/ a lot of cold air in place and an abundant moisture transport. That's about all you can say right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Srn stream never ejects. It's just a baja cutoff rather than a legit Stj. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 agree I was posting above just as a basis along the lines of what HM was talking about. All models are showing a relatively similar split flow pattern w/ a lot of cold air in place and an abundant moisture transport. That's about all you can say right now. It's worth discussing but seems a bad precedent. Soon we'll have threads for day 15 storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 LOL! In all seriousness, what does the Euro show anyhow? Just for fun at least. Here's what it shows. And it is NOT fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 It is also about to bomb as the trough has gone negative. Fun to look at, at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Here's what it shows. And it is NOT fun 0-4.JPG Right where we want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 why did this get moved into the January thread when its a February storm? Ian? First precip hits on the 31st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Here's what it shows. And it is NOT fun 0-4.JPG Yeah, not fun in the sense that we get fringed by suppression and they get hammered just to the SE and East. I was being a bit facetious saying "for fun" before. Looks like it would be Boxing Day-esque (Dec. 2010) in a way. But way far out to worry much on that right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 It is also about to bomb as the trough has gone negative. Fun to look at, at least Yeah, I think last night's 00Z GFS was doing something similar. A piece of the vortex breaks off, spins down this way and things blow up. Too far south and east for us as depicted. But some d*mn serious cold air that's for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 and if you look at the Euro day 10, there's another strong clipper coming down from MN the hits (and misses) just keep coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 GGEM looks like a world ender Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 the setup for a possible big storm is there on all the guidance...so the euro and gfs are slightly south of where we want them from 10 days out...not going to even worry about that yet. of course it would be a sucker punch to the gut to get a north trend monday then a south trend for the next storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 It's worth discussing but seems a bad precedent. Soon we'll have threads for day 15 storms. bout to make a march 3-5th storm thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 bout to make a march 3-5th storm thread.Back it up a few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Euro ensembles do have a decent coastal d10-12 considering the long lead. It's going to be a long week...for Ji. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Euro ensembles do have a decent coastal d10-12 considering the long lead. It's going to be a long week...for Ji. At least we might have some cold to work with with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 At least we might have some cold to work with with this one Mean precip from d10-15 is around .70-80 or so in the area. That's pretty wet for a mean way out there in lala land. 12z run is colder through the end of the run than last night too. AK ridge is stuck in place looks like a +pna sticks around as well. Zero signs of a -nao though. Shocker. There would be no short supply of cold air if it verifies. Not a great pattern but far from a bad one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Mean precip from d10-15 is around .70-80 or so in the area. That's pretty wet for a mean way out there in lala land. 12z run is colder through the end of the run than last night too. AK ridge is stuck in place looks like a +pna sticks around as well. Zero signs of a -nao though. Shocker. There would be no short supply of cold air if it verifies. Not a great pattern but far from a bad one. That's about as wet as I've ever seen for a day 10+ ensemble mean. Huge signal that this may not be as suppressed as the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The euro weeklies are in and we average colder than normal each of the 1st 3 weeks through the 16th,then we go to normal for the 4th week. Having cold during the climo peak if true should allow us to score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The euro weeklies are in and we average colder than normal each of the 1st 3 weeks through the 16th,then we go to normal for the 4th week. Having cold during the climo peak if true should allow us to score.Feb = $$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Just for kicks, LR GFS has nice setup again similar time frame the EURO is showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The euro weeklies are in and we average colder than normal each of the 1st 3 weeks through the 16th,then we go to normal for the 4th week. Having cold during the climo peak if true should allow us to score.any blocking or just cold. Fishing cancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Just for kicks, LR GFS has nice setup again similar time frame the EURO is showing GFS with a monster.. looks like the GGEM same timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 After our monster Feb. storm- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 0z CMC is a snow machine. 4 snow events in 10 days not counting this weekend. Mon-wed-sat-mon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 0z CMC is a snow machine. 4 snow events in 10 days not counting this weekend. Mon-wed-sat-mon I freakin' love that model now. Weenie hugs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 0z CMC is a snow machine. 4 snow events in 10 days not counting this weekend. Mon-wed-sat-mon it's a re-run of the same freakin' pattern! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 it's a re-run of the same freakin' pattern! I'm not surprised with the wed-thurs possibility popping up. Euro ensembles definitely hinted at another vort possibly affecting us on that timeframe. But that was a major weenie run no matter which way you shake it. Time to look at the bright side of no -nao. Things move fast. More events. Stacking up nickels and dimes will help pass time before the hecs on Feb 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I'm not surprised with the wed-thurs possibility popping up. Euro ensembles definitely hinted at another vort possibly affecting us on that timeframe. But that was a major weenie run no matter which way you shake it. Time to look at the bright side of no -nao. Things move fast. More events. Stacking up nickels and dimes will help pass time before the hecs on Feb 1st. if we have a clipper to track every 3 days and a reasonable shot at each producing, I really don't care about a HECS plus, if a HECS comes through, it usually signals or causes a disruption in the pattern, and I'd hate to see the winter parade end anytime soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Yeah all the clipper haters will have to do some backpeddling soon if not already. I know some guy living on the Bay 80 miles southeast will say they suck no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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