Ji Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 It worked before....its going to work again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Oh god Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 It worked before....its going to work again. It's a big storm for the southeast on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Oh god you got something better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 It's a big storm for the southeast on the 12z GFS. it will be a big storm for us eventually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Between day 7-10, an extremely negative WPO/EPO pattern develops into the split flow (+PNA) over the CONUS. A polar vortex will get displaced into SE Canada. The questions that apply here for early Feb: 1. How strong of a displacement? 2. How long does it last? 3. Will there be enough amplification over the Alantic to slow things down and prevent a quick escape? The other major piece to the puzzle, which was just further complicated by the huge spread on the 00z ECMWF/EPS, is the southern stream wave. Next week 1 piece will get stuck before ultimately the "Baja Low" comes out. 1. At what speed will it come out and when it will it arrive? 2. Will it get stuck under the huge high? If it comes out in a reasonable time, not getting squashed, with the PV over Quebec (even if it's exiting as the storm is approaching), there will likely be a legitimate threat for significant snows in the Mid Atlantic. Change 1 of these 2 major players negatively, and there goes any major snow potential; but, it doesn't necessarily mean no snow either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 someone pin this bad boy now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 it will be a big storm for us eventually If we get more than 10" from any storm this winter, I'll give you $20 on PayPal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Oh god Time to chase fairies since spring will be in range on the GFS before we know it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 terrible thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Yeah, so 12z GFS gives DC 0.2" QPF, all snow, NOT a miss on this run, Southern VA, NE North Carolina get hammered. QPF reaches Harrisburg. I might be in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Wow, that is one long storm from the 1st to the 9th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 January 32-33 or bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Between day 7-10, an extremely negative WPO/EPO pattern develops into the split flow (+PNA) over the CONUS. A polar vortex will get displaced into SE Canada. The questions that apply here for early Feb: 1. How strong of a displacement? 2. How long does it last? 3. Will there be enough amplification over the Alantic to slow things down and prevent a quick escape? The other major piece to the puzzle, which was just further complicated by the huge spread on the 00z ECMWF/EPS, is the southern stream wave. Next week 1 piece will get stuck before ultimately the "Baja Low" comes out. 1. At what speed will it come out and when it will it arrive? 2. Will it get stuck under the huge high? If it comes out in a reasonable time, not getting squashed, with the PV over Quebec (even if it's exiting as the storm is approaching), there will likely be a legitimate threat for significant snows in the Mid Atlantic. Change 1 of these 2 major players negatively, and there goes any major snow potential; but, it doesn't necessarily mean no snow either. Nice summary of what to look for. With all of the moving parts and model runs ahead, we will likely see at least some digital snow, if not the real thing. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Unlike this week, end of Jan/early Feb will have legitimate Arctic Air to use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 This exact conversation played out in late November, mid December, and early January. Epic pattern is always just 10 days away. The difference is that now we can get snow with a much more imperfect pattern. Much bigger margin of error.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Don't have the climo records in front of me for the metro areas, but in my area Feb 1-4 has been a bad time for getting decent snowfall. With the exception of 1961, and a storm in 1926, daily snowfall records for that period are lower than any other days in January or February. Would love to see those records challenged this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The difference is that now we can get snow with a much more imperfect pattern. Much bigger margin of error.... Exactly. I will gladly take that setup in November again. In fact, this is exactly the same thing that happened then, happening now. The N Pac pressure fields have been ridiculously consistent on a bimonthly return rate. Pretty cool. The southern stream has come to life, and Arctic Air is expected to make another visit while the southern stream is alive. That's all you can ask for in a winter like this one and climo peak for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Exactly. I will gladly take that setup in November again. In fact, this is exactly the same thing that happened then, happening now. The N Pac pressure fields have been ridiculously consistent on a bimonthly return rate. Pretty cool. The southern stream has come to life, and Arctic Air is expected to make another visit while the southern stream is alive. That's all you can ask for in a winter like this one and climo peak for snow. yup...the biggest fear is always wasting that 1/20-2/20 period when we average 50% of our snow....what is your opinion on the NAO going negative the 1st or 2nd week of February? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 Don't have the climo records in front of me for the metro areas, but in my area Feb 1-7 has been a bad week for getting decent snowfall. With the exception of 1961, and a storm in 1926, daily snowfall records for most of that week are lower than any other days in January or February. Would love to see those records challenged this year. Did you somehow miss out on Feb 5, 2010? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Did you somehow miss out on Feb 5, 2010? Yeah, lol. I edited my post to what I actually meant, which is the first few days of February; the period this thread concerns.Need more coffee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The CMC is highlighting the potential HM is talking about. GFS has been showing this potential in the long range as well with it missing to the south. But this is just what is possible: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Don't have the climo records in front of me for the metro areas, but in my area Feb 1-4 has been a bad time for getting decent snowfall. With the exception of 1961, and a storm in 1926, daily snowfall records for that period are lower than any other days in January or February. Would love to see those records challenged this year. Because I'm sure everyone is on pins and needles to know, here are the historical DC snow totals for those four days, dating to the winter of 1884-85: Feb 1, 21.7 inches; Feb 2, 23.5 inches; Feb 3, 27.4 inches; and Feb 4, 29.1 inches. However, things then pick up dramatically: Feb 5, 40.1 inches; Feb 6, 40.5 inches; and Feb 7, 52.8 inches. The latter is the second most snow for any day in DC history, behind only the 73.0 inches recorded on January 28th. The Knickerbocker Storm has quite a lot to do with the record total, as 21.0 inches fell on January 28, 1922. The largest snowfall recorded on February 7th is 14.4 inches in 1936. For perspective, the lowest historical DC snow total for any January or February day (other than February 29th) is 6.4 inches on January 14th, although we did manage 0.2 inches last Wednesday. The lowest total for any February day (other than the 29th) is 9.4 inches on the 18th, although we again managed to defy history recently by recording 0.3 inches last year. February 29th, by the way, has recorded 3.5 inches, with the biggest storm coming in 1968, when 1.6 inches fell on that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 For what it's worth, the GEFS mean has on the order of ~0.25" QPF around the 2nd/3rd going up the coast. But it's kind of hard to make out the contour values on the plots on NCEP's site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 the GGEM looks like all hell is going to break lose on the entire country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 EURO has it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 End of Euro has a coastal.. it crushes NC before being a bit too east for us. I'm not posting this in the other thread because it's pretty absurd to have a storm thread 10 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Absolutely crushes the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 EURO has it Yea but temps are too cold. Starts in January and screws everything up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Yea but temps are too cold. Starts in January and screws everything up +1, it'll be gone by 00z anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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