ravensrule Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Exactly. Just something to pay attention to as we get past the next 2 events. haha I just realized they added DC specific postage stamps to the euro ensemble members. This is total snow through the next 15 days for half the members. The other half look no different. Optimism is warranted right now. stamps.JPG Wow that is sweet. I am sure this is the first time the EPS have looked like this since 09/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Exactly. Just something to pay attention to as we get past the next 2 events. haha I just realized they added DC specific postage stamps to the euro ensemble members. This is total snow through the next 15 days for half the members. The other half look no different. Optimism is warranted right now. stamps.JPG I think I have been optimistic for a few days now but I am wondering if the algorithm for the EURO snow maps has changed recently? Should we cut them in half and be more realistic or are those maps improved? Of course I hope they are improved and more realistic. And I do understand that whether or not they are more accurate than before or not, they point to a pretty good time ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Wow that is sweet. I am sure this is the first time the EPS have looked like this since 09/10.They looked like that for me up in pa last feb before that string of storms and I ended up with 31" over 2 weeks. Let's hope they are as prophetic this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 what does this post add to the discussion? nobody cares what you hope for. It's not like your post was gold....lay off. His post was warranted. We've seen good patterns in the long range go poof already this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 WxBell Euro member snow output is equally as suspect as the op maps. Also, a good chunk of the member snow is from the Saturday storm. We all know how close that one will be. However, a more encouraging thing is that there appears to be at least 2-3 threats beyond the weekend. The monday deal is looking pretty light on just about all the members. Later in the week a cluster of members are showing a coastal (some slow movers). And another potential event beyond that. Looking at just snow totals is bad practice for a # of reasons. However, it really does look to remain active next week into the foreseeable future. There's going to be a lot more cold air to work with next week too. We can fail in any pattern but it really looks nice as we move past this weekend's mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormPinsMike Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Is that -42c 850T north of New York on hour 276 of the 18z GFS abnormally low? Yes, I know it's hour 276, I just don't remember seeing something that low in the CONUS view before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Bob I posted about the upcoming pattern in some other sub-forums/threads....end of month looks awesome....Of course we could bat .000, but if the pattern being shown comes even close to fruition I can't imagine us not getting some snow out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Is that -42c 850T north of New York on hour 276 of the 18z GFS abnormally low? Yes, I know it's hour 276, I just don't remember seeing something that low in the CONUS view before. I don't either. 468 thickness and -42c is something I have not seen either. Lowest is -39c that I have seen on models with 474 thickness. May need 5th blue contour line for -40c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 I don't either. 468 thickness and -42c is something I have not seen either. Lowest is -39c that I have seen on models with 474 thickness. May need 5th blue contour line for -40cAm I seeing the same model? I don't see anything like that????Edit: never mind....you guys are talking WAY north of NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Am I seeing the same model? I don't see anything like that???? Edit: never mind....you guys are talking WAY north of NY Yes. Still when he said it I had to look for myself. no mixing issues with that 850 temp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evaporativecooler Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 verbatim,18z gfs has 2m temps approaching minus 60f in parts of quebec. I'd call than an intimidating airmass. certainly bodes well for early feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 verbatim,18z gfs has 2m temps approaching minus 60f in parts of quebec. I'd call than an intimidating airmass. certainly bodes well for early feb Bodes well for suppression city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 verbatim,18z gfs has 2m temps approaching minus 60f in parts of quebec. I'd call than an intimidating airmass. certainly bodes well for early feb the morning of Friday on PDII weekend there was a -40F reading in souther Quebec....I still remember commenting on Wright Weather Board about that cold morning up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evaporativecooler Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Bodes well for suppression city guess that all depends on your desired snow/cold ratio. If we can delay the high just long enough to get some fresh snow cover, theres the chance for some sexy frostbite weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 GFS not backing down on the cold next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 GFS still showing no shortage of chances....even if we're currently on the not so great side of them right now.....in the coming 1-2 week period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 All of a sudden hopes being pinned on Feb. 3 HECS. Wishing for an early spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Sure looks like we have chances before February. All of a sudden hopes being pinned on Feb. 3 HECS. Wishing for an early spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 You all get discouraged too easy. The pattern looks great. Displaced pv over Quebec. 2 distinct stj systems eject towards us. One around feb 2 and then feb 5-6. Maybe more after. So many ways that could work. If the pv stays locked in we could get massive overrunning like pd2. If the pv retrogrades and dives in we could get a massive phased storm. So many chances. It's a great look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 You all get discouraged too easy. The pattern looks great. Displaced pv over Quebec. 2 distinct stj systems eject towards us. One around feb 2 and then feb 5-6. Maybe more after. So many ways that could work. If the pv stays locked in we could get massive overrunning like pd2. If the pv retrogrades and dives in we could get a massive phased storm. So many chances. It's a great look. Currently that's a modeled look right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Currently that's a modeled look right?You have a time machine I don't know about? The rest of us, unfortunately, have to rely on the models when talking about week 2 patterns.ETA: I get your point but it's been consistently modeled by the gfs euro and ensembles for several days and the inception of the pattern is in believable range now. The basics of the pattern are good and confidence is good it may actually happen. That's the best we can say about a long range forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 the morning of Friday on PDII weekend there was a -40F reading in souther Quebec....I still remember commenting on Wright Weather Board about that cold morning up there Yup, super cold like that is not a guarantee of suppression. In fact it can help create some exciting barclonic zones. At the height of PDII, it was 9°F as the CCB was cranking and pulling that Quebequois air right into Clarksburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 You have a time machine I don't know about? The rest of us, unfortunately, have to rely on the models when talking about week 2 patterns. Thanks for proving my point....and in less than 3 paragraphs as well!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Thanks for proving my point....and in less than 3 paragraphs as well!!!See my edit above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 See my edit above I understand...this really is one of those winters that is believe it when you see it kind of deals...I know it has been advertised for awhile...hope it has legs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 This exact conversation played out in late November, mid December, and early January. Epic pattern is always just 10 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I understand...this really is one of those winters that is believe it when you see it kind of deals...I know it has been advertised for awhile...hope it has legs i have not seen a great pattern advertised at all this winter with the exception of a model run here or there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 i have not seen a great pattern advertised at all this winter with the exception of a model run here or there Thank you... I totally get the frustration I really do but consider 2 things... I think a lot to do with it is we had expectations and coming off last year it seems bad but we really are not that far below avg snowfall right now. We have been lucky compared to many regions actually. And second, this is not the same old same old. THere was a day or two in mid december when things looked good but it quickly went away well before it got within 7 days. This has been consistently on models for several days now, has been steadily progressing foreward in time, and the start of the pattern that leads to our threats are well within range where models have been better this year. I am aware none of that is a guaruntee it snows in your back yard. The pattern could still fall apart, or even if it does go exactly as advertised each specific storm could still go wrong. One could be suppressed then the pv phases and we get a cutter... lots of ways to go wrong, thus why our avg snow isnt that high, but its still a great pattern and we should be hopefull Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Thank you... I totally get the frustration I really do but consider 2 things... I think a lot to do with it is we had expectations and coming off last year it seems bad but we really are not that far below avg snowfall right now. We have been lucky compared to many regions actually. And second, this is not the same old same old. THere was a day or two in mid december when things looked good but it quickly went away well before it got within 7 days. This has been consistently on models for several days now, has been steadily progressing foreward in time, and the start of the pattern that leads to our threats are well within range where models have been better this year. I am aware none of that is a guaruntee it snows in your back yard. The pattern could still fall apart, or even if it does go exactly as advertised each specific storm could still go wrong. One could be suppressed then the pv phases and we get a cutter... lots of ways to go wrong, thus why our avg snow isnt that high, but its still a great pattern and we should be hopefull I think this is as good a summary as any I've seen. There's obviously a lot of (well deserved) disappointment in what the upcoming Friday night/Saturday event has evolved into. No two ways around it, it simply looks terrible at least for most people, and that's wording it politely. And the potential Sunday night into Monday is not looking great from the last I saw either. I think this is coloring people's perception of how things look beyond those two events ("the great pattern is always 10 days out!", etc.). Which is understandable given the glum mood. That said, I agree with what psuhoffman is saying here. The key is that in December, the "good looking pattern" wasn't around long and disappeared very quickly whereas now it's been more stable and has been appearing for awhile. Again, as he says, it's no guarantee of it happening and no guarantee of good snows in any particular location. But what the models show is what we have to go with right now, it's not like we can peer into the future and say they're right or wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I agree, PSU. If anything the teleconnections are as favorable as we have ever seen them this winter (aside from November). Keep in mind, this pattern also happens to coincide with our peak climo period. This winter has been been terrible down here, but I'll bet on the southern stream producing over these clipper events even if I have to roll the dice on a warm solution. The NAO/AO even at neutral with a PAC ridge (which is pretty much a constant feature) in Feb increase our odds exponentially. Most models are agreeing that they both fall negative by the end of the month. Caveats: The PNA and EPO needs to corporate and suppression and/or the meat-grinder COULD occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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