EastCoast NPZ Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 You may have to change your sig. Bob, I realize this is only fantasy land, but I wanted to ask a few technical questions regarding this map. 1. Would that classify as an east-based NAO? 2. Would that west-coast ridge axis be a little too far west than ideal? 3. If #1 and #2 above are "yes", then would this leave open the possibility for OV cutters? Appreciate you taking time to answer questions for someone trying to learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Bob, I realize this is only fantasy land, but I wanted to ask a few technical questions regarding this map. 1. Would that classify as an east-based NAO? 2. Would that west-coast ridge axis be a little too far west than ideal? 3. If #1 and #2 above are "yes", then would this leave open the possibility for OV cutters? Appreciate you taking time to answer questions for someone trying to learn. It's pretty much a solid -nao. AN heights from Baffin Island to Iceland. It's very similar to what HM has been talking about. The PV is on the move south and heights are building above it. The look is also a solid -AO. The numerical indices for the run completely tank (-4 AO / -2 NAO). If you run the loop you can see heights are building so it would imply high latitude continuing to build down the line. East based will typically still have BN heights over Baffin Island/Davis but ridging poking into greenland from the Atlantic. East based are transient more often than not. West based usually much more stable. The look above would also imply some stability. As far as the ridge in the west goes, it's fine. Nothing would cut. The hl blocking and displaced PV would probably favor a suppressed track if anything. Of course this is just 1 op run and absolutely nothing to get hopes up for now but I found it quite coincidental after the disco with HM yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 It's pretty much a solid -nao. AN heights from Baffin Island to Iceland. It's very similar to what HM has been talking about. The PV is on the move south and heights are building above it. The look is also a solid -AO. The numerical indices for the run completely tank (-4 AO / -2 NAO). If you run the loop you can see heights are building so it would imply high latitude continuing to build down the line. East based will typically still have BN heights over Baffin Island/Davis but ridging poking into greenland from the Atlantic. East based are transient more often than not. West based usually much more stable. The look above would also imply some stability. As far as the ridge in the west goes, it's fine. Nothing would cut. The hl blocking and displaced PV would probably favor a suppressed track if anything. Of course this is just 1 op run and absolutely nothing to get hopes up for now but I found it quite coincidental after the disco with HM yesterday. Thank you for the explanation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Thank you for the explanation! Ditto! Very nice explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 It's great to have three tabs open for this forum, and be able to click through a fourth that shows precip in thr 6hr, 72hr 114hr on the GFS... Speaking of which, the 12z still has the Monday event, looking pretty decent....! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 GFS is more north for Monday. Closes h5 right over head and rolls it across. 50-100 miles south and we would go boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 GFS is more north for Monday. Closes h5 right over head and rolls it across. 50-100 miles south and we would go boom. Still looks solid, but yes this has some upside potential to it in addition to what is shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Still looks solid, but yes this has some upside potential to it in addition to what is shown. Yes, still a great vort pass either way. It's not zipping along either. I like the idea of a long duration event event if it's not 1" qpf. Wouldn't take much for this to be a substantial event for someone on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 GFS is more north for Monday. Closes h5 right over head and rolls it across. 50-100 miles south and we would go boom. Yup, not digging as far south as previous runs. Hope that's not the beginning of a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 GFS is more north for Monday. Closes h5 right over head and rolls it across. 50-100 miles south and we would go boom. You're right - I spoke a panel too soon. Do you think a weaker Fri/Sat system results in a further north track - and that correspondingly a deeper low early in the weekend drives the Monday clipper further south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Yes, still a great vort pass either way. It's not zipping along either. I like the idea of a long duration event event if it's not 1" qpf. Wouldn't take much for this to be a substantial event for someone on the coast. What I like about it the most I think is to get a solid 2-4/3-5 event, this doesn't have to go out of its way and overperform. Its a powerful system and a good vort rolling through. There is the chance to do what the euro did last night, but as long as it doesn't start zipping north on future runs, its not an overly hard set-up to model. Of course these sytems jump around but now were at a d4.5 lead which isn't THAT far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 GFS is more north for Monday. Closes h5 right over head and rolls it across. 50-100 miles south and we would go boom. We need that for the boundary layer too. Verbatim the GFS is rain despite the 850s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 We need that for the boundary layer too. Verbatim the GFS is rain despite the 850s. Yep, slp tracking overhead is never a good thing for surface temps. I'm sure we'll see plenty of wobbles on the track over the next several days. So much happens in front of it I'm not even really thinking about it that much and it's less than a week away. lol. Busy times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Yup, not digging as far south as previous runs. Hope that's not the beginning of a trend. My fear is that it would go too far south...lots of time for this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Gfs misses to our south with the groundhog storm, but that setup has more potential than the last 5 combined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Did the Monday storm die on us? No, new thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Euro is an icebox for next wednesday. Single digits and sub zero by the md line / parrs ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I was so caught up looking at the storms I almost missed that. And another run in a row with a developing solid -ao/nao combo...pv gets displaced into SE canada. There are some really good signs showing up for our run into Feb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Damn, just like the gfs...the euro is setting up for a phased storm at the end of the run. With blocking! It's only 2 more storms and 10 days away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 And another run in a row with a developing solid -ao/nao combo...pv gets displaced into SE canada. There are some really good signs showing up for our run into Feb... I know. A lot on the plate now. Have to enjoy tracking each event as they come. Looks like another arctic shot on Friday as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Damn, just like the gfs...the euro is setting up for a phased storm at the end of the run. With blocking! It's only 2 more storms and 10 days away... Hope it keeps it! I will be back to enjoy! Instead of PTO I need STO - Snow Time Off! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I don't think we've seen something like this since 2010. The ss shortwave is digging a bit too much but @ d10 fantasy who cares. All I see here is a phased miller A down the line. -AO/NAO/+PNA and streams about to phase. Arctic air in place. I'm surprised Hberg hasn't been by yet. This is a good a look as we've seen in like forever. It will disappear in 12 hours I'm sure but definitely fun to look at. I'm sure folks in the SE are pretty interested too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I don't think we've seen something like this since 2010. The ss shortwave is digging a bit too much but @ d10 fantasy who cares. All I see here is a phased miller A down the line. -AO/NAO/+PNA and streams about to phase. Arctic air in place. I'm surprised Hberg hasn't been by yet. This is a good a look as we've seen in like forever. It will disappear in 12 hours I'm sure but definitely fun to look at. I'm sure folks in the SE are pretty interested too. euroh5d10.JPG eurovortd10.JPG eurosurfaced10.JPG Very interesting look for sure. I hope this sticks around longer than the last promising pattern we saw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I'm sure folks in the SE are pretty interested too. url] Absolutely. It's easily the best LR look we have seen down this way. Good luck with the events you guys are tracking...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
infekshus Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I don't think we've seen something like this since 2010. The ss shortwave is digging a bit too much but @ d10 fantasy who cares. All I see here is a phased miller A down the line. -AO/NAO/+PNA and streams about to phase. Arctic air in place. I'm surprised Hberg hasn't been by yet. This is a good a look as we've seen in like forever. It will disappear in 12 hours I'm sure but definitely fun to look at. I'm sure folks in the SE are pretty interested too. euroh5d10.JPG eurovortd10.JPG eurosurfaced10.JPG that confluence. (as you said) much like we saw in 2010...phase that SS, run it into the confluence, and it can only go so far N...a zwyts favorite: 40S special. Very interesting look for sure. I hope this sticks around longer than the last promising pattern we saw... what does this post add to the discussion? nobody cares what you hope for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Just think in a week this will be a good winter. In two it might be a great winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I don't think we've seen something like this since 2010. The ss shortwave is digging a bit too much but @ d10 fantasy who cares. All I see here is a phased miller A down the line. -AO/NAO/+PNA and streams about to phase. Arctic air in place. I'm surprised Hberg hasn't been by yet. This is a good a look as we've seen in like forever. It will disappear in 12 hours I'm sure but definitely fun to look at. I'm sure folks in the SE are pretty interested too. euroh5d10.JPG eurovortd10.JPG eurosurfaced10.JPG Excellent look for sure. Similar looking -AO/NAO to what you showed earlier from the 00Z run (if I recall). The precise details may "disappear" in 12 hours, but I think the main players have been showing up now for a little while. And you're right...that confluence is something we haven't seen for some years. At least that ideally. Sort of a ridge-bridge forming there too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I like when Ian is optimistic.Just wait till we thread the needle on biggy number one. (this post may be subterfuge) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I don't think we've seen something like this since 2010. The ss shortwave is digging a bit too much but @ d10 fantasy who cares. All I see here is a phased miller A down the line. -AO/NAO/+PNA and streams about to phase. Arctic air in place. I'm surprised Hberg hasn't been by yet. This is a good a look as we've seen in like forever. It will disappear in 12 hours I'm sure but definitely fun to look at. I'm sure folks in the SE are pretty interested too. euroh5d10.JPG eurovortd10.JPG eurosurfaced10.JPG GFS had a similar setup. It's not hyperbole to say it's a pattern that could produce a KU. Doesn't mean it will happen and it's not the first time this year we've had an advertised Day 10-15 pattern that's looked KUish. Obviously none have materialized yet, but maybe we'll get lucky. We could have a really nice stretch of winter starting today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 GFS had a similar setup. It's not hyperbole to say it's a pattern that could produce a KU. Doesn't mean it will happen and it's not the first time this year we've had an advertised Day 10-15 pattern that's looked KUish. Obviously none have materialized yet, but maybe we'll get lucky. We could have a really nice stretch of winter starting today. Exactly. Just something to pay attention to as we get past the next 2 events. haha I just realized they added DC specific postage stamps to the euro ensemble members. This is total snow through the next 15 days for half the members. The other half look no different. Optimism is warranted right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.