HM Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Let's face it: we've kicked off "50-50 low chance" season this past Saturday with that storm, this clipper sequence and now possible 3 different storms in the medium range. If this series of waves cannot carve out a solid PV displacement into SE Canada, I'm not sure what can at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 It is nice though it's also weird. I guess it's the trailing vort that screws it up on this run.. or something. It's like it's going boom then it decides to wobble around. The wobbler. Maybe I'm too short sighted because of the last "long duration event" the euro spit out ended up being more focused. My hunch is things consolidate as we get closer. The weirdness is more likely noise because it's awful tuff to nail an active ns at medium leads. At the very least all reliable guidance digs below us. Do we whiff? Might be more difficult than usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Let's face it: we've kicked off "50-50 low chance" season this past Saturday with that storm, this clipper sequence and now possible 3 different storms in the medium range. If this series of waves cannot carve out a solid PV displacement into SE Canada, I'm not sure what can at this point. Tenman's Johnson has said it's this week or bust as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Maybe I'm too short sighted because of the last "long duration event" the euro spit out ended up being more focused. My hunch is things consolidate as we get closer. The weirdness is more likely noise because it's awful tuff to nail an active ns at medium leads. At the very least all reliable guidance digs below us. Do we whiff? Might be more difficult than usual. I'm still more interested in it than the first coastal event.. I think. Other than timing the first seems ripe for fail at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Tenman's Johnson has said it's this week or bust as well. Only you could make me lol at this hour. Anyway, when that Baja Pac magic arrives with classic split flow and a nice Canadian High builds down...we better have a somewhat decent Atlantic in place for early Feb. If so, it will be the kind of storm Ji is looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Only you could make me lol at this hour. Anyway, when that Baja Pac magic arrives with classic split flow and a nice Canadian High builds down...we better have a somewhat decent Atlantic in place for early Feb. If so, it will be the kind of storm Ji is looking for. Considering the Atlantic would have a hard time being worse your post plays the odds like a handicapper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Considering the Atlantic would have a hard time being worse your post plays the odds like a handicapper That's how you do it in long range. lol...I'm not looking for anything classic or 2009-10 like here. I'm looking for split flow setup running into a PV that was recently displaced...like 2003. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Only you could make me lol at this hour. Anyway, when that Baja Pac magic arrives with classic split flow and a nice Canadian High builds down...we better have a somewhat decent Atlantic in place for early Feb. If so, it will be the kind of storm Ji is looking for. I'm not too worried just yet. In another 10 days that could be another story. Though I've already said this is a better winter than the two before last.. some debate, but in the city it's not even that close IMO. The early month clipper was nice.. cold snow, covered everything. That definitely helped. Of course without it I'd be floating down the Potomac with Ji at this point maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Holy EPO break at day 10. Yeah there's no warmth coming if that's even close to accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 JI storm on GFS in la la land 1-2' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Man, that was some GFS run tonight. 6 snowfalls in 16 days here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 That's how you do it in long range. lol...I'm not looking for anything classic or 2009-10 like here. I'm looking for split flow setup running into a PV that was recently displaced...like 2003. Long range is a stock market head scratcher for the best in the business. No sure things but hedging works. The best hedgers make the most. I've been reading your posts for years and you are no doubt a top tier hedger. And also quick to step down when things go awry unlike others at times. Hopefully Feb works but we might hit climo before then...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 JI storm on GFS in la la land 1-2' Gotta love the sub zero temps afterwards. 2ft. of snow followed by -8. Wait til JB sees it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Man that Feb storm is something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Man that Feb storm is something. and there are more after that! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Gotta love the sub zero temps afterwards. 2ft. of snow followed by -8. Wait til JB sees it. 2 bucks says he mentions the Kennedy Inaugural storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Man that Feb storm is something.You might finally see you're 20". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 2 bucks says he mentions the Kennedy Inaugural storm He broke out Jan. 66 today in one of his posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 He broke out Jan. 66 today in one of his posts. welp, there you have it he uses it at least once every year and I haven't paid to read his stuff since he left Accuwx he needs some new material.....and I hope we can give him some over the next month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 It would be great if this clipper heralds the arrival of a parade of storms...but...one storm at a time If we get a clipper, even 1/4 qpf as snow this weekend, more snow Monday.. then three giant storms to start Feb this winter is going to look pretty awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 You might finally see you're 20". Delayed but not denied. All with two positive NAOs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Delayed but not denied. All with two positive NAOs.With science and medicine you can never be denied Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Best long range GFS run I've seen in a while. Ground hog glazer looks awesome. Even without the NAO we have the EPO and the STJ and the vortex in Quebec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Sunday night/Monday is 6"+ on euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Sunday night/Monday is 6"+ on euro Yes matt its nothing short of a flush hit honestly. Good run for all 3 events to that point if you have reasonable expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Weird depiction with that deform(ish) stuff west of DC. I'd expect with an h5 like that and the set-up it would be an area wide warning event, but who is parsing those details with 2 events before it and at 5 day leads. I really do like that one for most of the area, especially considering temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Weird depiction with that deform(ish) stuff west of DC. I'd expect with an h5 like that and the set-up it would be an area wide warning event, but who is parsing those details with 2 events before it and at 5 day leads. I really do like that one for most of the area, especially considering temps. it might dig more...it is awkward, but the 18z GFS was awkward in a similar fashion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Storm number 4 is next Friday...right now mostly suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Short version: 6z GFS is less snow, more cold rain, throughout the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Storm number 4 is next Friday...right now mostly suppressed You may have to change your sig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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