AlaskaETC Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 210, the low starts going OTS. South VA gets a good hit though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 18z GFS looks great for the late week storm, it's very moisture-loaded. A near-miss verbatim. North Carolina into Southern Virginia gets a good snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Too many people throwing around Miller A, B, and Lite that don't know what they're talking about. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/1415-miller-a-vs-miller-b/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Pos tilt keeps it from coming up. No cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 OTS is much better to see than a Buffalo crusher at this juncture. Would like to hold onto this solution until Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 https://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/1415-miller-a-vs-miller-b/ I know what they are. The people who have been using them dont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I know what they are. The people who use them dont. Thus why I was posting it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I don't care what weenie laments this, but it's good ots sea now. I'm dead serious. I don't want it looking anywhere near what the euro showed until like 12z Tuesday. When has a 200+ prog looked exactly like the actual prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 OTS is much better to see than a Buffalo crusher at this juncture. Would like to hold onto this solution until Tuesday Damn. Swear to God I didn't see your post when I made mine. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I don't care what weenie laments this, but it's good ots sea now. I'm dead serious. I don't want it looking anywhere near what the euro showed until like 12z Tuesday. When has a 200+ prog looked exactly like the actual prediction. The opening act clipper is going to steal the show soon. Then we'll be talking snow on snow. And how it's going to stick on the ground for 2 weeks as the bay freezes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The opening act clipper is going to steal the show soon. Then we'll be talking snow on snow. And how it's going to stick on the ground for 2 weeks as the bay freezes over. I want to post something intelligent and relevant in response to this but I'm drawing a blank lol....So I'll just be a total weenie and say please let this come true... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I don't care what weenie laments this, but it's good ots sea now. I'm dead serious. I don't want it looking anywhere near what the euro showed until like 12z Tuesday. When has a 200+ prog looked exactly like the actual prediction. Randy, you've gotten better at being an educated weenie. I'd take the GFS in a heart beat at 144 hours as the 500h looks really close to being a good hit and would suggest to me the precipitation would get up to us. That said, I could still see it ending up a miller b and screwing us. It's way too early to say but out to sea is better as storms come north more often than they come south unless you have a mega block and strongly negative NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2015 Author Share Posted January 16, 2015 The opening act clipper is going to steal the show soon. Then we'll be talking snow on snow. And how it's going to stick on the ground for 2 weeks as the bay freezes over. Jan is good for snow cover. I still have a thin snow cover in the yard 9 days after a 2 1/4" snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2015 Author Share Posted January 16, 2015 The clipper looks potent on the ens members (GFS). Not necessarily a hit here, but pretty strong somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 The 18z was by far the most active model run of the season. Plenty of chances and plenty of cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I don't care what weenie laments this, but it's good ots sea now. I'm dead serious. I don't want it looking anywhere near what the euro showed until like 12z Tuesday. When has a 200+ prog looked exactly like the actual prediction.This!!!!!!Op runs will continue to bounce around so getting one great run is ok but we don't want it locking in on the perfect solution now. It's never going to be exactly right this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I don't care what weenie laments this, but it's good ots sea now. I'm dead serious. I don't want it looking anywhere near what the euro showed until like 12z Tuesday. When has a 200+ prog looked exactly like the actual prediction. I know, I know...I am all better now.. I went to work and got my mind off of it for 8 hours.. The next thing I really want to see is run to run consistency supporting a storm developing in the gulf. If we can get that within say 120 hours... Then I will start to buy in. Wes made a good case for an improving pattern moving in to late week... So if we can just hold on to the gulf idea... We could get lucky with the right timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 We are getting run to run consistency with a gulf low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2015 Author Share Posted January 16, 2015 BTW, when does the torch start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 We are getting run to run consistency with a gulf low. Yes or at least a juicy LLJ coming up. It won't be a clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 We are getting run to run consistency with a gulf low. I agree but its still a little bit too far out for any real confidence. Saturday is when it starts getting real. But in the mean time this is a lot of fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 These run are starting to get fun...I still think outside of day 5-6, there are no discrete threats, just windows....and we have a lot of windows of opportunity coming up. Hopefully we cash in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 These run are starting to get fun...I still think outside of day 5-6, there are no discrete threats, just windows....and we have a lot of windows of opportunity coming up. Hopefully we cash in... Matt, I agree that after about day 5 or 6 all we are really talking about are windows of opportunity. Loolks like we'll have a few coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 The 18z was by far the most active model run of the season. Plenty of chances and plenty of cold. It was, indeed, pretty damned active looking. I also took a peek at the Polar view on NCEP's MAG page, just to get a better idea of what might be going on at the Pole. Haven't looked much at that perspective lately. Toward the end of the run, it showed high heights right over the Pole with what appeared to be an extension toward Greenland (whatever that might be worth). You can kind of see it evolve and push over the Polar region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Matt, I agree that after about day 5 or 6 all we are really talking about are windows of opportunity. Loolks like we'll have a few coming up. I know you agree. You taught me that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 These run are starting to get fun...I still think outside of day 5-6, there are no discrete threats, just windows....and we have a lot of windows of opportunity coming up. Hopefully we cash in... And we still have the real chance of reaching average. This January so far has removed the feel of those <5" DCA winters we've experienced in the last five years. Looking at the recent seasons that ended up somewhat respectable/near either median or average- 98/99, 99/00, 03/04, 04/05, 05/06, 06/07, 10/11-- they've all had four to eight accumulating events total. So, as long as the windows heading forward don't look hostile, a "respectable season" is still the goal for me. 3 or 4 more events from now through the end of March does not seem at this point unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 And we still have the real chance of reaching average. This January so far has removed the feel of those <5" DCA winters we've experienced in the last five years. Looking at the recent seasons that ended up somewhat respectable/near either median or average- 98/99, 99/00, 03/04, 04/05, 05/06, 06/07, 10/11-- they've all had four to eight accumulating events total. So, as long as the windows heading forward don't look hostile, a "respectable season" is still the goal for me. 3 or 4 more events from now through the end of March does not seem at this point unlikely. For my backyard I'd put the over/under for measurable events from now through the end of March at 5.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I know you agree. You taught me that. I never really looked at it that way but it does make a lot of sense. Looking back at storms that did deliver I'm sure many of them developed from another vort or piece of energy that was not supposed to be the original storm outside of 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2015 Author Share Posted January 16, 2015 Guys, don't forget that last winter didn't really start until Jan 21....outside of one pretty good week in early December, we were really at almost the same spot wrt snow. And many here didn't have that good week in Dec. Maybe Matt can chime in...his snow total now might be higher than it was on this date last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Guys, don't forget that last winter didn't really start until Jan 21....outside of one pretty good week in early December, we were really at almost the same spot wrt snow. And many here didn't have that good week in Dec. Maybe Matt can chime in...his snow total now might be higher than it was on this date last year. Last winter at this point I had 4". I currently have 3.5", and for me, 1/6/15 was a better storm all around than the 1/2-3/14. Of course I am not expecting 14" in March. But reaching median IMBY (12-13") is certainly not unreasonable. Here is a piece of what I posted on FB earlier about the next 5 weeks. https://www.facebook.com/HeadfulOfSnow "I would put the over/under on snow between now and February 20th for DC proper at around the median. Meaning, I think we have equal chances of exceeding or failing to reach 7" during the 5 week period." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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