usedtobe Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I think I like this threat more than the weekend IMBY but the GFS run here is whack. I've always liked it better than the weekend threat though the Saturday one may be good for some, not likely for me or you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I've always liked it better than the weekend threat though the Saturday one may be good for some, not likely for me or you.I weenied a bit this morning about the weekend. I think I've stabilized since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I weenied a bit this morning about the weekend. I think I've stabilized since. That's excusable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I weenied a bit this morning about the weekend. I think I've stabilized since. Good.. and do not forget to clean up after yourself... AGAIN - out of town Saturday (although that may be Sunday by the looks of things) until Thursday! This means nothing but whining! At this lead, and the pattern, snow looks good for Monday as well... crazy times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Euro ensemble mean qpf for Mon-Wed is about .30 give or take. Pretty decent signal on the members but quite a bit of spread (which is to be expected). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The day 7 event reminds me a lot of Feb 2-4 2009 with its light inverted trough type snows. A heavy band sat over S Philly and dumped like 8-11" over them. Pattern looks very similar over the CONUS 500mb looks very similar; 18z GFS; Feb 2-4 2009: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 FYI, NINO is having a big resurgence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The day 7 event reminds me a lot of Feb 2-4 2009 with its light inverted trough type snows. A heavy band sat over S Philly and dumped like 8-11" over them. Pattern looks very similar over the CONUS 500mb looks very similar; 18z GFS; Feb 2-4 2009: we know...we remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I've always liked it better than the weekend threat though the Saturday one may be good for some, not likely for me or you.The thing that would bother me immensely Wes is if the 24-25th system ends up being a cold rain for us east of 95, while the 27th track ends up going too far south and we end up cold/dry. Please no!Either way...should be a fun 6-7 days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 FYI, NINO is having a big resurgence Here's why. Also -SOI is on roids right now. There is a rather large pool of sub-surface cool anomalies developing E of the dateline however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 We don't need much. Toss us a few good southern stream sys in first half of feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 We don't need much. Toss us a few good southern stream sys in first half of feb. A reborn mini-Nino would have much of an impact anyways though, would it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Here's why. Also -SOI is on roids right now. There is a rather large pool of sub-surface cool anomalies developing E of the dateline however. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.week.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 The day 7 event reminds me a lot of Feb 2-4 2009 with its light inverted trough type snows. A heavy band sat over S Philly and dumped like 8-11" over them. Pattern looks very similar over the CONUS 500mb looks very similar; 18z GFS; Feb 2-4 2009: That was a crappy event here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 That was a crappy event here Looks like the vort and location of any hint of a close circulation is south of that event so I wouldn't use it as an analog for DC but it does show how such troughs can give big snows for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 A reborn mini-Nino would have much of an impact anyways though, would it? It doesn't hurt and would certainly help awaken the southern stream. I wouldn't be that fun going through Feb relying on the northern stream. We may anyways but anything going in our favor leading into Feb is a net +. We have to collectively will the Atlantic to get right. The clock is ticking there and it's been more stubborn than JB admitting his winter forecast sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 A reborn mini-Nino would have much of an impact anyways though, would it? Could delay spring and make for miserable March April? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The back to back storms are the best in my opinion. And they seem to happen surprisingly often around here. The first vort moving into the 50/50 position. With a weak HP to the north of the second vort. Pretty exciting week ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Wow, just saw the 18Z happy hour GFS, and that is a clipper on steroids!! Wet slushy snow on Friday and fluffy powder on Monday. Lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 GFS getting to the wobbler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 GFS getting to the wobbler. That's a potent h5 map on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 That's a potent h5 map on the GFS Looks like it develops a coastal down by OBX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 That's a potent h5 map on the GFS yeah it looks nice initially but it's doing the same thing as before with it getting all weirded out with time. it is cold though.. perfect for suppression after the rainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Damn..GFS. Man, that may be THE storm to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 GFS at h5 looks like it would go negative a lot earlier. Ian's right. Something funky occurs right before it gets good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 yeah it looks nice initially but it's doing the same thing as before with it getting all weirded out with time. it is cold though.. perfect for suppression after the rainer. We both love h5 at this lead. It's going to close off in future runs before it opens back up in runs after that...haha It's a pretty ripe ns setup for us. I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Damn..GFS. Man, that may be THE storm to watch No one knows what's going to happen .. it can't be predicted outside 72 hours. It would be pretty wild to get two solid coastals that quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 We both love h5 at this lead. It's going to close off in future runs before it opens back up in runs after that...haha It's a pretty ripe ns setup for us. I'm in. It is nice though it's also weird. I guess it's the trailing vort that screws it up on this run.. or something. It's like it's going boom then it decides to wobble around. The wobbler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 It is nice though it's also weird. I guess it's the trailing vort that screws it up on this run.. or something. It's like it's going boom then it decides to wobble around. The wobbler. trough is too broad, so the slp just meanders in it almost, then it develops off the coast http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=147ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_147_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150121+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I think we go 0-3 and will be disappointed when all is said and done with our threesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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