Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 YOu can look at the statistics and see that the models continue to improve. The various centers like ECMWF and NCEP do lots of testing before implementing new versions of the models. If hte model is inferior they are not going to implement it. The idea that he models are worse because of higher resolution is the same type of anecdotal claims as vaccinations cause autism. There is no evidence to back it up. The big reason models jump around is because of chaos. Good point on the anecdotal claims, I think that's a lot of what goes on. Everyone remembers when models appear to jump around for big storms but not so much when they hit the overall large scale pattern it seems (though that may be anecdotal on my part, hahaha!). I've seen occasional talk about "hey weren't they solid as a rock 5+ days out in 2010??" but then people forget that we were in a very predictable pattern then so being apparently rock solid wasn't much of a surprise. My 2 coins here, but I wonder if some of the apparent belief that things are "less stable" is simply the amount of model data that's now available compared to 10 or more years ago. We've got 4 cycles of the GFS and NAM, plus you throw in various ensembles and access to other globals. Not to mention the very short range RAP and HRRR. So it seems to me this is an effect of being better able to see the "chaos", not that the models "suck more" (because of high res, or whatever). This is not something that was quite so visible (a bit hidden?) many years ago when we got two cycles a day, and not out to 384 hours. I think others have alluded to these same thoughts. It's pretty evident the models overall are far better now than they were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I'm not sure I follow. Technically we are in a ridge west trough east at this very moment so that is real time. But tomorrow is also ridging in the west and troughing in the east. Is that a chase? EH FORGET IT BOB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 HM, looks like models have locked into the strat pv migrating to Siberia and warming at all levels over yukon/greeland during the next 10 days. What affect can this have irt the ao/nao? I know the connection isn't direct so there are no sure things but it's a different look than I've seen since I started paying attention to the strat. When the stratospheric PV is displaced to Siberia, the edge of it/surf zone develops over two key areas: deeper into Eurasia and over northern Canada/Greenland. Waves can upwell here, warm and slow down the jet stream around the polar vortex. This doesn't guarantee blocking, but it makes it easier for it to happen from the EPO to NAO regions. The other thing that can happen is this displaced vortex can make it favorable a wave 1 attack and a renewed warming from the mountains of Asia (particularly the Sayan/Altai, Tibetan Plateau and Urals). This can ultimately weaken the vortex, which the ensembles have been showing down the road. Finally, a displaced vortex/further south surf zone creates better compound mixing/ozone flux (warm air advection) when it gets even slightly displaced off climo location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 This is analogous to tornadic mesocyclones. The mesocyclone is the stratospheric vortex and the tornadoes are the tropospheric centers. When the mesocyclone moves somewhere, weakens, changes shapes etc. it will affect the behavior of the tornadoes. If the edge of the mesocyclone moves away, you can see anticyclonic shear on the edge and slower winds. The troposphere below develops more chaotic motions instead of fast streams of air whirling around the meso. Does this make sense? And when the meso weakens/dies....so do the tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 YOu can look at the statistics and see that the models continue to improve. The various centers like ECMWF and NCEP do lots of testing before implementing new versions of the models. If hte model is inferior they are not going to implement it. The idea that he models are worse because of higher resolution is the same type of anecdotal claims as vaccinations cause autism. There is no evidence to back it up. The big reason models jump around is because of chaos.Plus we look way further out than we used to. I don't care what anyone says we weren't tracking 'trends' on d8-10 storms in 2002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 When the stratospheric PV is displaced to Siberia, the edge of it/surf zone develops over two key areas: deeper into Eurasia and over northern Canada/Greenland. Waves can upwell here, warm and slow down the jet stream around the polar vortex. This doesn't guarantee blocking, but it makes it easier for it to happen from the EPO to NAO regions. The other thing that can happen is this displaced vortex can make it favorable a wave 1 attack and a renewed warming from the mountains of Asia (particularly the Sayan/Altai, Tibetan Plateau and Urals). This can ultimately weaken the vortex, which the ensembles have been showing down the road. Finally, a displaced vortex/further south surf zone creates better compound mixing/ozone flux (warm air advection) when it gets even slightly displaced off climo location. Thanks man! It's all starting to make more sense. My simple thoughts were similar irt the nao domain. Basically, I was thinking the displaced vortex would not act as such a wall of denial for stable higher heights over the NAO domain to get established IF the pattern in troposphere was favorable for such a development. Looks like the euro is showing some significant warming @ 10mb over southern Russia/mongolia/china down the line but the warming at the lower levels is significantly weaker and over north america. I assume this is not ideal but the overall progression over the next week could potentially help us if other things cooperate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Plus we look way further out than we used to. I don't care what anyone says we weren't tracking 'trends' on d8-10 storms in 2002. I was only watching TWC in 02. lol. One thing we're all guilty of (me in particular) is when the medium to short range sucks all we do is look for the next threat no matter how far out it is. I spent all of 2011-12 looking at op runs beyond 240. There was nothing else to do. OTOH, we spend most of last year looking inside of d7 for the most part because there was always something there to discuss. When it's obvious it sucks for 10 days, what can we do? Analyze how bad it's going to suck? My fingers have a hard time typing those posts. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Thanks man! It's all starting to make more sense. My simple thoughts were similar irt the nao domain. Basically, I was thinking the displaced vortex would not act as such a wall of denial for stable higher heights over the NAO domain to get established IF the pattern in troposphere was favorable for such a development. Looks like the euro is showing some significant warming @ 10mb over southern Russia/mongolia/china down the line but the warming at the lower levels is significantly weaker and over north america. I assume this is not ideal but the overall progression over the next week could potentially help us if other things cooperate? The whole key here is getting cooperation from various players. Just having the stratosphere overhead become favorable for blocking doesn't mean we will be cold and snowy, just like anything else. Unfortunately, big names in our field have and continue to incorrectly use the stratosphere for the sake of hype. A big warming somewhere tells us nothing. If you can get that to jive with the MJO, background pattern and z-circulations...then you've got something. A great example of this was in 2009-10 when the MJO, stratosphere and associated z-circulations all came together to signal the switch in late Jan and epic Feb. As for the next two weeks, as long as the PV is displaced, the flow will be reduced on our side of the pole and each upwelling disturbance will further weaken the PV. Another tropospheric vortex displacement into Quebec is possible in early Feb as the upwelling disturbance from Asia hooks up with the Aleutian High. This creates more of a lobed undulation/trough over eastern North America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The whole key here is getting cooperation from various players. Just having the stratosphere overhead become favorable for blocking doesn't mean we will be cold and snowy, just like anything else. Unfortunately, big names in our field have and continue to incorrectly use the stratosphere for the sake of hype. A big warming somewhere tells us nothing. If you can get that to jive with the MJO, background pattern and z-circulations...then you've got something. A great example of this was in 2009-10 when the MJO, stratosphere and associated z-circulations all came together to signal the switch in late Jan and epic Feb. As for the next two weeks, as long as the PV is displaced, the flow will be reduced on our side of the pole and each upwelling disturbance will further weaken the PV. Another tropospheric vortex displacement into Quebec is possible in early Feb as the upwelling disturbance from Asia hooks up with the Aleutian High. This creates more of a lobed undulation/trough over eastern North America. Great post. I've never liked hearing "SSW" over the years because 1) it meant that we were in trouble and 2) when they did happen the expected results at the surface were hit and miss. I've never had much of any confidence in "SSW incoming!" because the connection in my mind was far from 1:1. And your post eloquently explains why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Thanks for this great explanation of the variables and their interaction. The whole key here is getting cooperation from various players. Just having the stratosphere overhead become favorable for blocking doesn't mean we will be cold and snowy, just like anything else. Unfortunately, big names in our field have and continue to incorrectly use the stratosphere for the sake of hype. A big warming somewhere tells us nothing. If you can get that to jive with the MJO, background pattern and z-circulations...then you've got something. A great example of this was in 2009-10 when the MJO, stratosphere and associated z-circulations all came together to signal the switch in late Jan and epic Feb.As for the next two weeks, as long as the PV is displaced, the flow will be reduced on our side of the pole and each upwelling disturbance will further weaken the PV. Another tropospheric vortex displacement into Quebec is possible in early Feb as the upwelling disturbance from Asia hooks up with the Aleutian High. This creates more of a lobed undulation/trough over eastern North America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 From the crude maps I have access to (Plymouth) looks like a pretty vigorous clipper on the 12Z Euro days 6-7. Anyone have QPF for that one ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 From the crude maps I have access to (Plymouth) looks like a pretty vigorous clipper on the 12Z Euro days 6-7. Anyone have QPF for that one ? constant precip for 2 days or so but nothing really heavy. .52 for Leesburg over like 48 hours haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The Monday storm's track is dependent on the Saturday storm's track which is dependent on tomorrow's storm's track. Its a threat window, but not much more then that right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I don't care, I'll say it....15Z Srefs real healthy for Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I don't care, I'll say it....15Z Srefs real healthy for Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Yeah I'm not sure haha, thinking he meant for the weekend, but they would look to run inland. Loaded however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Yeah I'm not sure haha, thinking he meant for the weekend, but they would look to run inland. Loaded however. oooops! yeah, Saturday and it does look good, even temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Euro ensembles are quite bullish on the clipper too next week. It's a beast for a clipper. Of course there's also a hint we get screwed in the redevelopment/jump but seasonal trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I like the meso analogy. It's true. Just have to try and beat down the zombie from bottom up. At least models are trying to an NATL ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Euro ensembles are quite bullish on the clipper too next week. It's a beast for a clipper. Of course there's also a hint we get screwed in the redevelopment/jump but seasonal trends.Yea, looked pretty sweet. I'm not even sure clipper is s good word for this one. It's like a legit and developed northern stream storm Hard to say how we would fare as it gets going off the coast. Might be too little too late. Too far for that kind of specifics anyways. Would still be a light to moderate accum event even if we miss redevelopment. Should get a weenie run In the next couple days when it digs deep and turns the corner... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Yea, looked pretty sweet. I'm not even sure clipper is s good word for this one. It's like a legit and developed northern stream storm Hard to say how we would fare as it gets going off the coast. Might be too little too late. Too far for that kind of specifics anyways. Would still be a light to moderate accum event even if we miss redevelopment. Should get a weenie run In the next couple days when it digs deep and turns the corner... re "item 3 on the agenda", it's still a clipper on the 18z GFS, but a pretty juiced one... ETA: I didn't expect it to just hit the brakes right overhead. Do clippers do that? ETA: Whoah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 re "item 3 on the agenda", it's still a clipper on the 18z GFS, but a pretty juiced one... It looks good this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Interesting set-up for the 26th/27th storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 trough gets all discombobulated and hung up but not bad.. cold better than warm when it's going to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Wow...best GFS run I've yet seen for the Monday event. Decent amount of moisture around. Jackpot for Wes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 LOL at the GFS...It's a 6"+ event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 LOL at the GFS...It's a 6"+ event 24+ hours of light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 not a fan of how 500 plays out but we are a clipper/northern stream town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 24+ hours of light snow hopefully some heavy stuff in there...of course this run is out to lunch anyway, but some good model porn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 hopefully some heavy stuff in there...of course this run is out to lunch anyway, but some good model porn I think I like this threat more than the weekend IMBY but the GFS run here is whack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.