January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2

[Bob Chill]

I hear you, but weren't we tracking the last few weeks as "exciting" for various events? They either fizzled or were rain.

Not really. A week or so ago, it looked like the earliest things would look better was Jan 25th so anything this week is more a bonus than anything else. The relax is ending up cooler and shorter than first thought. Doesn't mean it's a good productive pattern but it's still a winter pattern. The mlk rainer was advertised well in advance.

Speaking for myself, I've completely given up on a classic blocky pattern and am no longer chasing it or discussing it. Would be great if it happens but it sure isn't on the radar. I'm totally fine with what's in front of us. Looks like the next couple weeks have decent chances and we're in peak climo.

[psuhoffman]

18z gfs proves my point. 12z tanked the nao around 240 hrs. Then boom big storm. 18z the nao stays positive and the storm is suddenly a cutter. It's been this way for weeks. The only runs that show a big hit for our areas do so with nao help. That's why I'm skeptical of this waiting for something to work out without it. We have been waiting all winter and it seems every threat is either a cutter or suppressed. When we had good storm tracks back in November abs December the nao wasn't raging positive. It's pretty obvious to me what the key is. I suppose if we get enough chances maybe eventually we get lucky but that seems like something I wouldnt want to depend on.

[dallen7908]

The CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks call for below normal temperatures and normal precipitation (above normal precipitation just to our north).  What stands out is their confidence 5 out of 5.  Hopefully, we will be far enough north to participate in some of the fun.  

 

While last week's forecaster Baxter leaned heavily on the Euro ensembles, this week's forecaster Charles is giving approximately equal weight to the GFS and ECMWFensembles.

[HighStakes]

let's see if that is a good thing. If we get through the week without any significant snow I would argue we would have been better off with some nice 50 degree weather. I'm not a cold fan. Does nothing for me so this "at least it's cold" stuff doesn't do it. I think some people think If we stay cold we have a shot at snow. But cold is only half the mix. With a -epo +AO +nao neutral Pna pattern we are looking at cold and dry. Pna is helping more now so maybe the chances are going to improve but my gut says we need the nao to help to get a big storm.

I thought about a week ago the PNA was supposed to go strongly positive. Now it seems it will be more neutral like you said, so it will help some, but if we are going to score something decent I think we need it strongly positive if we continue with the AO+ and NAO+. It would be nice to see what would happen if we could at least get the AO and NAO neutral with a big ridge in the west.

[Bob Chill]

I thought about a week ago the PNA was supposed to go strongly positive. Now it seems it will be more neutral like you said, so it will help some, but if we are going to score something decent I think we need it strongly positive if we continue with the AO+ and NAO+. It would be nice to see what would happen if we could at least get the AO and NAO neutral with a big ridge in the west.

Ridge west/trough east is on the ens means for most of next week. Just gotta let it play out. All threats will be medium-short lead kinda stuff.

[psuhoffman]

I thought about a week ago the PNA was supposed to go strongly positive. Now it seems it will be more neutral like you said, so it will help some, but if we are going to score something decent I think we need it strongly positive if we continue with the AO+ and NAO+. It would be nice to see what would happen if we could at least get the AO and NAO neutral with a big ridge in the west.

I think nao is all or nothing. The way that pv is a monster this year if we could get it dislodged the nao would tank fast. Problem is it seems to like its seat over Greenland or Baffin Island.

[HighStakes]

Ridge west/trough east is on the ens means for most of next week. Just gotta let it play out. All threats will be medium-short lead kinda stuff.

Yeah, plus it looks like next week will have some real arctic air in the picture. Maybe I'm reaching a bit but next Monday could have some similarities to last Jan. 21st.

[mdsnowlover]

Ridge west/trough east is on the ens means for most of next week. Just gotta let it play out. All threats will be medium-short lead kinda stuff.

you're betting, again, on a forecast of something to happen, not something already in place, so essentially you're "still waiting or chasing" take you're choice!!

[Bob Chill]

you're betting, again, on a forecast of something to happen, not something already in place, so essentially you're "still waiting or chasing" take you're choice!!

I'm not sure I follow. Technically we are in a ridge west trough east at this very moment so that is real time. But tomorrow is also ridging in the west and troughing in the east. Is that a chase?

[metwannabe]

This winter has been one step forward...3 back. The euro will have the low of the Cuban coast tonight

Or a 976 north of Detroit

[Heisy]

This is kind of banter, but it is so true Ji...Every time we get a good set of model runs, the next runs jump off the cliff and look like crap. 

[Heisy]

GFS looks like it wants to spin something up at 150 hours, but the trough is still a tad too positively tilted, let's see...

[psuhoffman]

I know it has been talked about but the higher resolution of the models today seems to make them more prone to wild swings. I remember the good old days in the 90s at penn state we would watch the runs come in at the weather center and Jon Neese would do analysis and it was just the avn/mrf, nogaps, and euro then the eta and ngm inside 48 hours. Less noise to analyze plus the models had limited accuracy but they seemed to trend more consistently and less jumpy so if you understood their bias they were very useful. I feel almost helpless trying to use the models today compared to 10 years ago.

[AlaskaETC]

I know it has been talked about but the higher resolution of the models today seems to make them more prone to wild swings. I remember the good old days in the 90s at penn state we would watch the runs come in at the weather center and Jon Neese would do analysis and it was just the avn/mrf, nogaps, and euro then the eta and ngm inside 48 hours. Less noise to analyze plus the models had limited accuracy but they seemed to trend more consistently and less jumpy so if you understood their bias they were very useful. I feel almost helpless trying to use the models today compared to 10 years ago.

Interesting insight, definitely seems to be the case.

[Amped]

GFS looks like it wants to spin something up at 150 hours, but the trough is still a tad too positively tilted, let's see...

162 classic miller B CAD signature. All thats missing is the precip.

[Ian]

I'm not sure on the models. They are definitely way better than they used to be and the euro doesn't necessarily always jump around. I do think outside the short range they are mainly good at picking up the big storms earlyish.. Tho they also throw in a lot of pretend big storms. There is too much data overall sometimes. When there were two GFSs you could see the extra possibilities making forecasts even more confusing. Another problem is pretty much every forecaster is a model hugger now.. There's seemingly a lot less individual finesse than there used to be.

[RDM]

I know it has been talked about but the higher resolution of the models today seems to make them more prone to wild swings. I remember the good old days in the 90s at penn state we would watch the runs come in at the weather center and Jon Neese would do analysis and it was just the avn/mrf, nogaps, and euro then the eta and ngm inside 48 hours. Less noise to analyze plus the models had limited accuracy but they seemed to trend more consistently and less jumpy so if you understood their bias they were very useful. I feel almost helpless trying to use the models today compared to 10 years ago.

 

 

  While I'm a weenie wannabe, I've been an avid reader here (and on the previous forum) since 2002.  Reading your comments is reassuring re the lack of confidence in the models these days.  Don't recall a time in recent history when there was so much frustration with the lack of consistency in the models from run to run.  Seems that when things locked in before (be it for snow or no snow), there was far more consensus than what we've seen throughout this year, even amongst the outliers.  The magnitude of the flux from one model run to another this year has got to have those responsible for the models shaking their heads.  Hopefully, this year is just a season of contrasts with variables outside the normal of standard deviation.  If this year continues and we see a similar situation next year re the run to run extremes, have to guess those responsible for the models will be reevaluating things.  What is the long term impact of this years runs on the ensembles?

 

   I am hopeful the pending shakeup in the pattern brings something/anything.  At least having several possibilities to monitor and hope for is better than nothing.  Something has to work out at some point - I hope.

[Bob Chill]

I'm not sure on the models. They are definitely way better than they used to be and the euro doesn't necessarily always jump around. I do think outside the short range they are mainly good at picking up the big storms earlyish.. Tho they also throw in a lot of pretend big storms. There is too much data overall sometimes. When there were two GFSs you could see the extra possibilities making forecasts even more confusing. Another problem is pretty much every forecaster is a model hugger now.. There's seemingly a lot less individual finesse than there used to be.

Agreed. Models have been consistent with longwave features inside of 5-7 days all winter. I think some of the disdain comes from them teasing with greener pastures at longer leads and taking it away. But they have been pretty consistent overall with important things like a +ao/nao since Dec 1st. And that has verified week in week out.

The large scale stable features have been modeled pretty well. But everybody hates them because it's the opposite of good for snow. I perosnally don't see any regression in model skill.

Last year was loaded with long lead relaxations ,that never happened but they aren't remembered because things broke our way. This year is ripe with long lead good looks that aren't happening. Easier to remember long leads when they bust and suck vs the other way around.

[Deck Pic]

when it snows it pours!  EURO

[WEATHER53]

3 threads lighting up at once!

[Bob Chill]

when it snows it pours! EURO

Lol- weenie run of the year

The most "realistic" setup looks prime for now but horseshoe clipper and wtf miller a are stealing the show. If we go 0-3 I'm going to take up curling for excitement in life

[Ginx snewx]

Lol- weenie run of the year

The most "realistic" setup looks prime for now but horseshoe clipper and wtf miller a are stealing the show. If we go 0-3 I'm going to take up curling for excitement in life

lol the bridge jumpers were thrown multiple lifejackets on that run. Holy crap

[PDIII]

Hour 185 on the gfs had the 850 0 degree C line 50 miles south of the gulf coast... Huge ridge out west. The 500 mb plot show almost a closed upper level low over ga. There appears to be a nice blocking feature around greenland. There is a strong northern stream fearure diving south of the plains... The surface reflection does not show much precip... But isn't this like almost an ideal look?

[usedtobe]

when it snows it pours!  EURO

The ensemble analogs have been liking the period so It's not a huge surprise though we still could get screwed on some or all of them though I still think we get at least one hit. 

[HM]

Now we are talking about early February for the mythical pattern change. You can always sense a bad winter when the usually solid prognosticators around here are floundering and left grasping for straws on the extended models.

You're right. Every time the models try to bring on a warm pattern, it gets either reduced, pushed back or taken away.

[HM]

While everyone is in a good mood, I thought I'd drop in and again mention the parallels with 2003 that exist. If we see another PV displacement into Quebec in early Feb as the STJ plows-in, it is going to be a fun climo peak for snow.

[mitchnick]

While everyone is in a good mood, I thought I'd drop in and again mention the parallels with 2003 that exist. If we see another PV displacement into Quebec in early Feb as the STJ plows-in, it is going to be a fun climo peak for snow.

you stop by whenever you want man

[usedtobe]

Agreed. Models have been consistent with longwave features inside of 5-7 days all winter. I think some of the disdain comes from them teasing with greener pastures at longer leads and taking it away. But they have been pretty consistent overall with important things like a +ao/nao since Dec 1st. And that has verified week in week out.

The large scale stable features have been modeled pretty well. But everybody hates them because it's the opposite of good for snow. I perosnally don't see any regression in model skill.

Last year was loaded with long lead relaxations ,that never happened but they aren't remembered because things broke our way. This year is ripe with long lead good looks that aren't happening. Easier to remember long leads when they bust and suck vs the other way around.

YOu can look at the statistics and see that the models continue to improve.  The various centers like ECMWF and NCEP do lots of testing before implementing new versions of the models.   If hte model is inferior they are not going to implement it.  The idea that he models are worse because of higher resolution is the same type of anecdotal  claims as vaccinations cause autism.  There is no evidence to back it up. The big reason models jump around is because of chaos.  

[HM]

The ensemble analogs have been liking the period so It's not a huge surprise though we still could get screwed on some or all of them though I still think we get at least one hit.

You are correct. For a while now, Feb 96', Feb 03', Feb 06' and Feb 94' have popped-up on the analog lists. But, we've seen some signaling from Jan 76' and 09'. These Ninas, while cold, didn't quite produce any big storms.

After the next 10 day period, we wait and see if we can get 1 more PV knock-down into Quebec. If so, we'll keep the favorable pattern going.

[Bob Chill]

You are correct. For a while now, Feb 96', Feb 03', Feb 06' and Feb 94' have popped-up on the analog lists. But, we've seen some signaling from Jan 76' and 09'. These Ninas, while cold, didn't quite produce any big storms.

After the next 10 day period, we wait and see if we can get 1 more PV knock-down into Quebec. If so, we'll keep the favorable pattern going.

HM, looks like models have locked into the strat pv migrating to Siberia and warming at all levels over yukon/greeland during the next 10 days. What affect can this have irt the ao/nao? I know the connection isn't direct so there are no sure things but it's a different look than I've seen since I started paying attention to the strat.