Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Getting suckered by the Euro again? Ha! Well, I can understand the skepticism but I'll admit I'm getting kind of pulled back in. Yep. Except instead of 10 days out it is less than 5. 12z Friday it is on the gulf coast. Sat 12z just off the S.. Carolina/N. Carolina coast. And it's strong. yea, and the cmc and navgem and dgex. GFS will be there in a couple days. There's definitely enough support to start raising the eyebrows a bit, after essentially hitting the snooze button the past few days. Not to say we won't hit the snooze again by tomorrow or so (but hope not!). Funny you mention the GFS will "be there in a couple of days". I know that's probably a bit tongue-in-cheek, but an element of truth as well. For the Thanksgiving event, the then-parallel GFS I recall was the last one to the party. Every major global model including the then-operational GFS had it a fair bit earlier than the parallel, and it was getting into the shorter range. Once it did catch on, it handled it well I think. Now, that's *one* event, and it may not be representative of how it would handle others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 how does the positioning of the low at 12z compare with its location on 0z? at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 WxBell just added UKIE to their models, FYI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I like the EURO hr 162-198. What's happening there? Why such light precip over a long period of time? Remember when it did that a few weeks ago? More pieces of energy floating around than would actually happen. As time moves forward it will likely look much clearer than a mashed up drawn out event. The reality will more than likely end up as 1 or 2 discrete events (or non-events depending on how things go and how you look at it). The h5 setup is similar to the gfs. Nice ridge west/trough east. We'll have to watch the NS as we get much closer in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Ukie looked ok too but not sure about details. The problem I see is it's not a very good pattern for a big storm. There is low pressure to the north where we need high pressure. Heights leading in are suppressive so it's going to be a late bloomer up the coast. It's dynamically driven with nothing to phase with so precip shield is going to be packed tight to the lp center. This is what poured cold water on it for me after the initial excitement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 This is what poured cold water on it for me after the initial excitement. With nothing to phase with in the northern stream, it would have to bomb early and take the perfect track for us. There's not going to be some broad precip field to the n-w of the lp center. All we can do is watch it. If it did snow in MD, it would definitely favor Wes and east and not Mt. Parktonchesterminster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Wow, it's pretty crazy how similar the gfs/euro/cmc ops look @ h5 for the sat-mon timeframe. Get a nice vort digging down into that trough and it would be the largest potential storm area wise this entire winter. It's very rare for 3 ops to look so close @ 7 day leads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Well, there's always time for a sneaky s/w to show up. I remember 3 days ago, the GFS just popped up with the northern stream vort for the clipper. And it is kinda remarkable how the cmc/euro even had the same pressure reading for the weekend storm thingy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Be interesting to see ensembles for Euro...wonder if shift west because last night I think nothing for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Be interesting to see ensembles for Euro...wonder if shift west because last night I think nothing for us I posted in the DT thread. Big shift but still lots of spread. Early next week has a nice storm signal too. Mon-Tues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I posted in the DT thread. Big shift but still lots of spread. Early next week has a nice storm signal too. Mon-Tues. [/quote RGR. Asked about any SECS type hits for weekend. 12z could have been a blip I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I posted in the DT thread. Big shift but still lots of spread. Early next week has a nice storm signal too. Mon-Tues. How has the gfs been verifying compared to euro day 7-14? Gfs wants to develop a really nice nao pattern week 2. Euro wants no part and says pv will park over Greenland and it ain't moving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 How has the gfs been verifying compared to euro day 7-14? Gfs wants to develop a really nice nao pattern week 2. Euro wants no part and says pv will park over Greenland and it ain't moving. Lately the gfs has done better for d11-15 when picking up on regime changes or cold shots. Seems to sniff them out first but neither has done well this winter as whole. A lot of false signals (good and bad) in the d10+ range. ETA: I thought you were asking about the GEFS. GFS op has been a wild horse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2015 Author Share Posted January 19, 2015 Wow, it's pretty crazy how similar the gfs/euro/cmc ops look @ h5 for the sat-mon timeframe. Get a nice vort digging down into that trough and it would be the largest potential storm area wise this entire winter. It's very rare for 3 ops to look so close @ 7 day leads. The GEM looks the best to me. I d love to see all of them further west with that trough axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I am heading out of town at the time that things look the best for snow! Sad but true! SO I am sure it will happen! And I will be back when it warms up! =) Seriously, looks very good. A sneaky system could easily pop! I would not dismiss any wave that dives in that pattern.. we have seen good looks and models did not get the wave that was going to be the storm right on the models.. YES, I am thinking of Jan 25, 2000... the pattern was ripe and it looked like some other storm would be the big one and then that low went negative down south and boom! ETA: OBVIOUSLY SO MUCH DIFFERENT going on for this one! I am not suggesting it! It just looks good for a low.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Lately the gfs has done better for d11-15 when picking up on regime changes or cold shots. Seems to sniff them out first but neither has done well this winter as whole. A lot of false signals (good and bad) in the d10+ range. ETA: I thought you were asking about the GEFS. GFS op has been a wild horse. just saw gefs. Wish I hadn't. They look more like euro, raging pos nao straight through. What's it going to take to get the pv out if there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 just saw gefs. Wish I hadn't. They look more like euro, raging pos nao straight through. What's it going to take to get the pv out if there? I'm not feeling it leaving this year to be honest. It's stuck. We had a minor ssw and temporary strat split but it re-consolidated. Strat pv is getting pushed around the next 2 weeks but nothing seems to have any lasting effect in the nao region. Seems the base state this winter is +ao/nao combo and nothing seems to work against it. I gave up on it when the most recent -ao/-nao signal has faded. Believe it when I see it. At least the next 2 weeks seem by far to be the best chance for snow around here so far this year. Flaws and all. Chasing the perfect pattern is futile. I'll just drink lemonade and enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I'm not feeling it leaving this year to be honest. It's stuck. We had a minor ssw and temporary strat split but it re-consolidated. Strat pv is getting pushed around the next 2 weeks but nothing seems to have any lasting effect in the nao region. Seems the base state this winter is +ao/nao combo and nothing seems to work against it. I gave up on it when the most recent -ao/-nao signal has faded. Believe it when I see it. At least the next 2 weeks seem by far to be the best chance for snow around here so far this year. Flaws and all. Chasing the perfect pattern is futile. I'll just drink lemonade and enjoy it. Nothing really changes for us who have the disease. I will look at every model run every day and stay up for the euro every night. No matter what the pattern is like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 EPS also seems supportive of the clipper next Monday. Looks like the mean tracks the surface low over us or maybe just to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 No matter what the weekend storm does, it looks too warm.......once again, cold/dry or warm/rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 This winter has been one step forward...3 back. The euro will have the low of the Cuban coast tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Now we are talking about early February for the mythical pattern change. You can always sense a bad winter when the usually solid prognosticators around here are floundering and left grasping for straws on the extended models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Now we are talking about early February for the mythical pattern change. You can always sense a bad winter when the usually solid prognosticators around here are floundering and left grasping for straws on the extended models. can always tell a bad winter mets talking about " clipper vortex max over top of us" instead of real storm!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Now we are talking about early February for the mythical pattern change. You can always sense a bad winter when the usually solid prognosticators around here are floundering and left grasping for straws on the extended models. Only people who aren't satisfied unless they're chasing a Miller A MECS/HECS under a blocked pattern are punting until early February. Everybody else is just following the opportunities from this Wednesday through next Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I'm not feeling it leaving this year to be honest. It's stuck. We had a minor ssw and temporary strat split but it re-consolidated. Strat pv is getting pushed around the next 2 weeks but nothing seems to have any lasting effect in the nao region. Seems the base state this winter is +ao/nao combo and nothing seems to work against it. I gave up on it when the most recent -ao/-nao signal has faded. Believe it when I see it. At least the next 2 weeks seem by far to be the best chance for snow around here so far this year. Flaws and all. Chasing the perfect pattern is futile. I'll just drink lemonade and enjoy it. I don't disagree but I'm not sure if we want a real snowy period or more then just lucking our way into a small event that we can do it without any nao help. Some patterns can work out without the nao but seems this year isn't one. Maybe if the jet slowed down and the trough was broader and we got some AO love. But getting all that is prob less likely then the nao flipping. I've also noticed something the last few weeks. When we get a run on pretty much any model that shows good snow it's because the nao goes neg on that run. Then when the -nao disappears the following run so does the storm. The nao seems to be the missing link right now. We are so close to a great pattern just need that one piece to flip. Without it I'm not sure we can get more then clippers or luck our way into a moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 take it FWIW, but CPC has some pretty nice looking analogues for snow lowers, Jan 96, Feb 03, Feb 06.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Only people who aren't satisfied unless they're chasing a Miller A MECS/HECS under a blocked pattern are punting until early February. Everybody else is just following the opportunities from this Wednesday through next Wednesday. Especially considering this week was supposed to be a significant thaw. A week ago we thought no snow was possible this week. We may not be in a deep freeze this week but we are a far cry from a week with highs in the 50's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Now we are talking about early February for the mythical pattern change. You can always sense a bad winter when the usually solid prognosticators around here are floundering and left grasping for straws on the extended models. I'm not sure what you're interpreting, but I'm pretty excited for the next week at least. Looks like we have 3 legit threats from Wednesday through next Monday/Tuesday. And the pattern after those 3 threats seems like it will continue to be favorable for chances. We have a good pattern now for small to moderate sized events. I'm not waiting for some Feb 2010 like pattern to appear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Especially considering this week was supposed to be a significant thaw. A week ago we thought no snow was possible this week. We may not be in a deep freeze this week but we are a far cry from a week with highs in the 50's. let's see if that is a good thing. If we get through the week without any significant snow I would argue we would have been better off with some nice 50 degree weather. I'm not a cold fan. Does nothing for me so this "at least it's cold" stuff doesn't do it. I think some people think If we stay cold we have a shot at snow. But cold is only half the mix. With a -epo +AO +nao neutral Pna pattern we are looking at cold and dry. Pna is helping more now so maybe the chances are going to improve but my gut says we need the nao to help to get a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I'm not sure what you're interpreting, but I'm pretty excited for the next week at least. Looks like we have 3 legit threats from Wednesday through next Monday/Tuesday. And the pattern after those 3 threats seems like it will continue to be favorable for chances. We have a good pattern now for small to moderate sized events. I'm not waiting for some Feb 2010 like pattern to appear. I hear you, but weren't we tracking the last few weeks as "exciting" for various events? They either fizzled or were rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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