Ji Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 the SOI is -43...usually that coincides with the awakening of the southern branch. Then you look at GFS in 2 weeks and it has the winter storm of the century. https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 the SOI is -43...usually that coincides with the awakening of the southern branch. Then you look at GFS in 2 weeks and it has the winter storm of the century. https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/ not surprised at all. JB in his sunday briefing talks about a triple phaser, similar to 93 and shows the euro to prove his thesis, only it occurs inside 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 What is the SOI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 What is the SOI? Southern Oscillation Index. It's another tool we will all use to get wrong forecasts. http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/catalog/climind/soi.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Southern Oscillation Index. It's another tool we will all use to get wrong forecasts. Lol, Thanks. http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/catalog/climind/soi.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 not surprised at all. JB in his sunday briefing talks about a triple phaser, similar to 93 and shows the euro to prove his thesis, only it occurs inside 2 weeks. We can't get the models to figure out what's going to happen with the clipper on Wednesday. Now we're banking on JB's theory for 2 weeks out? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 We can't get the models to figure out what's going to happen with the clipper on Wednesday. Now we're banking on JB's theory for 2 weeks out? No. no, we're not "barking" what jb saying. thought it was kinda interesting,if you don't like it , ignore my post!! what, afraid he might be right, oh my!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 no, were not "barking" what jb saying. thought it was kinda interesting,if you don't like it , ignore my post!! Ha. No, I like it but it's typical JB isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Ha. No, I like it but it's typical JB isn't it? yes, he does "bark" a lot, he tries, he's human!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 It looks like the GFS is trying to spawn up a Miller B at 144 hours, 500mb looks pretty damn good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 It looks like the GFS is trying to spawn up a Miller B at 144 hours, 500mb looks pretty damn good to me. GFS politely declines said Miller B through 165 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 There's really not much to discuss. The pattern will be northern stream dominated for a while with fast flow and no blocking. Ridging over the w conus should deliver cold shots with vorts embedded in the flow Each vort will have to be looked at independently. Who knows when they will approach and how they will or won't affect us. Right now the clipper is the only thing of interest that can be discussed. The coming weekend offers the next chance as HB just stated. Euro has some energy with a decent pass as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 It looks like the GFS is trying to spawn up a Miller B at 144 hours, 500mb looks pretty damn good to me. its close to something at 171, but its not gonna cut it. I like that h5 look this far out. At 174, its trying tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 GFS politely declines said Miller B through 165 Until 18z. There's no way to know whether a pos tilt vort with suppression from above is anything more than a dart or is meaningful. I'll go with the former. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 It looks like the GFS is trying to spawn up a Miller B at 144 hours, 500mb looks pretty damn good to me.These are the kind of setups that are perfect for imaginary snow on the euro. Today's 12z will close off H5 over Nc and give everyone from Raleigh to Philly 15+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 its close to something at 171, but its not gonna cut it. I like that h5 look this far out. At 174, its trying tho It's a time frame that looks interesting. We don't want the GFS to have a hit at 171 hours. We want it to zero in at 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 It's a time frame that looks interesting. We don't want the GFS to have a hit at 171 hours. We want it to zero in at 72 hours. Yup, this is what I've been saying all along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 GFS says no coastal this winter, go figure we need to try to find a way to get a standard west to east based system or one that organizes over the tennessee valley/kentucky area before crossing the apps. relying on clippers is not ideal for this area unless they dig far enough south. we still have time to shake what seems to be a cold/dry, warm/wet pattern, but not THAT much time. hopefully we start seeing some changes in the next week or two. it doesn't even look like we're gonna end up with a january thaw, which is frustrating for someone like me who doesn't particularly enjoy the cold if we don't get a proportional amount of snow. this winter has mostly been chilly and absent of any major snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Can someone with meteorological experience explain hr 120 on 12ZEuro. Looks interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 not surprised at all. JB in his sunday briefing talks about a triple phaser, similar to 93 and shows the euro to prove his thesis, only it occurs inside 2 weeks.Jb pulls 93 out every year. I guess every year there is some new reader to salivate over his grand planetary wave nonsense. Getting the 3 branches lined up isn't that significant in itself. What made 93 rare was getting the polar jet to crash in and phase all 3 branches into a monster storm. Yet every time there is even a remote 1/1000 chance because the branches are lined up he cries wolf. I suppose eventually it will happen again and he can claim he nailed it first. Good for him. Can't wait for a year where he doesn't use 93 96 03 or 10 as an analog. Now that would be a rare event worthy if headlines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Just looking at the h5 loop on the gfs I kept thinking how close that storm day 7 was to going nuts. If the vort diving down from mn is either not there (it's acting as a kicker) or faster (to phase in) that could become something. It's worth tracking. After that I like the early feb period. I know its way out in fiction land but I just have a gut feeling that's when we score. It's a good climo week for us and that pv has to dislodge eventually and when it does I think we finally get a nice storm. Plus ji had a good poking with the soi. I'm putting my chips in for early feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Euro is close...strong storm of sc coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Euro is close...strong storm of sc coastIt might be a mix of 1993, 1996,and 2003 with a pinch of 1888. In seriousness it's very close! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Getting suckered by the Euro again? Yep. Except instead of 10 days out it is less than 5. 12z Friday it is on the gulf coast. Sat 12z just off the S.. Carolina/N. Carolina coast. And it's strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Getting suckered by the Euro again? yea, and the cmc and navgem and dgex. GFS will be there in a couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Jb pulls 93 out every year. I guess every year there is some new reader to salivate over his grand planetary wave nonsense. Getting the 3 branches lined up isn't that significant in itself. What made 93 rare was getting the polar jet to crash in and phase all 3 branches into a monster storm. Yet every time there is even a remote 1/1000 chance because the branches are lined up he cries wolf. I suppose eventually it will happen again and he can claim he nailed it first. Good for him. Can't wait for a year where he doesn't use 93 96 03 or 10 as an analog. Now that would be a rare event worthy if headlines. LMAO!! This is so true. I mean, I guess it's worth pointing out the possibility of the phasing if it's a realistic chance, but mentioning well-known big events in the same breath is kind of dishonest. I wonder how many hits he gets just by writing "1993!!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Regardless of euro the h5 loops of the last few gfs runs have me more excited heading towards feb. Haven't seen this in a while. Darn pv finally seems ready to get out of Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I remember a year where he didn't use 2010. Oh wait a minute, it was 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I like the EURO hr 162-198. What's happening there? Why such light precip over a long period of time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 my mistake. I forgot about those stalwarts. Ukie looked ok too but not sure about details. The problem I see is it's not a very good pattern for a big storm. There is low pressure to the north where we need high pressure. Heights leading in are suppressive so it's going to be a late bloomer up the coast. It's dynamically driven with nothing to phase with so precip shield is going to be packed tight to the lp center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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