stormtracker Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Still not a bad vort pass.. gets us with some greens. Temps are marginal. Sounds sort of like the GGEM. Both models seemed to have dialed it down, but still gets some precip in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Need to wait for hi res but looks like .1-.2 DC into N MD, most in northern md into DE. Looks pretty good for a clipper.. not sure I'd b e too hung up on the temps right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 looks to be transferring energy at 72 hrs to new Low http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=2&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Need to wait for hi res but looks like .1-.2 DC into N MD, most in northern md into DE. Looks pretty good for a clipper.. not sure I'd b e too hung up on the temps right now. Would like a tick further south with the vort pass but as you said, run was ok for a clipper. Looks like we get a decent cold feed at the surface between 18-0z. 1028hp in se Canada and 1010lp off the coast. At least there's a cold air source. 18z temps look pretty lousy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Would like a tick further south with the vort pass but as you said, run was ok for a clipper. Looks like we get a decent cold feed at the surface between 18-0z. 1028hp in se Canada and 1010lp off the coast. At least there's a cold air source. 18z temps look pretty lousy There's actually been fairly decent consistency on the vort either hitting us head on or tucking under us. Some off runs of course in there too. Lots of time for shifts. NAO isn't really hostile so I don't think we can assume it will go north from here in though. I'd start a thread but I already failed once. edit: also tho it's 0z and you cool by then anyway I think there's the suggestion the sfc cools pretty rapidly with the better rates as you'd expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Hi res looks about as expected looking at 6 hr panels. Stripe of ~.2 across N MD, .1 a bit south of DC. Been a while since a N MD special.. I feel for those guys, they deserve it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 There's actually been fairly decent consistency on the vort either hitting us head on or tucking under us. Some off runs of course in there too. Lots of time for shifts. NAO isn't really hostile so I don't think we can assume it will go north from here in though. I'd start a thread but I already failed once. edit: also tho it's 0z and you cool by then anyway I think there's the suggestion the sfc cools pretty rapidly with the better rates as you'd expect. I wouldn't start a thread until tomorrow. With marginal surface and bad time of day, a thread is ripe for becoming a dumpster fir. This is not nearly as easy as the last one when all we cared about was how much precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Hi res looks about as expected looking at 6 hr panels. Stripe of ~.2 across N MD, .1 a bit south of DC. Been a while since a N MD special.. I feel for those guys, they deserve it. Thank you for the kind words and thoughts. We northerners appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Thank you for the kind words and thoughts. We northerners appreciate it. Imagine if this became known as the winter DC jack-potted on 5 clippers and there was no other snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Imagine if this became known as the winter DC jack-potted on 5 clippers and there was no other snow. Off to a good start. Euro tees up another one on sunday. Good temps and decent vort pass. Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Wow, the euro should looks cold for the latter part of its run once we get the low that goes to our north. Even if my outlook fails for snow, looks like it might hit with an arctic shot providing the euro is right which is still a big if. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Since there are so many clippers coming, we should name them. First up on Jan 21, Austin Rivers.. It's pretty small and likely to disappoint. Let's hope the Euro can deliver us Blake Griffin on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Wow, the euro should looks cold for the latter part of its run once we get the low that goes to our north. Even if my outlook fails for snow, looks like it might hit with an arctic shot providing the euro is right which is still a big if. That is an incredible phase! The problem for bigger storm prospects is that the southern slider prior takes baroclinic zone away and the PV has nothing to phase into, southern stream-wise. That's too bad because it's awesome. What it may do is bring us, yet, another 50-50 low chance and possibly a very active early Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 That is an incredible phase! The problem for bigger storm prospects is that the southern slider prior takes baroclinic zone away and the PV has nothing to phase into, southern stream-wise. That's too bad because it's awesome. What it may do is bring us, yet, another 50-50 low chance and possibly a very active early Feb. It probably won't verify but I think does say something about the patterns potential fro cold down the line and if it is close to being right (still low probability), it would give us a 50 50 low chance. Heck, I'd just like to see the Wed clipper a little colder and wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Terrible run No snow for Leesburg verbatim? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 With the new GFS throwing darts, I am riding the Euro. Whatever "slump" it was in is over. Epic Feb incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Hi res looks about as expected looking at 6 hr panels. Stripe of ~.2 across N MD, .1 a bit south of DC. Been a while since a N MD special.. I feel for those guys, they deserve it.That's ok you can have clipper fest. I'll take a 25" wet snow bomb in late feb or march. Looking at coop records for northern Carroll county locations we used to get those regularly. Most of this areas biggest storms are actually after feb 20. It's been a while. A ton were pre 1970. Iike 10 from 1930-1970 and only a couple since. We are due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Euro ens targets dc to Balt for max qpf from clipper. Prob about .15 if you add up the panels but it's an ensemble so it smoothes out things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 192 hrs is an apps runner but it somehow keeps 850mb below freezing. Doubt it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 FWIW, three straight GFS/GEFS runs bombing the PV in the long range, looks like a major SSW. Unfortunately, EPS hasn't quite come around to this idea (yet). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 192 hrs is an apps runner but it somehow keeps 850mb below freezing. Doubt it verifies.I doubt it's an apps runner. The ensemble is hinting at a transfer that hour so the combo of low pressure west and east if the mts looks that way in the means. That's how I read it. Euro ens imply there have to be some better miller b solutions in there from the looking the slp. Very broad area off the mid atl coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 FWIW, three straight GFS/GEFS runs bombing the PV in the long range, looks like a major SSW. Unfortunately, EPS hasn't quite come around to this idea (yet). euro ensembles have a big spread and look a little different from op run for the long range. Anything is possible that far out. Models can't get yesterday right in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I cant post the maps but the eps h5 implies a much further south amplification then the op run. Greatest h5 anomalies are centered over tn. Edit: talking about the day 8 threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2015 Author Share Posted January 19, 2015 Gfs ens for late week puts anything on the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Decent 500 mb setup for January 26 on the GFS. Needs some work, but there is some nice vort energy passing through south of us. Definitely seems like that's the period to watch for something more than the light dustings/sprinkles from clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Man, this medium range thread has turned into a complete dead zone. I know many are discussing the possible Clipper in the other one, but still. Guess it speaks to the dearth of anything much on the horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Pretty decent arctic shot Day 8... and thats about it on tonights EURO run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Man, this medium range thread has turned into a complete dead zone. I know many are discussing the possible Clipper in the other one, but still. Guess it speaks to the dearth of anything much on the horizon. Probably because this thread has become almost exclusively a model discussion thread. Becomes a bore and futile dissecting each model run as there has been little continuity. Long range pattern chasing sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Euro ensembles all over the place Day 7 to 9 in regards to coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Close enough at this range. Move this baby south and we're in business. got you're wish, suppressed on 06z run, not even close now!! nothing new here.Although , the shift south could coincide with a big storm, which is what JB, in his sunday briefing, is hinting at, and euro seems to be pointing to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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