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January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2


WinterWxLuvr

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Slp track is overhead and off the coast on the run. Shift slp just 75 miles south and problem mostly solved. I liked the trend for more upper level energy. The optimist in me thinks the euro rapid development and optimal lp track is within reason.

Euro ensembles are spread wide still and we're approaching short leads. Crazy.

It's a bit disconcerting to see that none of our models are really that gung ho about the clipper tbh. 

 

I think the Euro rapid development scenario is probably long odds.

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It's a bit disconcerting to see that none of our models are really that gung ho about the clipper tbh. 

 

I think the Euro rapid development scenario is probably long odds.

That's probably right though the GFS trended towards it and its own ensemble mean was more like it than the GFS albeit a little warmer than the operational and as Bob noted there was lots of spread so all you really can say is there is a chance of rain or snow though rain is probalby the more likely result unless the low really develops rapdily ad tracks to our south.

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It's a bit disconcerting to see that none of our models are really that gung ho about the clipper tbh. 

 

I think the Euro rapid development scenario is probably long odds.

IIRC, the new GFS did pretty well with out clipper 2 weeks ago and the Euro didn't.  But, I'm hugging the Euro for now.  Of course, NAM was king for that event. 

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IIRC, the new GFS did pretty well with out clipper 2 weeks ago and the Euro didn't. But, I'm hugging the Euro for now. Of course, NAM was king for that event.

Off and on. It had it early then lost it I think. It was solid in the final stretch. The night before it was about perfect.
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GFS has a thoroughly unrealistic Miller B at 210 - but I still think the period between Fri to Tue could see some sort of something.

 

I was just looking at that.  Looks almost similar to this upcoming week's Clipper but it goes farther underneath us at h5.  And it develops a bit too far offshore.  Not that details matter at 200 hours out, but just saying.

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GGEM gets close again for late week...lot of moisture off the SE coast, but it just slides out to sea.   And of course, that F%^$#@ great lake low

I hear the lamenting the GL Low quite a bit. For a dummy like myself, what effect does that feature have on our snowstorm chances? Sort of understand it messes with our temps, just trying to understand why. Thanks!

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I hear the lamenting the GL Low quite a bit. For a dummy like myself, what effect does that feature have on our snowstorm chances? Sort of understand it messes with our temps, just trying to understand why. Thanks!

 

Basically, a GL low results in more southerly flow here, so even if there's a re-developing system near/off the coast, we can't typically get cold air to funnel in here.  Unless there's a big high to our north with very cold antecedent air, and if the secondary development really takes over and blows up far enough south (i.e., the few situations when we can luck out on a Miller-B situation).  This is also why we can tend to get dry-slotted while areas north of us can cash in much better:  development of a secondary happens too late for our latitude by the time the cold air does get here.

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I hear the lamenting the GL Low quite a bit. For a dummy like myself, what effect does that feature have on our snowstorm chances? Sort of understand it messes with our temps, just trying to understand why. Thanks!

You generally want the surface pressure higher over the Great Lakes region than over us or Maine because air moves from ares of high pressure to lower pressure.  Also since air flows around lows in a counterclockwise fashion.  Essentially, the low pressure in the great lakes usually means that at some level we'll either have a southerly or easterly component to the winds.  A southerly wind brings warm air from the south and an easterly one brings warm air off the ocean which is a big heat repository.

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If the Euro comes in decent somebody should probably start a thread for the systems this week.

It's probably overdone but the GFS isn't super different at 500. You can prep the thread as the Euro starts to run.

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GGEM gets close again for late week...lot of moisture off the SE coast, but it just slides out to sea.   And of course, that F%^$#@ great lake low

lol. I suppose with a +NAO we are always going to be dealing with the tendency for lower pressure around the GL. We had it a lot last winter but scored quite often in spite of it.

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There is something funky about the way the GFS is jumping the low around with the clipper. It looks like it is going to track well north of the area then jumps s/w to basically overhead. 

one thing my weenie heart is holding onto is how the Euro stuck strong with today's rain after GFS, NAM and Canadian all abandoned the idea, pushing things to the east of I95

here's hoping the Euro is king again and the king is on our side   :weenie:

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There is something funky about the way the GFS is jumping the low around with the clipper. It looks like it is going to track well north of the area then jumps s/w to basically overhead. 

 

 

There are atmospheric spin arguments that argue for a low to take a slight northward jog as it approaches the mountains and then a southward jog to the lee of the mountains.  That probably is part of the reason for the southward jump. 

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