stormtracker Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Took a step back wrt the end of week system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Slp track is overhead and off the coast on the run. Shift slp just 75 miles south and problem mostly solved. I liked the trend for more upper level energy. The optimist in me thinks the euro rapid development and optimal lp track is within reason. Euro ensembles are spread wide still and we're approaching short leads. Crazy. It's a bit disconcerting to see that none of our models are really that gung ho about the clipper tbh. I think the Euro rapid development scenario is probably long odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I wasn't really invested in snow - but after DT's thread - now I am rooting like holy hell for two massive storms. Team Wes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 It's a bit disconcerting to see that none of our models are really that gung ho about the clipper tbh. I think the Euro rapid development scenario is probably long odds. That's probably right though the GFS trended towards it and its own ensemble mean was more like it than the GFS albeit a little warmer than the operational and as Bob noted there was lots of spread so all you really can say is there is a chance of rain or snow though rain is probalby the more likely result unless the low really develops rapdily ad tracks to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 It's a bit disconcerting to see that none of our models are really that gung ho about the clipper tbh. I think the Euro rapid development scenario is probably long odds. IIRC, the new GFS did pretty well with out clipper 2 weeks ago and the Euro didn't. But, I'm hugging the Euro for now. Of course, NAM was king for that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 IIRC, the new GFS did pretty well with out clipper 2 weeks ago and the Euro didn't. But, I'm hugging the Euro for now. Of course, NAM was king for that event.Off and on. It had it early then lost it I think. It was solid in the final stretch. The night before it was about perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I know there's still time to trend in our favor for the clipper, but I really don't like the sfc. Upper-30s aren't going to cut it. Verbatim, the 12z GFS would be non-accumulating snow, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I know there's still time to trend in our favor for the clipper, but I really don't like the sfc. Upper-30s aren't going to cut it. Verbatim, the 12z GFS would be non-accumulating snow, correct? or even rain, We'd have to see how deep the cold air is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 GGEM looks solid for the clipper going off the black and white charts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 If the Euro comes in decent somebody should probably start a thread for the systems this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 GGEM looks solid for the clipper going off the black and white charts It's backed off though from the heavy amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 GFS has a thoroughly unrealistic Miller B at 210 - but I still think the period between Fri to Tue could see some sort of something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 GGEM gets close again for late week...lot of moisture off the SE coast, but it just slides out to sea. And of course, that F%^$#@ great lake low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 GGEM looks solid for the clipper going off the black and white charts It sucks. Rain. and light rain at that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 GFS has a thoroughly unrealistic Miller B at 210 - but I still think the period between Fri to Tue could see some sort of something. I was just looking at that. Looks almost similar to this upcoming week's Clipper but it goes farther underneath us at h5. And it develops a bit too far offshore. Not that details matter at 200 hours out, but just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 GGEM gets close again for late week...lot of moisture off the SE coast, but it just slides out to sea. And of course, that F%^$#@ great lake low I hear the lamenting the GL Low quite a bit. For a dummy like myself, what effect does that feature have on our snowstorm chances? Sort of understand it messes with our temps, just trying to understand why. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Messes up a chance to get cold air in here ( or enough cold air to matter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I hear the lamenting the GL Low quite a bit. For a dummy like myself, what effect does that feature have on our snowstorm chances? Sort of understand it messes with our temps, just trying to understand why. Thanks! Basically, a GL low results in more southerly flow here, so even if there's a re-developing system near/off the coast, we can't typically get cold air to funnel in here. Unless there's a big high to our north with very cold antecedent air, and if the secondary development really takes over and blows up far enough south (i.e., the few situations when we can luck out on a Miller-B situation). This is also why we can tend to get dry-slotted while areas north of us can cash in much better: development of a secondary happens too late for our latitude by the time the cold air does get here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 There is something funky about the way the GFS is jumping the low around with the clipper. It looks like it is going to track well north of the area then jumps s/w to basically overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I hear the lamenting the GL Low quite a bit. For a dummy like myself, what effect does that feature have on our snowstorm chances? Sort of understand it messes with our temps, just trying to understand why. Thanks! You generally want the surface pressure higher over the Great Lakes region than over us or Maine because air moves from ares of high pressure to lower pressure. Also since air flows around lows in a counterclockwise fashion. Essentially, the low pressure in the great lakes usually means that at some level we'll either have a southerly or easterly component to the winds. A southerly wind brings warm air from the south and an easterly one brings warm air off the ocean which is a big heat repository. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 If the Euro comes in decent somebody should probably start a thread for the systems this week. It's probably overdone but the GFS isn't super different at 500. You can prep the thread as the Euro starts to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 GGEM gets close again for late week...lot of moisture off the SE coast, but it just slides out to sea. And of course, that F%^$#@ great lake low lol. I suppose with a +NAO we are always going to be dealing with the tendency for lower pressure around the GL. We had it a lot last winter but scored quite often in spite of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 It's probably overdone but the GFS isn't super different at 500. You can prep the thread as the Euro starts to run. Not me...no way. If this long range fails, I'm out on starting those too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 There is something funky about the way the GFS is jumping the low around with the clipper. It looks like it is going to track well north of the area then jumps s/w to basically overhead. one thing my weenie heart is holding onto is how the Euro stuck strong with today's rain after GFS, NAM and Canadian all abandoned the idea, pushing things to the east of I95 here's hoping the Euro is king again and the king is on our side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 There is something funky about the way the GFS is jumping the low around with the clipper. It looks like it is going to track well north of the area then jumps s/w to basically overhead. There are atmospheric spin arguments that argue for a low to take a slight northward jog as it approaches the mountains and then a southward jog to the lee of the mountains. That probably is part of the reason for the southward jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 There are atmospheric spin arguments that argue for a low to take a slight northward jog as it approaches the mountains and then a southward jog to the lee of the mountains. That probably is part of the reason for the southward jump. That is interesting. Thanks for the info! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I can start the event thread for 1/21 if you guys would like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I can start the event thread for 1/21 if you guys would like. Just remember you might be banished if it fails. The clipper is clipping at 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Definitely not digging as much thru 6z Wed.. doubtful it's going to 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Still not a bad vort pass.. gets us with some greens. Temps are marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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