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January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2


WinterWxLuvr

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This is the Wednesday deal, right? Clipper comes down, models start digging that baby south...I might be in.

It's pretty sketchy still. Very small precip max. Small shift brings tears. 12z euro ens improved but still fairly weak support for an event.

The 0z op suite looked pretty good. Gefs is mixed. Safe to say our chances improved but we'll have to sweat it out for a few days

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It's pretty sketchy still. Very small precip max. Small shift brings tears. 12z euro ens improved but still fairly weak support for an event.

The 0z op suite looked pretty good. Gefs is mixed. Safe to say our chances improved but we'll have to sweat it out for a few days

 

I would not worry too much down there, PHL and north I would...I think this thing is going to dig, what I don't know is how much it turns the corner after it does...alot depends on that vort immediately behind it and a lobe of energy pushing through SE Canada, the Euro has that lobe badly timed so that this just goes right offshore instead of turning up towards Cape Cod.

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Ji I agree, I'm surprised there hasn't been more discussion on this....Can someone explain to my the science behind how an upgrade could make a model worst? I guess statistically I can't prove it, but just looking at it all season it changes run to run and just hasn't been very good or consistent. 

 

There is a couple big hitters on the 6z GFS ensembles for the clipper. I'm actually feeling this one big time. 

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9z SREF came in more amped for the clipper, out of its range, but first of the midday suite

It's funny how we all feel the need to make qualifying statements when we post stuff as just an observation during the slow times. We have all done it. Between runs out of boredom peeked at some obscure or out of range model. No shame in the observation or the statement of fact, it's up to the reader to determine how much weight to give it. But we act like the Spanish Inquisition might show up if not stated correctly.
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It's funny how we all feel the need to make qualifying statements when we post stuff as just an observation during the slow times. We have all done it. Between runs out of boredom peeked at some obscure or out of range model. No shame in the observation or the statement of fact, it's up to the reader to determine how much weight to give it. But we act like the Spanish Inquisition might show up if not stated correctly.

 

Ha!  So true, I guess that's the nature of the beast of forecasting and science in general.  Perhaps especially with respect to weather forecasting.

 

I'm not speaking for everyone, and my comment may not be totally accurate, so take with the proverbial grain of salt (take that, Spanish Inquisition)! :lol:

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Ji I agree, I'm surprised there hasn't been more discussion on this....Can someone explain to my the science behind how an upgrade could make a model worst? I guess statistically I can't prove it, but just looking at it all season it changes run to run and just hasn't been very good or consistent. 

 

There is a couple big hitters on the 6z GFS ensembles for the clipper. I'm actually feeling this one big time. 

On the whole, it is definitely not "worst".  The developers ran something like 3 simulated years of the new package and looked at hundreds of metrics over many levels.  Was the implementation perfect?  No, obviously.  Some of the flaws have been noted and are being worked on already.  By the way, in order for the implementation to happen, there is subjective verification and feedback given back to the developers from forecasters in the field (at the NCEP level and region level).

 

I'm sure at 500mb the new GFS is considered "fine" by the NWS. Same criterion that still lends an air of respectability to the UKMET.

 

Yeah, that's the only metric that is used to judge a numerical model and it's obviously the only thing the NWS cares about.  In case it's not obvious, that last sentence was sarcasm.  I wish there were more UKMO products readily/freely available because it actually is a good model.

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Surface sucks for most part on GFS...near 40

Slp track is overhead and off the coast on the run. Shift slp just 75 miles south and problem mostly solved. I liked the trend for more upper level energy. The optimist in me thinks the euro rapid development and optimal lp track is within reason.

Euro ensembles are spread wide still and we're approaching short leads. Crazy.

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