Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 So.... Gfs on board with precip but surface sucks because of broad and unorganized slp. Gem on board with solid precip, slp, but still marginal surface. Euro says f it, all snow and nice event. Blend all 3 and we still walk away with 2nd event of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 00z GFS has a gargantuan SSW to open February, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Epic wind reversal in the upper levels..big fat high sitting over the pole: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 This is the Wednesday deal, right? Clipper comes down, models start digging that baby south...I might be in. It's pretty sketchy still. Very small precip max. Small shift brings tears. 12z euro ens improved but still fairly weak support for an event. The 0z op suite looked pretty good. Gefs is mixed. Safe to say our chances improved but we'll have to sweat it out for a few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Well, only 2 hours till we may get possibly NAM'd. I'd like to see the GFS hop on board and some consistency. Regardless, this seems like a legit threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Epic wind reversal in the upper levels..big fat high sitting over the pole: That's a nice look right there. You can really tell where the split is....but, can we commentate on 384hr panels? I heard it was a big no no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 It's pretty sketchy still. Very small precip max. Small shift brings tears. 12z euro ens improved but still fairly weak support for an event. The 0z op suite looked pretty good. Gefs is mixed. Safe to say our chances improved but we'll have to sweat it out for a few days I would not worry too much down there, PHL and north I would...I think this thing is going to dig, what I don't know is how much it turns the corner after it does...alot depends on that vort immediately behind it and a lobe of energy pushing through SE Canada, the Euro has that lobe badly timed so that this just goes right offshore instead of turning up towards Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Euro ENS mean supports the OP, but warmer...not surprising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Major changes again on the GFS for the weekend deal. Looks like it almost phases around New Orleans, but the southern stream is a little too slow. Result is OTS, but a lot closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 For 15z Friday: 18z run- 00z run This morning's 06z run I'm noticing how the southern stream vort has been speeding up every run and the two look close to phasing at 15z Friday. Pro guys, am I wrong?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Result: This: Versus: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Ji I agree, I'm surprised there hasn't been more discussion on this....Can someone explain to my the science behind how an upgrade could make a model worst? I guess statistically I can't prove it, but just looking at it all season it changes run to run and just hasn't been very good or consistent. There is a couple big hitters on the 6z GFS ensembles for the clipper. I'm actually feeling this one big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I'm sure at 500mb the new GFS is considered "fine" by the NWS. Same criterion that still lends an air of respectability to the UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 9z SREF came in more amped for the clipper, out of its range, but first of the midday suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 9z SREF came in more amped for the clipper, out of its range, but first of the midday suiteIt's funny how we all feel the need to make qualifying statements when we post stuff as just an observation during the slow times. We have all done it. Between runs out of boredom peeked at some obscure or out of range model. No shame in the observation or the statement of fact, it's up to the reader to determine how much weight to give it. But we act like the Spanish Inquisition might show up if not stated correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 It's funny how we all feel the need to make qualifying statements when we post stuff as just an observation during the slow times. We have all done it. Between runs out of boredom peeked at some obscure or out of range model. No shame in the observation or the statement of fact, it's up to the reader to determine how much weight to give it. But we act like the Spanish Inquisition might show up if not stated correctly. Ha! So true, I guess that's the nature of the beast of forecasting and science in general. Perhaps especially with respect to weather forecasting. I'm not speaking for everyone, and my comment may not be totally accurate, so take with the proverbial grain of salt (take that, Spanish Inquisition)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 3 members showing some decent snow, bottom right is da bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 NAM is down with the clipper....literally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Unfortunate to have a great Euro run last night, would have loved to save it for Tuesday at 12z. Nevertheless models all over the place with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 anyone notice that EZF received 1.01" qpf from the Euro wow probably start as rain though but definitely switches over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 anyone notice that EZF received 1.01" qpf from the Euro wow probably start as rain though but definitely switches over Is that from the clipper? Weird for the Euro to show that and for the NAM to be dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Ji I agree, I'm surprised there hasn't been more discussion on this....Can someone explain to my the science behind how an upgrade could make a model worst? I guess statistically I can't prove it, but just looking at it all season it changes run to run and just hasn't been very good or consistent. There is a couple big hitters on the 6z GFS ensembles for the clipper. I'm actually feeling this one big time. On the whole, it is definitely not "worst". The developers ran something like 3 simulated years of the new package and looked at hundreds of metrics over many levels. Was the implementation perfect? No, obviously. Some of the flaws have been noted and are being worked on already. By the way, in order for the implementation to happen, there is subjective verification and feedback given back to the developers from forecasters in the field (at the NCEP level and region level). I'm sure at 500mb the new GFS is considered "fine" by the NWS. Same criterion that still lends an air of respectability to the UKMET. Yeah, that's the only metric that is used to judge a numerical model and it's obviously the only thing the NWS cares about. In case it's not obvious, that last sentence was sarcasm. I wish there were more UKMO products readily/freely available because it actually is a good model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Gfs upping the h5 look for the clipper. Nice track. The trailing vort in MN kinda strings things out but the lead vort did close off for a frame. That's a nice trend towards a more energetic system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 If the clipper happens I'm going to yell and Wes and Jason. Edit to add winky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Is that from the clipper? Weird for the Euro to show that and for the NAM to be dry.yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 That Fri system is so close to being really big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Surface sucks for most part on GFS...near 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Surface sucks for most part on GFS...near 40Slp track is overhead and off the coast on the run. Shift slp just 75 miles south and problem mostly solved. I liked the trend for more upper level energy. The optimist in me thinks the euro rapid development and optimal lp track is within reason. Euro ensembles are spread wide still and we're approaching short leads. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I'm guessing the euro took some NAM pills to spruce up its Saturday night but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Of course i get all excited and boom the GFS looks like crap, hopefully the GGEM holds course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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