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January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2


WinterWxLuvr

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wonder what has the surface killing us this time on all the models

we're near or at climo low point, there's no High moving off the coast giving us a return air flow......? stale cold?

 

It appears the "clipper parade" in the longer range beyond next weekend has not very good surface temps (to be polite about it).  850 is marginal to cold enough, but there's low pressure all the way back into the upper Lakes.  I think that's messing things up at that time.  For the clipper next week, hard to say...maybe because the proximity of the low, and we're in a marginal air mass prior?

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wonder what has the surface killing us this time on all the models

we're near or at climo low point, there's no High moving off the coast giving us a return air flow......? stale cold?

Gfs has a broad closed lp circ and its basically overhead. When I say broad I mean like covering 4 states with us being in the middle to southern edge. Can't really draw in cold surface temps like that.

But is that a realistic scenario given the h5 look? Imho- there would be a tighter closed contour at the surface and h85. Gem has a better look with a closed contour at h85 on the va/nc border.

The first battle with having a decent vort pass seems to be going in our favor. The next thing is where the slp develops and passes. If we end up on the nw side of closed circulation then temps resolve by default for the most part.

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Gfs has a broad closed lp circ and its basically overhead. When I say broad I mean like covering 4 states with us being in the middle to southern edge. Can't really draw in cold surface temps like that.

But is that a realistic scenario given the h5 look? Imho- there would be a tighter closed contour at the surface and h85. Gem has a better look with a closed contour at h85 on the va/nc border.

The first battle with having a decent vort pass seems to be going in our favor. The next thing is where the slp develops and passes. If we end up on the nw side of closed circulation then temps resolve by default for the most part.

 

Yes, the surface low location appears to be the biggest problem.  However as you say, h5 actually looks pretty good.  The vort (or vorts?) passes just to our south.  Could that short wave over Iowa be screwing with things in some manner?  Whether or not that's real remains to be seen, but looks like it kicks things away.  However, it was there at 18Z too.

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Gfs has a broad closed lp circ and its basically overhead. When I say broad I mean like covering 4 states with us being in the middle to southern edge. Can't really draw in cold surface temps like that.

But is that a realistic scenario given the h5 look? Imho- there would be a tighter closed contour at the surface and h85. Gem has a better look with a closed contour at h85 on the va/nc border.

The first battle with having a decent vort pass seems to be going in our favor. The next thing is where the slp develops and passes. If we end up on the nw side of closed circulation then temps resolve by default for the most part.

I was already hoping for all of that, but I think we'd need what the Canadian is showing to get temps to crash. idk if you looked at the 12Z run of the GGEM, but it essentially had nothing precip-wise so believing such a drastic change is tough for me at this point. Hopefully, the Euro might come forward with a good run for once.

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I was out most of the day and just now looking at models. Euro ens looked better than they have with the midweek clipper but the mean track is too close to do much. Basically overhead. The trend has been south though. If the mslp track shifted just 75 miles south we would be in a really good spot.

All guidance is pointing towards a fast moving ns dominated regime for the next 2 weeks. It's going to op model chaos. The smart way to look at it is just take one threat/vort at a time. Any one that gets underneath us can do something. But we'll never have confidence in anything until at least inside of 4 days. It's going to be tough on the nerves for quite a whil.

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I think the surface issues are largely the new GFS, this thing is always a toaster bath in the boundary layer for some reason.

 

I cannot say anything as to whether or not the new GFS has an issue with that in general, but in this particular case I can see why it's pretty warm.  There's nothing in the surface pattern that draws in cold air, and no real cold highs around us as the Clipper low moves by.  In fact, looks almost like there's a front stretching down through us (from that wound up low around Newfoundland) as the Clipper approaches.

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I think the surface issues are largely the new GFS, this thing is always a toaster bath in the boundary layer for some reason.

Seems that way but who knows in this specific case. There's no real hp to the north. There's less than a 10mb difference between the low and the high. Midlevels seem fine but we'll need some sort of cold push from the north at the surface. East winds at 3 knots won't do it

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did somebody just order a nerve settler? :drunk:

I'm predicting 6-12 megabytes of "models suck and winter cancel" posts from people who don't understand why it's not mathematically possible for numerical models to "lock and hold" anything beyond a couple days in this type of pattern.

Just for fun....I could see a bowling ball ull happen if things amplify enough. Nice ensemble look for something to dig and close off after next weekend.

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Seems that way but who knows in this specific case. There's no real hp to the north. There's less than a 10mb difference between the low and the high. Midlevels seem fine but we'll need some sort of cold push from the north at the surface. East winds at 3 knots won't do it

You're out 0z Euro ears tonight bud.  Bring us luck.

 

re:  GGEM...I think most of us here know not to really take it for more than a grain of salt...especially with such a drastic change, it being alone and well, it being the GGEM.

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I'm predicting 6-12 megabytes of "models suck and winter cancel" posts from people who don't understand why it's not mathematically possible for numerical models to "lock and hold" anything beyond a couple days in this type of pattern.

Just for fun....I could see a bowling ball ull happen if things amplify enough. Nice ensemble look for something to dig and close off after next weekend.

We've already had that.  They've ruined about 45% of this thread already with their schtick.  

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I'm predicting 6-12 megabytes of "models suck and winter cancel" posts from people who don't understand why it's not mathematically possible for numerical models to "lock and hold" anything beyond a couple days in this type of pattern.

Just for fun....I could see a bowling ball ull happen if things amplify enough. Nice ensemble look for something to dig and close off after next weekend.

my problem is with the pattern....I just want snow

 

We've already had that.  They've ruined about 45% of this thread already with their schtick.  

becoming guilty....

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You're out 0z Euro ears tonight bud. Bring us luck.

re: GGEM...I think most of us here know not to really take it for more than a grain of salt...especially with such a drastic change, it being alone and well, it being the GGEM.

Hoping for an atypical euro jump to something relaxing to go to sleep with.

Midweek is the kickoff of what appears to be a very active northern stream pattern for the foreseeable future. We should have enough chances to get it right at least once. It won't be boring. That's for sure.

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Made a mistake last post. 12z wed and not 6z.

1006 lp over va beach @ 18z and snowing with surface still below freezing for dca west.

Nice!  All we gotta do is hold for 8 more runs  :axe:

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it is a repeat....a repeat of what we've had all winter

thus, expect the clipper to come south and deliver another modest snow and the big low in the gulf go by the wayside

 

 

Ha, it's md/va special on this run. Precip max is teeny. Prob best run we'll see. All downhill from here. Well....unless we're now #clippertown2015

I ain't spiking the ball because there's too far to go, but I admit I'm practicing on the sideline!

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