Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Boom. Boom?? Maybe for west of here and into SNE. But looks like rain to me right over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 GFS definitely going south with the clipper temps unknown at this point until I get update at NCEP Sfc temps aren't too good. Looks like mid-30s for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 It's trying for the end of the week storm! It's gonna be a miss, but it's a LOT better than the past day and a half of runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Its south. I have it out to 126...it does something with the clipper. looks marginal/warmish tho Yeah, was looking at that. Nice development and trend, but it's still too damn warm for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Boom?? Maybe for west of here and into SNE. But looks like rain to me right over us. Hey, it's a start! Verbatim it's not pure rain. I've noticed the new GFS shows rain in marginal temp situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 H5 is markedly different than 18z/12z. Trof is positively tilted, so it's gonna miss for now, but it's a lot closer than last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Gfs has the coastal low for next weekend making it to the east coast is is a bit further north on this run with the precip. at hr 138 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 It's trying for the end of the week storm! It's gonna be a miss, but it's a LOT better than the past day and a half of runs Updates are going kinda slow for me so haven't seen this yet. By a *lot* better, do you mean it's actually got a low that's getting off the SE coast again (with moisture)? As opposed to the weak wave going across southern FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Hey, it's a start! Verbatim it's not pure rain. I've noticed the new GFS shows rain in marginal temp situations. Fair enough. I only looked at the graphic and saw that. Not sure what the GFS algorithm is for how it shows p-type. At any rate, on re-thinking, that low actually does kind of go "boom!" right off the coast. Certainly more so compared to what it showed before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Updates are going kinda slow for me so haven't seen this yet. By a *lot* better, do you mean it's actually got a low that's getting off the SE coast again (with moisture)? As opposed to the weak wave going across southern FL. Yes. But it's positively tilted and the low is definitely gonna head out to sea..but it's better than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 H5 is markedly different than 18z/12z. Trof is positively tilted, so it's gonna miss for now, but it's a lot closer than last few runs. Wonder if this newer clipper development is resulting in this down the line now. Though cannot recall offhand what the clipper was doing when we had "good" solutions. I want to say when it was just all northern stream well to our north, that's when the GFS dropped the bigger event next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Yes. But it's positively tilted and the low is definitely gonna head out to sea..but it's better than previous runs. Absolutely better sounding despite OTS. Better than a weak surface trough going off the coast of Miami. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 we are seemingly back into "whatever has to go wrong, will go wrong" pattern with the clipper Exhibit A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Track of the Clipper vort goes just underneath us. It looks a bit disorganized or spread out, with 3 sort of main blobs. There's also a shortwave very close by crossing through IA at that time. Wonder if that's kicking it out too fast. But definitely more intriguing than before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 well the 1/23 monster seems to be making a comeback on all the guidance including this new GFS. The upper levels on 1/23- 1/24 are pretty close to a doing something big for this area. I'm still interested in that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 well the 1/23 monster seems to be making a comeback on all the guidance including this new GFS. The upper levels on 1/23- 1/24 are pretty close to a doing something big for this area. I'm still interested in that period. I didn't see any discussion in here earlier, but what did the 12Z Euro show? (ETA: Correction, there was some but must have gone by it real fast. Sounds like it was a miss, but possibly "close" to something good.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I didn't see any discussion in here earlier, but what did the 12Z Euro show? (ETA: Correction, there was some but must have gone by it real fast. Sounds like it was a miss, but possibly "close" to something good.) I didn't see it either, but I believe some others said the upper levels (500 mb vort) was a major improvement toward getting something big on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 As always the fate of the late week coastal potential seems to be tied to the energy in the southwest. The models that have shown a hit or a near miss for us bring that energy out of the southwest and phase or partial phase it with energy from the northern stream. There is a nice ridge out west and trough in the east, so if that energy comes out and phases or partially phases with northern stream, we could score. If that energy stays trapped in the southwest, we will have to tie any hopes of snow to the clipper parade. I would certainly trade a parade of clippers to score a medium to high impact coastal myself, but it will probably be a few days before we know whether that southern stream energy in the southwest comes east or gets trapped in the southwest. Even if it gets trapped in the southwest, it acts like money in the bank, and some of the models have it giving us a shot at a coastal further out in time. Something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 0z GGEM for the clipper . Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Soooo, not much more new discussion but I guess the take-away is that it sure looks like next week could actually become interesting again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 GGEM ggem.tiff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 GGEM Hard to make out those B&W plots with my eyes (haha!), but looks like ~15mm or so (10 plus 5 in the plots Snow88 showed)? Can't get much feel for the thermal look, but the thicknesses seem good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 GGEM careful....we all know what the GGEM showed for days and days before Monday and nada I'd like to know what it shows for the surface too, because that's what's fookin' us with this clipper on all the models so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Hard to make out those B&W plots with my eyes (haha!), but looks like ~15mm or so (10 plus 5 in the plots Snow88 showed)? Can't get much feel for the thermal look, but the thicknesses seem good. Surface aint great tho. But it's definitely a huge change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 careful....we all know what the GGEM showed for days and days before Monday and nada I'd like to know what it shows for the surface too, because that's what's fookin' us qit this clipper on all the models so far Careful for what? I'm just reacting to what the model shows. It's the GGEM..we all know how it goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 For late week, GGEM looks like the GFS...ton of moisture off the SE coast, but zipping out to sea. EDIT: H5 looks better on GGEM vs GFS...it's relatively close to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Surface aint great tho. But it's definitely a huge change wonder what has the surface killing us this time on all the models we're near or at climo low point, there's no High moving off the coast giving us a return air flow......? stale cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 For late week, GGEM looks like the GFS...ton of moisture off the SE coast, but zipping out to sea. EDIT: H5 looks better on GGEM vs GFS...it's relatively close to us. Overall this evenings runs have provided some steps in the right direction, but we aren't quite there. This week is going to be a fun week for tracking, I'm just hoping we have something to show for it when it's all said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 GGEM has several inches for the DC area. I hope we all cash in on this upcoming clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 another fantasy snow at the end of the GFS run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.