CWG January 15 two week outlook

[CAPE]

Well, the ens guidance looks about as good as it can without much cooperation from the Atlantic. We are entering peak climo window for snow in the MA. Sure DT can play contrarian and say nope its not gonna happen.... hell I could do that and have a 50% chance at being correct, esp given the upcoming pattern is not going to be an ideal one for snow. But odds are we will never see a -AO/NAO this winter. So this period may be our best shot at getting one or two moderate events.

[AlaskaETC]

Well, the ens guidance looks about as good as it can without much cooperation from the Atlantic. We are entering peak climo window for snow in the MA. Sure DT can play contrarian and say nope its not gonna happen.... hell I could do that and have a 50% chance at being correct, esp given the upcoming pattern is not going to be an ideal one for snow. But odds are we will never see a -AO/NAO this winter. So this period may be our best shot at getting one or two moderate events.

Dave is someone that likes to use his personality...he seems to be enjoying playing the villain card.

[kurtstack]

Well, the ens guidance looks about as good as it can without much cooperation from the Atlantic. We are entering peak climo window for snow in the MA. Sure DT can play contrarian and say nope its not gonna happen.... hell I could do that and have a 50% chance at being correct, esp given the upcoming pattern is not going to be an ideal one for snow. But odds are we will never see a -AO/NAO this winter. So this period may be our best shot at getting one or two moderate events.

If 9 of the 10 analogs for the pattern had snow of 1.8" or more, I'd have to say the odds are probably above 50% that we cash in on at least a light snow event.  I'd side with Wes, if DT is taking the opposing view here.  That set of analogs is pretty good for at least some accumulating snow.

[usedtobe]

Today's analogs from the D+8 and D+11 were not quite as impressive, one 3 of 10 scored for the D+8 but its top analogs was 2/10/2006 which corresponded with a 8.8" snow.  3 or 4 snow events from the analogs is pretty close to average for this time of year unless you're stuck in a ridge.  

 

The D+11 was more bullish than the D+8 and scored on 6 of 10 analogs which is more than you typically see.  The winner still was Feb 15, 1996 which gave DCA 6.8 and ADW 13"  The second biggest was 3.4 inches on 2/1/1972.  The bulk were in the 1.8 to 2.8 range.  I'm guessing from clippers. 

[Bob Chill]

Thanks for the update Wes. Euro ens last night remained active through the run and the cold signal d10+ is staying put in time.

Guidance is advertising ns vorts affecting various portions of the east coast every 2-3 days. Going to be model mayhem.

[usedtobe]

Thanks for the update Wes. Euro ens last night remained active through the run and the cold signal d10+ is staying put in time.

Guidance is advertising ns vorts affecting various portions of the east coast every 2-3 days. Going to be model mayhem.

Too bad the Wed system is probably going to have marginal temps even with the Euro but even more os with today's GFS which moved towards last night's Euro but is quite a bit warmer.

[Bob Chill]

Too bad the Wed system is probably going to have marginal temps even with the Euro but even more os with today's GFS which moved towards last night's Euro but is quite a bit warmer.

Every suite has generally been going in our favor the last couple days. Gfs is diffuse at the surface until late. Makes sense that it's warm. We need a euro'esque evolution or nothing sticks

[usedtobe]

Every suite has generally been going in our favor the last couple days. Gfs is diffuse at the surface until late. Makes sense that it's warm. We need a euro'esque evolution or nothing sticks

They have moved in our favor but we need the heavier precip and vertical motion that the euro has to cash in.  Otherwise it will be a cold rain or a mix except at elevation or along the northern and western fringes. 

[usedtobe]

Looked at today's CPC D+8 ensemble  analogs centered on Jan 27.  They still look pretty good for having a positive NAO.  Six of 10 had snowstorms within 3 days of the mean.   Not sure what climo is for getting 1 inch of snow over a 7 day period in January.  I'm guessing it is still below 50% maybe quite a bit below that but maybe Ian or Matt could actually provide a climo probability of an inch during the week centered on January 27.  I still think the pattern is an above normal one for getting snow but that still doesn't mean we get snow,  plain old luck also come into play. 

 

Anyway,  the 6 snow cases

 

2/13/96  6.8

2/11/06  8.8

1/20/05    3

2/5/95    4.5

2/8/1954 2.5

1/24/61    7

 

That pattern may or may not pan out but fi the ens mean is correct we should at least have stuff to track.  Whether we score, who knows?  no me.

[Bob Chill]

Looked at today's CPC D+8 ensemble  analogs centered on Jan 27.  They still look pretty good for having a positive NAO.  Six of 10 had snowstorms within 3 days of the mean.   Not sure what climo is for getting 1 inch of snow over a 7 day period in January.  I'm guessing it is still below 50% maybe quite a bit below that but maybe Ian or Matt could actually provide a climo probability of an inch during the week centered on January 27.  I still think the pattern is an above normal one for getting snow but that still doesn't mean we get snow,  plain old luck also come into play. 

 

Anyway,  the 6 snow cases

 

2/13/96  6.8

2/11/06  8.8

1/20/05    3

2/5/95    4.5

2/8/1954 2.5

1/24/61    7

 

That pattern may or may not pan out but fi the ens mean is correct we should at least have stuff to track.  Whether we score, who knows?  no me.

 

 

At least it looks like we'll have multiple ns vorts affecting the eastern half of the conus over the next 10+ days. Get enough chances and we'll end up in the cross hairs more likely than not. Maybe the pna ridge goes skyscraper and we get something to close off over the MS river. 

[usedtobe]

At least it looks like we'll have multiple ns vorts affecting the eastern half of the conus over the next 10+ days. Get enough chances and we'll end up in the cross hairs more likely than not. Maybe the pna ridge goes skyscraper and we get something to close off over the MS river. 

 

Don't want that,  We'd end up rain. 

[HighStakes]

2/13/96 keeps showing up.

[Bob Chill]

Don't want that,  We'd end up rain. 

 

lol- i forgot to mention the transient 50/50

[Bob Chill]

2/13/96 keeps showing up.

 

2/13/03 is now on the d11+

[gymengineer]

2/13/96 keeps showing up.

And most of those analogs are examples of northern stream systems that got it done for at least moderate snow in our area (with many of them even better for areas to our northeast). 

[Ian]

2/13/03 is now on the d11+

PDIII will save us.

Edit: this wasn't that good of a joke for a serious thread.

[usedtobe]

PDIII will save us.

Edit: this wasn't that good of a joke for a serious thread.

Around the Jan 26 or 27 is showing up as a window on the ensemble.  My buddy Rich Grumm posted a ensemble mean for that time period on his facebook page. 

[gymengineer]

Around the Jan 26 or 27 is showing up as a window on the ensemble.  My buddy Rich Grumm posted a ensemble mean for that time period on his facebook page. 

So perhaps the most encouraging piece is that the serviceable pattern has survived going forward in time from D11 to D7/D8. 

[usedtobe]

So perhaps the most encouraging piece is that the serviceable pattern has survived going forward in time from D11 to D7/D8. 

Yes and the operational Euro has 3 chances, the clipper which probably will be a tad warm,  another chance around the 24th and a third around the 27th so what we're seeing on the deterministic model runs is what you'd expect from the mean pattern though it is still possible that none of the chances bear fruit but also possible that one or more do.