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Winter 2014/15 Med/Long Range Discussion Part 3


Chicago Storm

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I don't hate snow after it's fallen, but I'm more interested in 'the storm' and the effects it has during the snowfall. If an 8" storm occurs overnight and I don't see it snow at all I'm not excited much. I wanna see the thing roll in and accumulate. That's weather.

 

Agreed, especially the bolded...

 

If the effects it has are relatively low impact or nothing to write home about, then yeah it kind of diminishes how impressive "the storm" is just a bit.

 

As far as snow after it's fallen, I mean I'll deal with it as long as it has to stick around, but I won't hardly shed a tear once it's gone. It's a PITA trying to ensure the porch and steps are always salted for any guest or the mail person and trying to keep from slipping/falling while walking outside. Also, we don't have our side streets plowed/salted here, so they remain trecherous to drive on long after the snowfall has ended.

 

But like you said, it's a weather board and it should be expected for us to be most interested in the weather aspects of Winter...

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snow is only good when it's falling and the immediate 12 hours after

 

the obsessing and romanticizing of 1-2" nickel and dime events must be a Michigan thing.

 

on the plus side, the 12z GFS isn't a deep freeze snoozer so that's nice

A glimmer of hope shines through.

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No, at least not for all in Michigan...

 

 

1-2 is okay if there is something decent thrown in between..

 

I think part of it is climo and thus expectations for some atleast. Josh lives in a area where big events are rare and thus why they are not as important to him. He has only seen one event of a foot and that is it. No amount of money in the world could get me to live in that area. That is me though.. Ofcourse my expectations might be different had i grown up there.

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1-2 is okay if there is something decent thrown in between..

 

I think part of it is climo and thus expectations for some atleast. Josh lives in a area where big events are rare and thus why they are not as important to him. He has only seen one event of a foot and that is it. No amount of money in the world could get me to live in that area. That is me though.. Ofcourse my expectations might be different had i grown up there.

 

Fair enough.

 

That said, I just don't get the implied logic (again, not picking on any particular person) that a weather weenie can't dislike, or not be impressed, by non-weather aspects of winter. 

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Rainman check out my YouTube channel to see how intense 5-6 incHes of snow an hour is. It melted in a few days but I wouldn't trade it for 2 months of 30 inches of cover slowly accumulating.

It's all about the experience of something extreme. Something that will be hard to forget, which unfortunately we cannot get in S/E Michigan.

 

Been waiting for that  "Big One" for a decade +. lol . Even blizzard of 2011 was a big disappointment. Got only 11.3" of snowfall. Anyways, if its going to snow let it snow, don't give me the 1-2" crap that just causes enormous amounts of accidents. 

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Fair enough.

 

That said, I just don't get the implied logic (again, not picking on any particular person) that a weather weenie can't dislike, or not be impressed, by non-weather aspects of winter. 

 

The more ma nature throws at me the better and or more impressed i am. Not saying i want a twister rolling up by backyard but i don't mind viewing such stuff if it is a safe distance from my house. Only thing i don't care for is heavy duty ice storms but this has to do with location because i have a ton of wires around my house. I like action and well 1-2 isn't much action. Ofcourse i am from a area/region where snowcover was no biggie ( lame ) and thus was more about the storm. Yeah it is nice to see but old dirty dog piss yellow snow does zero for me.

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1-2 is okay if there is something decent thrown in between..

I think part of it is climo and thus expectations for some atleast. Josh lives in a area where big events are rare and thus why they are not as important to him. He has only seen one event of a foot and that is it. No amount of money in the world could get me to live in that area. That is me though.. Ofcourse my expectations might be different had i grown up there.

quite the discussion has blossomed, as it always does on any such topic, and im definitely always one of the targets lol.

Lets put it this way....for me, a storms most important aspect is once the snow stops falling. I love watching snow fall,.but its end result is what matters to me. I am just as content sleeping thru an entire storm and then waking up to its damage as I am seeing the storm happen, especially since we usually see several whiteout snow squalls from the lake, in which case it snows harder for a brief time than most storms. I have seen about 8 storms since 1999 drop 11-12" btw, and i can assure you that after going up north almost every winter and having a 2 foot snowpack in my own yard last year, no single.storm for me will top that. None. Not happening. Just as my comment about not understanding why winter storm lovers hate snow on the ground, you guys have to understand the storm itself isnt important to me. I could never grow up where you did. Its all relative. Then again, who knows if I would even like winter if I grew up on the coast?

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snow is only good when it's falling and the immediate 12 hours after

 

the obsessing and romanticizing of 1-2" nickel and dime events must be a Michigan thing.

 

on the plus side, the 12z GFS isn't a deep freeze snoozer so that's nice

Weren't you one of the people posting 2 post per minute, giving us updates on every .10" that fell during your little 2" bliz a week or so ago?
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If you love snow, but hate it once it touches the ground, you are a weird person. It has nothing to do with statistics or climatology. Most people who like snow appreciate the transformative effect it has on a landscape. I am also surprised that so many people here would apparently get off on a 34 degree blizzard during which every flake melted once it touched the ground because, at that point, it is no longer weather. This whole "snow is only good when it is falling" mindset is new to me.

 

I hear ya, personally if I sleep through the entire snowfall, it doesn't matter much to me. It's the end result that matters.

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Josh and I have a similar thinking on this topic, we both USE the snow. He snowshoes and does a lot of photography, sledding and other winter activities... He only cares about how much pack builds up, similar to what I'm looking for.

 

Both of us live in the wrong area too.

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Grasping but from IND's afternoon AFD:

 

ONE ITEM TO KEEP AN EYE ON...A STRONGER SURFACE WAVE WILL TRACK  
IN TANDEM WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY  
ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST STATES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE  
FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK...WITH THE SYSTEM BOMBING OUT OFF THE  
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY AS THE JET ENERGY PHASES. WHILE  
THIS SYSTEM STANDS TO HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON CENTRAL INDIANA  
AT THIS TIME...ANY QUICKER PHASE OF THE POLAR/SUBTROPICAL JETS COULD  
CONCEIVABLY PULL THE BACK END OF THE PRECIP SHIELD NORTH INTO  
PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.  
SOMETHING TO WATCH GOING FORWARD.

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Grasping but from IND's afternoon AFD:

 

ONE ITEM TO KEEP AN EYE ON...A STRONGER SURFACE WAVE WILL TRACK  

IN TANDEM WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY  

ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST STATES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE  

FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK...WITH THE SYSTEM BOMBING OUT OFF THE  

NEW ENGLAND COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY AS THE JET ENERGY PHASES. WHILE  

THIS SYSTEM STANDS TO HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON CENTRAL INDIANA  

AT THIS TIME...ANY QUICKER PHASE OF THE POLAR/SUBTROPICAL JETS COULD  

CONCEIVABLY PULL THE BACK END OF THE PRECIP SHIELD NORTH INTO  

PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.  

SOMETHING TO WATCH GOING FORWARD.

 

Honestly, if I was a MA or NE weenie, I'd be getting excited about Sun-Mon.   Even though the OP euro/gfs isn't bullish on it yet.  The euro ensembles are bullish on the clipper digging much deeper and exploding in the southeast.   Ironically the 12z nogaps is going crazy with it, which is odd considering it is an infamously flat model..  The precip shield gets to about Central Ohio and misses most of us, but the eastcoast is clocked.

 

I bet we see a bomb show up on one or more runs at 00z.

post-622-0-57360700-1421701094_thumb.jpg

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Rainman check out my YouTube channel to see how intense 5-6 incHes of snow an hour is. It melted in a few days but I wouldn't trade it for 2 months of 30 inches of cover slowly accumulating.

I wouldn't trade it either. I was just questioning those who enjoy snow so much, but don't care if it accumulates because according to them, once snow touches the ground it is no longer weather and thus not interesting. The exception is apparently the case when the wind moves the snow along the ground, in which case interest continues until the wind subsides.

Case in point: To me, this sounds like they would find your 6"/hr snowfall rates exciting but would just assume be out in the middle of Lake Erie for it because interest in snow ceases upon the snowflake's contact with the ground, except in the case that it may be picked up a second time by the wind.

It is just a very very specific way to "enjoy" winter and I find it odd to say the least. But to each their own. Personally, I couldn't enjoy a snowstorm if nothing was sticking, even if the wind wasn't calm.

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Grasping but from IND's afternoon AFD:

 

ONE ITEM TO KEEP AN EYE ON...A STRONGER SURFACE WAVE WILL TRACK  

IN TANDEM WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY  

ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST STATES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE  

FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK...WITH THE SYSTEM BOMBING OUT OFF THE  

NEW ENGLAND COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY AS THE JET ENERGY PHASES. WHILE  

THIS SYSTEM STANDS TO HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON CENTRAL INDIANA  

AT THIS TIME...ANY QUICKER PHASE OF THE POLAR/SUBTROPICAL JETS COULD  

CONCEIVABLY PULL THE BACK END OF THE PRECIP SHIELD NORTH INTO  

PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.  

SOMETHING TO WATCH GOING FORWARD.

 

Even so, with the +PNA ridge, the Polar Jet being so darn progressive and what appears to be some Atlantic blocking developing, anything that does get pulled back this far westward probably won't be significant (maybe a 1-4" deal)...

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I admit, I like snow cover.  Second only to the snow falling itself.  However, a stale snow cover, that hangs on forever in cold and dry conditions without ever getting freshened up looses it's appeal really quick.

 

I think my favorite winter conditions are the day after a big snowfall with gusty winds and blowing and drifting. 

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I wouldn't trade it either. I was just questioning those who enjoy snow so much, but don't care if it accumulates because according to them, once snow touches the ground it is no longer weather and thus not interesting. The exception is apparently the case when the wind moves the snow along the ground, in which case interest continues until the wind subsides.

Case in point: To me, this sounds like they would find your 6"/hr snowfall rates exciting but would just assume be out in the middle of Lake Erie for it because interest in snow ceases upon the snowflake's contact with the ground, except in the case that it may be picked up a second time by the wind.

It is just a very very specific way to "enjoy" winter and I find it odd to say the least. But to each their own. Personally, I couldn't enjoy a snowstorm if nothing was sticking, even if the wind wasn't calm.

 

 

Is anyone really making the argument that they enjoy non-accumulating snow more than accumulating snow?  Seems like you're taking it to the extreme here.  Wanting a big storm and not caring if it melts within a day or two is not the same thing as wanting the snow to melt as it falls.

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Is anyone really making the argument that they enjoy non-accumulating snow more than accumulating snow?

 

That wasn't the point at all...

 

The point, again, was that it's a weather board and folks on a weather board not being thrilled about seeing snow on the ground when it's not falling or not being thrilled about winter sports shouldn't be a surprise to anyone (as snow just sitting on the ground and winter sports is not "weather").

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Is anyone really making the argument that they enjoy non-accumulating snow more than accumulating snow? Seems like you're taking it to the extreme here. Wanting a big storm and not caring if it melts within a day or two is not the same thing as wanting the snow to melt as it falls.

It was in response to those who said snowpack is not interesting and snow is not weather once it touches the ground. You might be right that there is some kind of optimal time limit for snow to be on the ground before it makes the exciting-to-boring transition. Based on the information I was given, I could only assume the transition was instantaneous. Maybe it's more like 10 minutes or a few hours or something. Maybe if it melted off at synoptic times? By definition, that is when the snow has settled enough for measurement and truly becomes a snowpack.

Like I said, I just find it to be both weird and oddly specific. But you're right, each person might have a slightly different idea for optimal residence time. I can't say I have ever given it any thought. I just like snow.

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Honestly, if I was a MA or NE weenie, I'd be getting excited about Sun-Mon.   Even though the OP euro/gfs isn't bullish on it yet.  The euro ensembles are bullish on the clipper digging much deeper and exploding in the southeast.   Ironically the 12z nogaps is going crazy with it, which is odd considering it is an infamously flat model..  The precip shield gets to about Central Ohio and misses most of us, but the eastcoast is clocked.

 

I bet we see a bomb show up on one or more runs at 00z.

 

I agree with the bolded. It certainly has potential for the east coast...

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I wouldn't trade it either. I was just questioning those who enjoy snow so much, but don't care if it accumulates because according to them, once snow touches the ground it is no longer weather and thus not interesting. The exception is apparently the case when the wind moves the snow along the ground, in which case interest continues until the wind subsides.

Case in point: To me, this sounds like they would find your 6"/hr snowfall rates exciting but would just assume be out in the middle of Lake Erie for it because interest in snow ceases upon the snowflake's contact with the ground, except in the case that it may be picked up a second time by the wind.

It is just a very very specific way to "enjoy" winter and I find it odd to say the least. But to each their own. Personally, I couldn't enjoy a snowstorm if nothing was sticking, even if the wind wasn't calm.

 

The best thing about the snow is it's legacy left after the storm passes. I was interested in that even before I snowmobiled or used the snow for hobby, it was always interesting to build a snowpack. The whole melting 12 hours later thing totally boggles my mind. 

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It was in response to those who said snowpack is not interesting and snow is not weather once it touches the ground. You might be right that there is some kind of optimal time limit for snow to be on the ground before it makes the exciting-to-boring transition. Based on the information I was given, I could only assume the transition was instantaneous. Maybe it's more like 10 minutes or a few hours or something. Maybe if it melted off at synoptic times? By definition, that is when the snow has settled enough for measurement and truly becomes a snowpack.

Like I said, I just find it to be both weird and oddly specific. But you're right, each person might have a slightly different idea for optimal residence time. I can't say I have ever given it any thought. I just like snow.

 

yea I don't get this.  If that's true, then floods aren't weather either.  

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The best thing about the snow is it's legacy left after the storm passes. I was interested in that even before I snowmobiled or used the snow for hobby, it was always interesting to build a snowpack. The whole melting 12 hours later thing totally boggles my mind.

I can't believe we are even debating what "weather" actually is. It's constant, even when its sunny and 40 without a cloud in the sky, weather is happening. Only thing I do get is people who live in the city not really caring about snow on the ground because, really, it's disgusting ugly in 6 hours no matter how much you get. Out in the boonies, snow stays pristine.

I prefer 6-7 months of Winter and snow cover but I do get a bigger thrill from watching it fall. Great thing is, I have the best of both worlds!

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It depends on how the flood occurs.

If it wasn't caused by a state of the atmosphere (but instead, say, a sewerage back-up or a dam breaking), then the flood is not a weather event...

What if heavy rain causes a dam break? How would they know if they should be excited or not? What if a dam breaks and then it rains on top of the flood? Are they only excited about the top inch of water? Maybe one day it will snow so we don't have to pass the time like this.
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It was in response to those who said snowpack is not interesting and snow is not weather once it touches the ground. You might be right that there is some kind of optimal time limit for snow to be on the ground before it makes the exciting-to-boring transition. Based on the information I was given, I could only assume the transition was instantaneous. Maybe it's more like 10 minutes or a few hours or something. Maybe if it melted off at synoptic times? By definition, that is when the snow has settled enough for measurement and truly becomes a snowpack.

Like I said, I just find it to be both weird and oddly specific. But you're right, each person might have a slightly different idea for optimal residence time. I can't say I have ever given it any thought. I just like snow.

Snow depth and snow cores are considered very important aspects of daily weather data to the NWS (the depth you will see in your local NWS f6/climate data, the cores you will not), so I have to disagree its not "weather". If its not, I guess a sunny, blue sky day or a thick stratus deck isnt weather either. But thats me.

 

Back to the weather...looking like two rounds of light snow the next few days. Models seem to be beefing up the qpf a tad and DTX is going the conservative "50% chance of snow route", both good signs :lol:. Hell if the NAM is right we will have nickle and dimed our way to a foot of snow the last 2.5 weeks.

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I can't believe we are even debating what "weather" actually is. It's constant, even when its sunny and 40 without a cloud in the sky, weather is happening. Only thing I do get is people who live in the city not really caring about snow on the ground because, really, it's disgusting ugly in 6 hours no matter how much you get. Out in the boonies, snow stays pristine.

I prefer 6-7 months of Winter and snow cover but I do get a bigger thrill from watching it fall. Great thing is, I have the best of both worlds!

This is an excellent point I could drive down a busy street after a thaw has battered a snowpack, my own yard being a jagged slusshy mess, and pass black and gray snowbanks, puddles, and slush, then go into a park or rural area and suddenly everything is solid white. Obviously its still glacierized, but I could take a pic of it and you would not know it isnt fresh snow. Its even more extreme in the UP. You think you dont like dirty snowbanks in Chicago or Detroit? Go to the Soo. The roadside will feature disgusting monster piles of black snow, layered with sand and other grime. Turn a corner and drive into the forest. Boom. Winter wonderland.

 

As this thread shows though, different strokes for different folks.

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