OHweather Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I wonder if this is what's missing. It has that feel that nothing is really shaking up the pattern so it gets stale, especially with the foggy indice signals. One massive phase job comes together and we get a powerhouse cutter and we could be off to the races, post 01/28/78 style. The pattern has just been too fast all winter I think. A big bomb can certainly cause some blocking over eastern Canada/the NW Atlantic, so that may help. Last winter was a ton of small events with a couple of bigger ones, we haven't had a persistent enough NW flow to get the small events this winter so the lack of big ones hurts more. There's been some talk of the extremely -QBO causing the fast pattern. If the QBO doesn't start really coming up the rest of the winter it would be one of the strongest and longest lasting easterly QBOs in recent memory, so I'd think it will come up a little eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 true, however the fact that he actually posted that thought is somewhat unusual....especially since he preaches about how you shouldn't give credence to 1 or 2 model runs. He might be laying some ground work to build an emergency exit...just in case. Possibly I don't know what his forecast was. If he went for extreme cold, I can see why he'd want an out. If he just went below average and didn't bite hard on the extreme cold, he should still be fine...at least I think, I really don't know after how the last month and a half has gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 gfs looks good for widespread snows across the subforum with that clipper next weekend.... I guess it's something at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Possibly I don't know what his forecast was. If he went for extreme cold, I can see why he'd want an out. If he just went below average and didn't bite hard on the extreme cold, he should still be fine...at least I think, I really don't know after how the last month and a half has gone he's been hitting the late Jan early Feb cold shot pretty hard, (as in more severe than the one a week ago)....also been beating the drum that the cold locks in after that til at least March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Well the modeling of Tuesday's clipper has really stunk. The 12z NAM still hangs on to a transient fgen band in the LP, so maybe there is some potential still hiding in there somewhere, but I give up. Hopefully we can produce a good cyclone or two as the late Jan/early Feb cold push makes its way into the US. November couldn't possibly end up being the best month of the entire winter could it..? November was more anomalous, but come on lol. January has had more than twice the amount of snow November has, not to mention deeper snow, longer lasting snowcover, and more brutal cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 At this point hopping on the clipper train is about all we have... For the entire winter it has been the same song and dance and to me the MJO EPO and other teleconnections are still pointing in the same direction. For now I think the southern originating systems are all but a dream and the only way winter will make its mark is from north, in the form of clippers. As for the cold in the long range it does make sense, for this winter has seen this scenario unfold a few times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 In November was the northern stream dominate or did the systems originate from the south ? It would be nice to see in map form the tracks of the systems thus far and look for developing patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 In November was the northern stream dominate or did the systems originate from the south ? It would be nice to see in map form the tracks of the systems thus far and look for developing patterns. Northern Stream Dominant...for a week or two. Almost all of the snow we have received in the snowbelts has been from lake effect and a few clippers. Almost any system that comes from the Southern stream is a dying low pressure that can pull in any cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 The pattern has just been too fast all winter I think. A big bomb can certainly cause some blocking over eastern Canada/the NW Atlantic, so that may help. Last winter was a ton of small events with a couple of bigger ones, we haven't had a persistent enough NW flow to get the small events this winter so the lack of big ones hurts more. There's been some talk of the extremely -QBO causing the fast pattern. If the QBO doesn't start really coming up the rest of the winter it would be one of the strongest and longest lasting easterly QBOs in recent memory, so I'd think it will come up a little eventually. It's not so much the -QBO on its own but its the indice coupled with solar/ENSO. This year is a great example of the Holton-Tan effect where a -QBO/Smax state promotes a +NAM with a strengthened PNJ. This pattern is much more consistent with +QBO/nino years which tends to have a +NAM in D-J with a bit of a reversal in F-M. So far the HT relationship has been strong enough to ward off any +PDO/+SCE/strong BDC induced wavebreaking(which have been plentiful despite the stubborn PV). This is a big reason why we are seeing such a +NAO. If the GEFS/EC are to be believed, there will be another attempt at a u-wind reversal later this month, especially as SF10 values dip quite a bit. This displaces the vortex to N Asia with more CWB favoured over the N/C Atl(supporting a more -NAO in Feb). March to me looks like it should be a very cold month relative to normal(analogs support it), especially if we can reverse u-winds between now and then. Obviously the medium range pattern is nothing to snaz at either. The pac jet retraction that comes with E Hem forcing should supply the vodka cold in the 6-12 day period. There are some indications that we warm quite a bit towards ~2/1, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 next sunday's super clipper destroys I-80....puts down a narrow swath of around a foot. Detroit whiffed to the south, CMH wiffed to the north. yea, I know, it's an OP run 8 days out....don't need a reminder...just commentating the model run. All that aside, there is at least good agreement, (possibly the best agreement we've seen all season between models), of a strong clipper in the 7-8 day affecting the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 next sunday's super clipper destroys I-80....puts down a narrow swath of around a foot. Detroit whiffed to the south, CMH wiffed to the north. yea, I know, it's an OP run 8 days out....don't need a reminder...just commentating the model run. All that aside, there is at least good agreement, (possibly the best agreement we've seen all season between models), of a strong clipper in the 7-8 day affecting the subforum. Game Changer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 It's not so much the -QBO on its own but its the indice coupled with solar/ENSO. This year is a great example of the Holton-Tan effect where a -QBO/Smax state promotes a +NAM with a strengthened PNJ. This pattern is much more consistent with +QBO/nino years which tends to have a +NAM in D-J with a bit of a reversal in F-M. So far the HT relationship has been strong enough to ward off any +PDO/+SCE/strong BDC induced wavebreaking(which have been plentiful despite the stubborn PV). This is a big reason why we are seeing such a +NAO. If the GEFS/EC are to be believed, there will be another attempt at a u-wind reversal later this month, especially as SF10 values dip quite a bit. This displaces the vortex to N Asia with more CWB favoured over the N/C Atl(supporting a more -NAO in Feb). March to me looks like it should be a very cold month relative to normal(analogs support it), especially if we can reverse u-winds between now and then. Obviously the medium range pattern is nothing to snaz at either. The pac jet retraction that comes with E Hem forcing should supply the vodka cold in the 6-12 day period. There are some indications that we warm quite a bit towards ~2/1, however. I'm admittedly weak on some of this stratosphere and AAM stuff. However, reading through this, I was already liking the prospects for better cold/storminess in February, and the bolded also seems to suggest a potential improvement in the storminess department coming up. Would the fact that we're starting to come off of the solar max and also the -QBO potentially weakening a bit also help that? It is amazing to me how we've had wavebreaking in eastern N. America at times which would suggest at least a less +NAO but haven't seen the index improve much at all this winter. The stratospheric vortex has already been weakened by the early January "SSW event," and I'd have to think continued bombardment of the vortex as the Euro shows in the mid range could also weaken that further and help the AO/NAO in February. But, correct me if I'm wrong. I definitely agree on cold in the mid-range. I'm not sold on vodka cold, however every time the Pac jet has retracted (early November, mid-late December) this winter we've gotten a nice -EPO to deliver very cold air compared to normal. I think that trend will continue but I'm not convinced on a prolonged period of very cold weather...it's possible though. The 12z GEFS has a cross polar flow at times in the mid-long range which would support potential extreme cold. The 12z Euro still likes the potential storm next Sunday-Monday. I wouldn't call it a true clipper due to some STJ involvement, maybe a hybrid though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 The 00z ECMWF was cold and so is today's 12z run. The -30C contour at 850mb can be traced from just north of Lake Superior all the way back to Siberia and it's barreling toward the Great Lakes. Cross-polar flow FTW. The ensembles have been cold for quite awhile from what I've gathered from those who have access. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I'm admittedly weak on some of this stratosphere and AAM stuff. However, reading through this, I was already liking the prospects for better cold/storminess in February, and the bolded also seems to suggest a potential improvement in the storminess department coming up. Would the fact that we're starting to come off of the solar max and also the -QBO potentially weakening a bit also help that? It is amazing to me how we've had wavebreaking in eastern N. America at times which would suggest at least a less +NAO but haven't seen the index improve much at all this winter. The stratospheric vortex has already been weakened by the early January "SSW event," and I'd have to think continued bombardment of the vortex as the Euro shows in the mid range could also weaken that further and help the AO/NAO in February. But, correct me if I'm wrong. I definitely agree on cold in the mid-range. I'm not sold on vodka cold, however every time the Pac jet has retracted (early November, mid-late December) this winter we've gotten a nice -EPO to deliver very cold air compared to normal. I think that trend will continue but I'm not convinced on a prolonged period of very cold weather...it's possible though. The 12z GEFS has a cross polar flow at times in the mid-long range which would support potential extreme cold. The 12z Euro still likes the potential storm next Sunday-Monday. I wouldn't call it a true clipper due to some STJ involvement, maybe a hybrid though. Yea, it definitely helps a bit. A pretty potent -AAM anom is also propagating poleward towards the "holy grail" 50-60N range. This along with the relaxing/contracting Atl Hadley cell may help increase the frequency of the -NAO blips. The dominant phase of the ossc should still be + obviously. Definitely agree with you on the short lived nature of the cold shot... thinking we may go quite warm by ~2/1 with classic +PDO pattern w/ warmth across the N/W tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Yea, it definitely helps a bit. A pretty potent -AAM anom is also propagating poleward towards the "holy grail" 50-60N range. This along with the relaxing/contracting Atl Hadley cell may help increase the frequency of the -NAO blips. The dominant phase of the ossc should still be + obviously. Is that the -AAM anomaly that originated in the tropics around Dec 20th? I marked it on the attached chart for anyone who knows less about the AAM stuff than I do, if that's possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Is that the -AAM anomaly that originated in the tropics around Dec 20th? I marked it on the attached chart for anyone who knows less about the AAM stuff than I do, if that's possible Yes, exactly. E Hem forcing will only help accelerate this propagation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I'm sorry but it is hard to believe anything in the models until it gets within the 120 hours range. This 'massive cold blast' seems to be stuck out day 8 and beyond range now for several days. It really looks like there is going to be a lot of potential coming as week close out January but I would not have any excitement for this stuff until it solidly gets into the 120 hours range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nickysixes Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 JB seemed very confident about the extreme cold towards end of January:) http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-january-17-2015 The 00z ECMWF was cold and so is today's 12z run. The -30C contour at 850mb can be traced from just north of Lake Superior all the way back to Siberia and it's barreling toward the Great Lakes. Cross-polar flow FTW. The ensembles have been cold for quite awhile from what I've gathered from those who have access. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 next sunday's super clipper destroys I-80....puts down a narrow swath of around a foot. Detroit whiffed to the south, CMH wiffed to the north. yea, I know, it's an OP run 8 days out....don't need a reminder...just commentating the model run. All that aside, there is at least good agreement, (possibly the best agreement we've seen all season between models), of a strong clipper in the 7-8 day affecting the subforum. Which model run? Sounds awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Which model run? Sounds awesome. I would assume he is talking about the 12z Euro, takes a decent low from east central Iowa to Southern Ohio between 168h and 192h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 November was more anomalous, but come on lol. January has had more than twice the amount of snow November has, not to mention deeper snow, longer lasting snowcover, and more brutal cold. Depends on where you are? I suspect that in the northern burbs they had more snow in Nov via the lake. It probably isn't by much but still. Remember not everyone grades just on how long any amount of snow stays on the ground. As for future threats I am not bothering unless the threat is atleast inside of 120hrs and or day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Depends on where you are? I suspect that in the northern burbs they had more snow in Nov via the lake. It probably isn't by much but still. Remember not everyone grades just on how long any amount of snow stays on the ground. As for future threats I am not bothering unless the threat is atleast inside of 120hrs and or day 5. Yeah places along 69 got hit pretty good and the lake effect areas on the west side of the state had a great November. I do agree at least for myself it is the tracking of systems and the systems occurring that has my interest. I have no interest of how long we keep the snow unless it is a snow depth over 15" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Anybody have the PGFS aka new GFS verification stats? I think it has been horrible past 96hrs but would like to see the actual stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Yeah places along 69 got hit pretty good and the lake effect areas on the west side of the state had a great November. I do agree at least for myself it is the tracking of systems and the systems occurring that has my interest. I have no interest of how long we keep the snow unless it is a snow depth over 15"even here, where snow depth is nearly 3' right now, my keep standard would be 8". Yours is pretty high considering where you live. Basically, you don't care about snowpack? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Which model run? Sounds awesome. euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I'm so glad I got 1.5" on Xmas eve IMBY to prevent the first green/brown Xmas in a decade or so here. Then I lucked out and got 7.5" on the jan 3rd to 4th storm, then 3" on the clipper after it. Down to about 4" snowpack now after some melting and compacting the last few warm days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 November was more anomalous, but come on lol. January has had more than twice the amount of snow November has, not to mention deeper snow, longer lasting snowcover, and more brutal cold. Depends on where you are? I suspect that in the northern burbs they had more snow in Nov via the lake. It probably isn't by much but still. Remember not everyone grades just on how long any amount of snow stays on the ground. As for future threats I am not bothering unless the threat is atleast inside of 120hrs and or day 5. I agree Harry. It's not a silly notion at all in some areas to say that November had a more severe bout with winter, (relatively speaking) than January. Albeit much more brief. My memories of extreme winter this season go to the November shot first and foremost. I remember driving in blowing snow with temps in the low teens and near zero visibility during the peak of the Nov cold outbreak. January was colder and longer but relatively speaking November's extreme was more memorable and noteworthy than January's was....at least IMBY. Also, if you do not live in LES areas, and did not receive anything decent from the infamous ratio-bust clipper, you may very well have had more snow in November. I know this is true for parts of southern areas of OH, IN, and parts of KY. Hopefully next weekend we get a widespread...REAL clipper-hybrid with some gulf moisture involved. Although, like you said Harry, outside of 120 is nothing more than a joke only worth mentioning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Looks great!!!! 160 hours worth of flakes with all these clippers, with a grand total of 2" snowfall.. YEY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Depends on where you are? I suspect that in the northern burbs they had more snow in Nov via the lake. It probably isn't by much but still. Remember not everyone grades just on how long any amount of snow stays on the ground. As for future threats I am not bothering unless the threat is atleast inside of 120hrs and or day 5. Other than that extremely narrow band over over dmc that one day I doubt anyone had more snow in November than January. I totally know snowcover duration isnt everyones thing, but as for best month of winter, January has been WAY colder, had way more synoptic snowfalls, & deeper snow. Idk if Rainmans comment was tongue in cheek, but for Detroit its no contest. January has been far superior.Now SW MI may be a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 even here, where snow depth is nearly 3' right now, my keep standard would be 8". Yours is pretty high considering where you live. Basically, you don't care about snowpack? Pretty much. I only care about anomalous snow cover. Like last winter for example or after the blizzard of 99 and subsequent snow storm after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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