Thundersnow12 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 The 12z EPS control run was about as cold as it gets at the end of the month. Extremely impressive anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Brutal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Brutal is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 I wonder how much the lack of a snowpack will factor into temps if that cold outbreak comes to fruition. Assuming we don't get more than a nickel and dimer before then, most of us will have very little snow on the ground after the current thaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Resolution means the way the model computes large chunks of the atmosphere, the old gfs was 27km resolution and the new gfs is now 13km so basically it computes small details 2x better now, for instance the resolution upgrade makes it pick up on lake effect banding a lot better than the old gfs since that is a small area type thing, probably will do better at thunderstorms this spring as well with the better resolution. Thanks. That makes perfect sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Legit clipper parade on the 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Legit clipper parade on the 18z GFS lol...you aren't kidding...all the way through H240-ish it is just one after another Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Legit clipper parade on the 18z GFS Yeah even if I am tired of clippers I'd like that because it was nonstop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I wonder how much the lack of a snowpack will factor into temps if that cold outbreak comes to fruition. Assuming we don't get more than a nickel and dimer before then, most of us will have very little snow on the ground after the current thaw. Probably minimal. Number 1, there is still a snowpack in place from northern OH/IN on north....second of all you can almost guarentee there will be fresh snow added onto it (and probably in places further south that currently have no snowpack) from the NW flow parade before that cold gets here. Will it be a deep snowpack like last year? No. But there have certainly been some brutal cold snaps without deep snowpack in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Yeah even if I am tired of clippers I'd like that because it was nonstop. Yeah I'm all for it. Also, the end of the 18z GEFS control run is absolute insanity with regards to the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I wonder how much the lack of a snowpack will factor into temps if that cold outbreak comes to fruition. Assuming we don't get more than a nickel and dimer before then, most of us will have very little snow on the ground after the current thaw. In time the snowpack will build south as the cold air takes hold. The perid between January 1-January 12 should provide some example. Rinse. Repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Have no idea why my post was deleted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I wonder how much the lack of a snowpack will factor into temps if that cold outbreak comes to fruition. Assuming we don't get more than a nickel and dimer before then, most of us will have very little snow on the ground after the current thaw. It's not much different than most other years, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Yeah even if I am tired of clippers I'd like that because it was nonstop. Tired of clippers that don't drop much snow... Give me a 2-4 inch snow every 3rd day and I'm a happy camper. Gives us snowpack and gives the lake belts a dump. It's better than hovering about freezing for 3 weeks and then ending up on the wrong side of a Texas Hook. The usual scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Tired of clippers that don't drop much snow... Give me a 2-4 inch snow every 3rd day and I'm a happy camper. Uh isn't that what a clipper train does? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I read that article the other day. The main takeaway isn't that they'd come out faster, but that they can ingest much more data, thus better resolution and more accurate. Maybe someday they can catch the Euro. Would be nice. If the will/funding was there, I believe we could have a model that would outperform the ECMWF consistently. We are the USA for crying out loud. But I suppose that's a discussion for another place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 0z Euro and Canadian have better phases next Sunday/Monday and hence more snow for the Great Lakes. The trough on the ensembles in that timeframe (especially the Euro ensembles) has looked ripe for a good storm, and with no -NAO a storm would probably affect parts of our subforum if we can actually get a phase. But getting the phase has been tough so far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 It would be great if the western ridge retrogrades as a result of the rex block developing next week and opens up the storm track from the Gulf of Alaska into the western/central US. The 00z Euro shows this scenario beginning to unfold, although placing any confidence in it happening would be foolish. Probably more of a wishcast than anything at this point to get out of the NW flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Not sure if I believe the Euro solution from the 01/18 0z run at 240 hrs. It takes the PNA negative down to around -2, that's fairly strong and should pop a SE ridge and it really doesn't . The height contours at H5 over the SE US look almost zonal in nature. Whatever ridging there is seems to be in the south central lakes area. The surface contours looks like it wants to cut this system into the lakes area,but without much se ridging I'm having a hard believing it. I'm wondering if the -PNA is even real. I hope it is, because in this pattern a -PNA is our only real hope of seeing a block buster effecting the sub forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Not sure if I believe the Euro solution from the 01/18 0z run at 240 hrs. It takes the PNA negative down to around -2, that's fairly strong and should pop a SE ridge and it really doesn't . The height contours at H5 over the SE US look almost zonal in nature. Whatever ridging there is seems to be in the south central lakes area. The surface contours looks like it wants to cut this system into the lakes area,but without much se ridging I'm having a hard believing it. I'm wondering if the -PNA is even real. I hope it is, because in this pattern a -PNA is our only real hope of seeing a block buster effecting the sub forum. Just a FYI.. Blizz of 78, 79, 99, super clipper 05, GHD, and last Jan 5th ( this was almost neutral though ) came with the PNA on the + side. The one biggie that didn't was Jan 67.. It wasn't extremely positive ( close to neutral ) but was positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Clipper train this week has really sputtered out on the modeling. Only a day or two ago it looked like several shots of light accum chances throughout the week....that's fallen apart it seems. Next up is the 168-192 threat. I think without stronger clippers beforehand to drop the baroclinic zone further south, and if as OHweather brought up, it digs and phases more, we may end up with a warmer storm and it could end up rain for my neck of the woods. the beat goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Tired of clippers that don't drop much snow... Give me a 2-4 inch snow every 3rd day and I'm a happy camper. Gives us snowpack and gives the lake belts a dump. It's better than hovering about freezing for 3 weeks and then ending up on the wrong side of a Texas Hook. The usual scenario. lol... Uh isn't that what a clipper train does? That's what I thought... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Good thing indices seem to matter less this year..... those are about as bad of a set of collective signals as you can get for the long range. The epo will save us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Good thing indices seem to matter less this year..... those are about as bad of a set of collective signals as you can get for the long range. The epo will save us oops, might have spoken to quickly. JB just posted this and admitted, (he's not changing his forecast yet)but he is rattled by current models...specifically the horse he's been riding so hard....the epo and the ao. sorry to point out the garbage this morning....but let's face it, it's better to be pleasantly surprised than epically disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Not sure if I believe the Euro solution from the 01/18 0z run at 240 hrs. It takes the PNA negative down to around -2, that's fairly strong and should pop a SE ridge and it really doesn't . The height contours at H5 over the SE US look almost zonal in nature. Whatever ridging there is seems to be in the south central lakes area. The surface contours looks like it wants to cut this system into the lakes area,but without much se ridging I'm having a hard believing it. I'm wondering if the -PNA is even real. I hope it is, because in this pattern a -PNA is our only real hope of seeing a block buster effecting the sub forum. It has a neutral or +PNA a couple of days before day 10. It's not going to instantly pop a SE ridge just because a graph shows the PNA going negative. If you compare day 8 to day 10, you can see the ridge on the west coast retrograding, and the shortwave moving through the Plains would probably pop a SE ridge as soon as the storm over Nova Scotia gets out of the way. One issue is the ensembles don't appear to support the West Coast ridge retrograding as much, which would make this a moot point. oops, might have spoken to quickly. JB just posted this and admitted, (he's not changing his forecast yet)but he is rattled by current models...specifically the horse he's been riding so hard....the epo and the ao. sorry to point out the garbage this morning....but let's face it, it's better to be pleasantly surprised than epically disappointed. Of course JB is rattled by one "warmer" run of the models. The models have been rather persistent in the -EPO idea for several days, so unless the 12z ensembles continue to loose it I won't panic yet. The 0z ensembles were still chilly in the extended, and if anything wouldn't cause as much suppression with the somewhat weaker -EPO (the -WPO still looks very strong on both ensembles). It's been a rough winter so far, although one thing that's worked pretty well is popping a nice -EPO and getting cold as soon as the MJO hits phase 7 or better...worked in November, late December, and hopefully now too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Well the modeling of Tuesday's clipper has really stunk. The 12z NAM still hangs on to a transient fgen band in the LP, so maybe there is some potential still hiding in there somewhere, but I give up. Hopefully we can produce a good cyclone or two as the late Jan/early Feb cold push makes its way into the US. November couldn't possibly end up being the best month of the entire winter could it..? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Well the modeling of Tuesday's clipper has really stunk. The 12z NAM still hangs on to a transient fgen band in the LP, so maybe there is some potential still hiding in there somewhere, but I give up. Hopefully we can produce a good cyclone or two as the late Jan/early Feb cold push makes its way into the US. November couldn't possibly end up being the best month of the entire winter could it..? It sure has been a boring winter, hasn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Well the modeling of Tuesday's clipper has really stunk. The 12z NAM still hangs on to a transient fgen band in the LP, so maybe there is some potential still hiding in there somewhere, but I give up. Hopefully we can produce a good cyclone or two as the late Jan/early Feb cold push makes its way into the US. November couldn't possibly end up being the best month of the entire winter could it..? I wonder if this is what's missing. It has that feel that nothing is really shaking up the pattern so it gets stale, especially with the foggy indice signals. One massive phase job comes together and we get a powerhouse cutter and we could be off to the races, post 01/28/78 style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 It's like pulling teeth to get a winter storm this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Of course JB is rattled by one "warmer" run of the models. The models have been rather persistent in the -EPO idea for several days, so unless the 12z ensembles continue to loose it I won't panic yet. The 0z ensembles were still chilly in the extended, and if anything wouldn't cause as much suppression with the somewhat weaker -EPO (the -WPO still looks very strong on both ensembles). It's been a rough winter so far, although one thing that's worked pretty well is popping a nice -EPO and getting cold as soon as the MJO hits phase 7 or better...worked in November, late December, and hopefully now too. true, however the fact that he actually posted that thought is somewhat unusual....especially since he preaches about how you shouldn't give credence to 1 or 2 model runs. He might be laying some ground work to build an emergency exit...just in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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