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Winter 2014/15 Med/Long Range Discussion Part 3


Chicago Storm

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As deep as the cold was entrenched in the area I would expect spring to start with a flip of the switch. I can see the cold lingering much longer than most want it to given the ice conditions of the lakes and surrounding lands. I am looking forward to some 50°f weather but not hanging up my shovel just yet.

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That deep D7 southern stream trough is intriguing. Too bad we're entering this split flow pattern. Nothing really to phase with it so wintry potential is minimized.

 

edit: more like snowfall potential is minimized. Might me an icing threat.

 

 

Those closed off systems can occasionally produce nicely though, as the extremely cold temps aloft make up for the somewhat warm/marginal temps near the surface.

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Models are starting to show something interesting regarding the teleconnections. A + PNA , -EPO , -AO and  -NAO setting up after March 15th.  Looks like cold east of the Mississippi.  Not sure where the eastern edge of the +PNA will set up.  Could be that we end up slightly above normal here at MSP and ORD slightly below normal.

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Have seen that phenomenon dump snow on the OV or the Plains. Never more than a slushy inch or two here though from what I can recall.

 

A recent example was Feb. 26th, 2013. That was the closest to a pasting-type snowfall (where it's so wet that it sticks on and covers everything) we've had in a long time.

 

It did dump 6"+ in parts of the state NW of the city, but only 2-4" locally.

 

Another example was November 30th, 2011, or the best snowstorm of the 2011-2012 season. Produced nearly a foot of pasting-type snow across parts of Northern Indiana and Western MI. 

 

These types of snowstorms are fairly rare, but they have occurred.

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A recent example was Feb. 26th, 2013. That was the closest to a pasting-type snowfall (where it's so wet that it sticks on and covers everything) we've had in a long time.

 

It did dump 6"+ in parts of the state NW of the city, but only 2-4" locally.

 

Another example was November 30th, 2011, or the best snowstorm of the 2011-2012 season. Produced nearly a foot of pasting-type snow across parts of Northern Indiana and Western MI. 

 

These types of snowstorms are fairly rare, but they have occurred.

 

Yeah, I recall the Feb 2013 storm. It was a marginal one, but not really what I was thinking of. I was thinking of those cutoffs that generate their own cold under the upper level system, where you have +SN falling there with rain to the north. I don't ever recall being impacted by one of those to any significance.

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GFS wants to screw us out of the warmup later in the week...sort of...by maintaining low level trajectories from the surface high longer.  Temps would still be mild and warmer than we've seen in quite a while but between that and that approaching southern system toward the weekend, wouldn't realize the full warming potential. 

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00z ECMWF Ensemble had a very warm look early next week. Control run had 500 mb heights of 582 dm up to southern IL on Monday 3/17. Mean not quite as impressive, but continues to show a signal for a return of -EPO/+PNA after that.

Edit: That was the control run.

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It's spring.  I was hoping this thread could take a rest.  

You should see the NE forum - they currently have about 5 winter threads going at the same time...no mention of Spring at all.  Post after post about how long they can retain snowcover.  Not many winter weenies in here can hold a candle to that...although I do my best.  :)

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You should see the NE forum - they currently have about 5 winter threads going at the same time...no mention of Spring at all.  Post after post about how long they can retain snowcover.  Not many winter weenies in here can hold a candle to that...although I do my best.  :)

Those coastal folks don't know how brutal winter really can be.

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You should see the NE forum - they currently have about 5 winter threads going at the same time...no mention of Spring at all.  Post after post about how long they can retain snowcover.  Not many winter weenies in here can hold a candle to that...although I do my best.  :)

Those people are lunatics though...

 

As for this thread, it needs to die.

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You should see the NE forum - they currently have about 5 winter threads going at the same time...no mention of Spring at all.  Post after post about how long they can retain snowcover.  Not many winter weenies in here can hold a candle to that...although I do my best.  :)

 

Might be only 4-5 of us in here that can be considered true hardcore winter lovers. :)

 

Anyways, to keep the thread moving in its intended direction...looks like post St. Patrick's Day goes back to a below normal pattern for awhile. Hopefully there's a few shots at some snow before it's really done for the season.

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Might be only 4-5 of us in here that can be considered true hardcore winter lovers. :)

 

Anyways, to keep the thread moving in its intended direction...looks like post St. Patrick's Day goes back to a below normal pattern for awhile. Hopefully there's a few shots at some snow before it's really done for the season.

I love Winter and snow to the point of obsession.  Nothing is better to me than a Dec/Jan day when the sun angle is low and the smell of chimney smoke is in the air and that steely grey sky before it snows, but to root for that when the sun angle looks like September and the season is clearly changing, goes against my instincts. Fall/Winter will always trump Spring/Summer to me, but damn Spring and Summer is so sweet.  I guess that's why I moved to one of the snowiest areas east of the Rockies. I never got my fill of Winter before, and then boom it was time for Spring. But when you live somewhere that  you get satisfied by your love of Winter, it's so much easier to move on, in fact you're even ready.... 'til next year !!

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I love Winter and snow to the point of obsession.  Nothing is better to me than a Dec/Jan day when the sun angle is low and the smell of chimney smoke is in the air and that steely grey sky before it snows, but to root for that when the sun angle looks like September and the season is clearly changing, goes against my instincts. Fall/Winter will always trump Spring/Summer to me, but damn Spring and Summer is so sweet.  I guess that's why I moved to one of the snowiest areas east of the Rockies. I never got my fill of Winter before, and then boom it was time for Spring. But when you live somewhere that  you get satisfied by your love of Winter, it's so much easier to move on, in fact you're even ready.... 'til next year !!

 

Right on. My post wasn't a shot at anyone, to be clear. Everyone has their own thing, which is cool. But most aren't into the extremes in winter (super cold, super snow)...and especially as enter met Spring. Totally understandable. 

 

But yeah, maybe if I lived where you live now, I'd take on your opinion. Alas, I pretty much live where you used to...thus I hold on to the bitter end, even if it's not realistic. What can I say, I'm a dumb winter loving weenie. :D

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Right on. My post wasn't a shot at anyone, to be clear. Everyone has their own thing, which is cool. But most aren't into the extremes in winter (super cold, super snow)...and especially as enter met Spring. Totally understandable. 

 

But yeah, maybe if I lived where you live now, I'd take on your opinion. Alas, I pretty much live where you used to...thus I hold on to the bitter end, even if it's not realistic. What can I say, I'm a dumb winter loving weenie. :D

hey... much respect! :)

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I love winter as its my second favorite season outside of Summer. From Nov 1st to mid March I cheer for snowfall. I start getting the itch for warmer weather around late Feb. I thought I was as diehard a snow lover as you can get but man the New England forum takes the cake! They are hoping their snowcover stays on the ground until June! I've had 20+ inches of snow on the ground for over 2 months and it just do much for me here. I am an avid outdoorist and enjoy being outside as much as possible no matter what the season. I go to the beach in summer, play beach volleyball, tennis, soccer, golf in the summer and enjoy skiing, boarding, cross country, or going for walks in insane Lake effects which is my favorite. Unless their are records to be broken I say in mid March bring on the warm and sun. I wish we could skip spring though. I love the heat and humidity.

 

On topic it looks like the below normal temperatures return next week.

 

610temp.new.gif

 

814temp.new.gif

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No one likes snow more then Josh aka michigansnowfreak. I would put him up against anyone in the NE forum. He would gladly be ok with snow on the ground year around.

 

He's in my top 5 for sure. I'm with him though, snow in July would be awesome.  :snowman:   :fever:   :D

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