Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Canadian Weather Network calling for a cold spring. Looks like it could be mid April before we get some steady 50s. That's not all that unusual though. I think many people pine for a March like 2012 even though that was a disaster for the fruit trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 The weeklies came in cold...Unfortunately, not looking good for fundamental pattern change. I see mostly average through the last half of the month on the mean, maybe a degree below normal at most. Not exactly cold in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 I see mostly average through the last half of the month on the mean, maybe a degree below normal at most. Not exactly cold in my book. Not cold, but cool. Was really hoping for a change from below average temps to above average to make up for the negative temperature departure anomaly so far this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 For future reference, it would help to specify which weeklies are being talked about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 For future reference, it would help to specify which weeklies are being talked about. Mine was the Euro weeklies. I didn't even know the CFS had weeklies as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 0z brought the system back. Looked colder too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 that thing that lifts out of the gulf on the 6z gfs next weekend is wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 getting better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Is it me or did the 06Z GFS run look much cooler ?? The "Thing" reminds me of a head on collision with a cold front and a storm cloud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Is it me or did the 06Z GFS run look much cooler ?? The "Thing" reminds me of a head on collision with a cold front and a storm cloud. Its off on its own little island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 super wet gulf system lifting north again the 12z, KY might be in trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 super wet gulf system lifting north again the 12z, KY might be in trouble We're in trouble. GFS showing widespread 1-3 inch rainfall totals. So much for a drought in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 The 12z GFS ruins the warmup next week with a backdoor cold front on Wednesday afternoon. That sort of front would impact the lakeshore most significantly but the cold dense airmass over the lake would easily push inland. Southeast winds on Thursday would keep things chilly in northeast IL. 00z Euro had the front but not til Wednesday night and looks like the 12z GEM keeps southwest winds in place throughout Wednesday. Something to watch. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 super wet gulf system lifting north again the 12z, KY might be in trouble Nice cutoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 You know its a cold winter when... Precip is below normal on the year yet the spring flood risk is greater than normal. The snowpack around here has well over 2" of water. A slow warm-up might be good to reduce flood potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Ensembles say will flip right back to the garbage pattern day 10-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Ensembles say will flip right back to the garbage pattern day 10-15 Its been a very enjoyable winter here, so if i would get mild and stay mild Id be more than content. After all, it IS time. But if its not going to last, Id rather just stay entrenched in deep winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Its been a very enjoyable winter here, so if i would get mild and stay mild Id be more than content. After all, it IS time. But if its not going to last, Id rather just stay entrenched in deep winter. I'm ok with it turning below normal for a time, but only if it's active. Once again better looking for the East Coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Yep, that's a pretty intense slug of gulf moisture aiming for the OV and Midwest for next weekend showing up on several GFS runs at this time. If it holds and is matched by other models there could be serious flooding issues and maybe the first svr wx risk for certain areas. Of course with early systems we always worry about instability issues and it is a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Yep, that's a pretty intense slug of gulf moisture aiming for the OV and Midwest for next weekend showing up on several GFS runs at this time. If it holds and is matched by other models there could be serious flooding issues and maybe the first svr wx risk for certain areas. Of course with early systems we always worry about instability issues and it is a week out. I'm not really seeing it. In fact, I don't really see anything favorable for any notable severe weather for the balance of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 I'll defer to Andy's svr wx expertise. But I do hope a pattern change occurs soon. And when I attended spotter training recently the met reminded us that spring was relatively cool 50 yrs ago just before the April 11 Palm Sunday outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 I'm not really seeing it. In fact, I don't really see anything favorable for any notable severe weather for the balance of March.The mid/upper pattern on the 12z Euro ENS toward the end of the run was pretty much the opposite of what you would want to have any hope of a more favorable pattern for severe wx later in the month into April. Pretty strong agreement in a higher amplitude MJO wave through phase 7 into phase 8 by about March 20th. Phase 8 in MAM is basically a repeat of the +PNA that dominated February. Based on the temperature composites, if the current forecasts verify and the MJO can actually propagate all the way into phase 2-3, that might be more supportive of getting troughing into the west/-PNA by April, but that's a huge if. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 I'm not really seeing it. In fact, I don't really see anything favorable for any notable severe weather for the balance of March. 3 1/2 weeks left in the month is a pretty long time, but given the look on various long range products, you could very well be right. Though there have been March outbreaks, it's kind of early to expect something this time of year, especially once you get north of I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 3 1/2 weeks left in the month is a pretty long time, but given the look on various long range products, you could very well be right. Though there have been March outbreaks, it's kind of early to expect something this time of year, especially once you get north of I-80. Severe is dead for March. Ensembles are in cahoots on that scenario. Hope for better times starting sometime in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Severe is dead for March. Ensembles are in cahoots on that scenario. Hope for better times starting sometime in April. Hard to be optimistic, no doubt, and if you had to place your bets that would be the smart way to go. The reason I'm reluctant to completely shut the door is that every once in a while you can get a one-off in an otherwise unfavorable pattern. A recent, rather extreme example of this is 11/17/2013. Couldn't buy a severe report that month and then bang. Got pretty quiet again after that for the rest of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Hard to be optimistic, no doubt, and if you had to place your bets that would be the smart way to go. The reason I'm reluctant to completely shut the door is that every once in a while you can get a one-off in an otherwise unfavorable pattern. A recent, rather extreme example of this is 11/17/2013. Couldn't buy a severe report that month and then bang. Got pretty quiet again after that for the rest of the month. Sure enough. But, our chances at frozen are better than severe in the last 1/3 of March into early April. Not that either are great at this point...just IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Sure enough. But, our chances at frozen are better than severe in the last 1/3 of March into early April. Not that either are great at this point...just IMO. IMO, we probably haven't seen our last snow. Assuming we go back into a colder pattern later this month, then it's not at all unrealistic to think we could get something frozen. It's late March, not late May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 IMO, we probably haven't seen our last snow. Assuming we go back into a colder pattern later this month, then it's not at all unrealistic to think we could get something frozen. It's late March, not late May. Yep, agreed. Certainly is not unheard for us to see something in late March/early April. Though, a late March 2013 type of a storm is probably a long shot, looking at the modeled pattern...but one never knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Yep, agreed. Certainly is not unheard for us to see something in late March/early April. Though, a late March 2013 type of a storm is probably a long shot, looking at the modeled pattern...but one never knows. I think we're at the point where our interests start to diverge. For me, anything less than 6" can go home. We're not in the midst of a record breaking snow situation like last winter. While it would be kinda cool to notch another 40" season, I don't want it that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 I think we're at the point where our interests start to diverge. For me, anything less than 6" can go home. We're not in the midst of a record breaking snow situation like last winter. While it would be kinda cool to notch another 40" season, I don't want it that much. I understand. We had our fun last winter...chasing/breaking records. Once in a lifetime for the LAF. But, I never give up on wintry possibilities, until the bitter end. Just how I'm wired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.