Chicago Storm Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 Probably will be April before we melt through the glacier here unless we get some prolonged 50's-60's at some point and 0 additional snow. Snow is easy to melt at this time of year. There was melting occurring with highs in the single digits and teens over the last 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Absolutely no science to back this up but I have a bad feeling we haven't seen the last of winter after this week. It could easily fall right back into the ridge west, trough east pattern later in the month and into April. I think that's what Bastardi is suggesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 All FWIW, but EPS/GEFS in pretty good agreement on a mid-month warm up. Thereafter, it goes back cool. Yesterday's weeklies for week 4 were rather chilly. Bottom line, boys crying for their momma's get a little relief for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 All FWIW, but EPS/GEFS in pretty good agreement on a mid-month warm up. Thereafter, it goes back cool. Yesterday's weeklies for week 4 were rather chilly. Bottom line, boys crying for their momma's get a little relief for awhile. I guess, cool > rather chilly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I guess, cool > rather chilly Can't hurt that the snowpack upstream is going to take a huge hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I guess, cool > rather chilly Sure. Weeklies for as along of a lead as it is, were probably more like cold rather than cool for week 4. But they certainly haven't been stellar this winter. We'll see. Enjoy the mild up while it lasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Our COD site should have live later today, the CFS out to 798hrs, run 4x a day with 6hr maps for: 500mb height/winds 850mb temperatures SBCAPE Supercell composite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Our COD site should have live later today, the CFS out to 798hrs, run 4x a day with 6hr maps for: 500mb height/winds 850mb temperatures SBCAPE Supercell composite. 33 days and 6 hours...cool. Can't wait to see if it's showing any good severe setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Probably will be April before we melt through the glacier here unless we get some prolonged 50's-60's at some point and 0 additional snow.snowbanks for sure but im sure we will lose the snowpack. Although....depending how it plays out it could be where the shaded areas have snow long after sunny spots do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 33 days and 6 hours...cool. Can't wait to see if it's showing any good severe setups. Yeah will be nice to have as another forecast tool for the mid-long range even though it tends to sway sometimes, as well as see fantasy severe setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 warmup on the 12z GFS isn't a torch or anything but it looks relatively long lived Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 warmup on the 12z GFS isn't a torch or anything but it looks relatively long lived JB hell bent on cold/stormy March 20th-April 10th, we will see. Does look like a nice warm up on the way before that period though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 All FWIW, but EPS/GEFS in pretty good agreement on a mid-month warm up. Thereafter, it goes back cool. Yesterday's weeklies for week 4 were rather chilly. Bottom line, boys crying for their momma's get a little relief for awhile. I keep reading that week 4 is chilly on the weeklies, but I don't see what people are seeing, it averages out to average for that week. The main key is the cool and warmth at that range was transient. Of course this is week 4 on the weeklies which tend to be dart board mode by that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 JB hell bent on cold/stormy March 20th-April 10th, we will see. Does look like a nice warm up on the way before that period though. going back to cold is a cheap/easy call given the long term persistence of that pattern, especially from a weenie like JB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Snow is easy to melt at this time of year. There was melting occurring with highs in the single digits and teens over the last 2 weeks. Yep, there sure was. As long as the sun is out it does an impressive job even in extreme cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 not impressive but a fairly broad area of mild air, should destroy most of the region's snowpack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 not impressive but a fairly broad area of mild air, should destroy most of the region's snowpack 850 mb anomalies are pretty sizable in the northern tier at that time...but, 10 days out so we'll see if the magnitude holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 JB hell bent on cold/stormy March 20th-April 10th, we will see. Does look like a nice warm up on the way before that period though. going back to cold is a cheap/easy call given the long term persistence of that pattern, especially from a weenie like JB He seems to think it'll be a false spring. Hope he's wrong. While I don't want a March 2012, I could so with some temperatures in the low 40s with sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 850 mb anomalies are pretty sizable in the northern tier at that time...but, 10 days out so we'll see if the magnitude holds ecmwf_T850a_us_11.png I'd take a full blown torch right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Once we get this snow melted off by next week the temps will have little problem overachieving with the intensifying March sun. Seems to happen that way every spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Really looking forward to the spring conditions coming next week, but aside from the warmer temps the pattern looks about as awful as you can get for meaningful weather to track. The mets at SPC are probably bored to tears at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 cold air source region gets murdered, should be the end of deep cold for this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 cold air source region gets murdered, should be the end of deep cold for this season Its time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 screw the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 12z GFS says not so fast at ~200 hours. Ehh euro says no way to gfs. So does ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 screw the GFS Ggem same as euro maybe more extreme actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 12z GFS says not so fast at ~200 hours. Wouldn't be the first time a long range warmup got muted/shortened. Some of its ensembles also have similar solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 0z Euro continues the mild look and wants to unleash some nice mild air beyond 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Atlantic might end up muting the warm up the further east you go. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 GFS ensembles slowly backing towards the Euro ensembles for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.