buckeye Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Got 'em right where we want 'em! Lol @ buckeye with his obsession of wx bell maps. nervously lol at your obsession with me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 There are probably better ways to forecast a clipper 4-5 days out than to post model snow output maps with no analysis. The wave interaction at 500mb on the ECMWF over the upper missisppi valley and western great lakes looks good and the potential for strong interaction is very good, imo. It may or may not pan out, but the potential for a very good clipper exists across a good chunk of Lower Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Only so many ways to get to 13.7". It could get worse...you could be sitting on like 35" at the end of winter with your biggest event being 3". win some, you lose some maybe i'm just getting old Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Lol @ buckeye with his obsession of wx bell maps.weatherbell is 10-1 ratio. Which clippers arent. In this case its a good snow qpf map so to speak lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 There are probably better ways to forecast a clipper 4-5 days out than to post model snow output maps with no analysis. The wave interaction at 500mb on the ECMWF over the upper missisppi valley and western great lakes looks good and the potential for strong interaction is very good, imo. It may or may not pan out, but the potential for a very good clipper exists across a good chunk of Lower Michigan. fair enough. First let's look at the winter so far. Can you name one 'surprise' event that was under-modeled snow-wise this winter? I can't, but I do think it's fair to weigh in past trends when predicting future events. Second attached is the 500 map. How can that first clipper go too crazy with the second one on it's heels, and wouldn't the first one kill the ridging in front of the second one, hurting it's chances of digging too? I'm asking, not being a smartass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 The afternoon disco from MPX discusses at length the current stratus deck that stretches the entire state of MN. A full paragraph devoted to clouds without precip. Talk about nothing to discuss in the short/medium/long term. Cripes almighty. Lol, this is great - perfectly sums things up Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 1-3" with isolated 4" expectations has been working well for us so far. So I think it's a pretty safe to go with that trend and expect the same from this upcoming clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 fair enough. First let's look at the winter so far. Can you name one 'surprise' event that was under-modeled snow-wise this winter? I can't, but I do think it's fair to weigh in past trends when predicting future events. Second attached is the 500 map. How can that first clipper go too crazy with the second one on it's heels, and wouldn't the first one kill the ridging in front of the second one, hurting it's chances of digging too? I'm asking, not being a smartass. I have no idea how you can make sense of anything use that awful map, but I never said it would go crazy, so there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 garbage Not sure why you think that's garbage other than perhaps your trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Definitely watching the midweek clipper. Euro had about 0.25" qpf and GEM more like 0.30"+ Id say, along with the GFS going back and forth strength-wise on it. Jan 1, 2008 and Jan 22, 2005. Talk about a nightmare and a sweet dream in the same sentence. 2008 was killer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I have no idea how you can make sense of anything use that awful map, but I never said it would go crazy, so there's that. experience Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Not sure why you think that's garbage other than perhaps your trolling. It's better than a big red blob overhead. We can catch clippers from that flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 It's better than a big red blob overhead. We can catch clippers from that flow. The Clipper train is looking pretty good for most of MI on the latest model runs for the next week+, should keep the snowpack fluffed up. Maybe somebody catches 4" from one of them being in the right spot at the right time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 garbage Then what exactly are you looking for though in an 8-10 day mean? Draw up your dream prog then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Then what exactly are you looking for though in an 8-10 day mean? Draw up your dream prog then. You really have to ask? Probably either a big torch or the 2nd coming of GHD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 The Clipper train is looking pretty good for most of MI on the latest model runs for the next week+, should keep the snowpack fluffed up. Maybe somebody catches 4" from one of them being in the right spot at the right time I suspect each clipper will track further and further southwest as the cold becomes entrenched. A little joy for everyone in the sub forum. Of course, MI will do well with Lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 As we transition into the last week of January the models have shifted on the teleconnection indices as shown by the AMWX model page. The -EPO ridge is gone, the -NAO blocking is gone, and the only thing left is the positive PNA and only until about Jan 24th. At which point most of the models would suggest a neutral PNA with the exception of the ECMWF which goes strongly negative. If that data is right I would think a SE US ridge would pop. If that is right we could go from tracking temps to tracking storms. Don't write off winter yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 I suspect each clipper will track further and further southwest as the cold becomes entrenched. A little joy for everyone in the sub forum. Of course, MI will do well with Lake effect. This. Even though they may be moisture starved for the most part, if we can get 3 or 4 clippers with each one digging more than the previous, everyone could end up a few inches. Maybe not exciting, but at least the flakes will be flying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 As we transition into the last week of January the models have shifted on the teleconnection indices as shown by the AMWX model page. The -EPO ridge is gone, the -NAO blocking is gone, and the only thing left is the positive PNA and only until about Jan 24th. At which point most of the models would suggest a neutral PNA with the exception of the ECMWF which goes strongly negative. If that data is right I would think a SE US ridge would pop. If that is right we could go from tracking temps to tracking storms. Don't write off winter yet. Meh, with those type of teleconnections, the only area that would have a decent shot at seeing big snowstorms is from your backyard (MSP/Duluth) over to weatherbo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 As we transition into the last week of January the models have shifted on the teleconnection indices as shown by the AMWX model page. The -EPO ridge is gone, the -NAO blocking is gone, and the only thing left is the positive PNA and only until about Jan 24th. At which point most of the models would suggest a neutral PNA with the exception of the ECMWF which goes strongly negative. If that data is right I would think a SE US ridge would pop. If that is right we could go from tracking temps to tracking storms. Don't write off winter yet. Huh? But yeah the -nao is gone which is fine by me.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 But the epo was progged at -2 or -3 a few days ago...and now it's only progged to drop to -1. So, it's reasonable to say the -epo is gone. Of course it could reappear again in future runs...we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 But the epo was progged at -2 or -3 a few days ago...and now it's only progged to drop to -1. So, it's reasonable to say the -epo is gone. Of course it could reappear again in future runs...we'll see. That above is actually better then the 00z was last night. problem with -2 and below is our storm chances go down other then clippers ofcourse.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Meh, with those type of teleconnections, the only area that would have a decent shot at seeing big snowstorms is from your backyard (MSP/Duluth) over to weatherbo... Please tell me your not serious. First of all, enough cold air could settle over us to drive the first storm to our south, even by a couple of hundred of miles. At any rate once one area gets a good snow fall, the next one will likely be further south following baro zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Please tell me your not serious. First of all, enough cold air could settle over us to drive the first storm to our south, even by a couple of hundred of miles. At any rate once one area gets a good snow fall, the next one will likely be further south following baro zone. It would be hard to hang onto though IF we did have a +EPO, +NAO/+AO/+PNA... Granted your area wouldn't fare much better either. Those 4 combined like that is a torch signal which would even include alot of Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Huh? chart(1).jpeg But yeah the -nao is gone which is fine by me.. It seem to me that the two sites disagree. I would like to see what that site showed 36 hrs ago for the EPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 It seem to me that the two sites disagree. I would like to see what that site showed 36 hrs ago for the EPO Does their chart plot all of the models like that? Biggest change from 36hrs ago is with the GFS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 It would be hard to hang onto though IF we did have a +EPO, +NAO/+AO/+PNA... Granted your area wouldn't fare much better either. Those 4 combined like that is a torch signal which would even include alot of Canada. i doubt that we will get Positive EPO and Positive PNA with the warm sea surface temps that we are seeing near the west coast, it will likely be one or the other, best guess is that we see -PNA develop which would be good for most of this sub form. Question is how strong of SE ridge will we see? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Does their chart plot all of the models like that? Biggest change from 36hrs ago is with the GFS.. Yes they do, the biggest change was that all indices except for the new OP GFS showed a -NAO, now all gone to neutral, and all had shown a strong EPO, now they have also gone to neutral Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 i doubt that we will get Positive EPO and Positive PNA with the warm sea surface temps that we are seeing near the west coast, it will likely be one or the other, best guess is that we see -PNA develop which would be good for most of this sub form. Question is how strong of SE ridge will we see? Without a -NAO it would depend on the epo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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