buckeye Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 gfs sets the gradient pattern south of all of us with reinforcing high pressure and a wet subtropical jet.... Snow totals thru 240 hours are like 2-3' across MO, KY, WV, and VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Whoever started the super bowl storm can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I've noticed a change in the EPO advertised in the teleconnections... Would this equate to the end of the acrtic outbreaks ?? Perhaps a warmer gulf influence in storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 DOUBLE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I've noticed a change in the EPO advertised in the teleconnections... Would this equate to the end of the acrtic outbreaks ?? Perhaps a warmer gulf influence in storms. Would not be surprised if this is just a relaxation for beginning of March and we go back to a -EPO (considering the Pacific Ocean temps) but a decent pattern change would be nice as it has to change eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 DOUBLE You're making my wife jealous!! Now that is some incredible porn there!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 DOUBLE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 yea /\ those 6-10 day bulls eyes have been working out well for Columbus. We probably have had more digital snow then anyone here in the last 3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Would not be surprised if this is just a relaxation for beginning of March and we go back to a -EPO (considering the Pacific Ocean temps) but a decent pattern change would be nice as it has to change eventually. Can we really go another year with this overall cold pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 yea / those 6-10 day bulls eyes have been working out well for Columbus. We probably have had more digital snow then anyone here in the last 3 weeks. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinois Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Can we really go another year with this overall cold pattern? I would think the way things are lining up we could see another coolish summer. Seems to be a running theme the last 18 months. El Niño coming on and the atmosphere beginning to behave like an El Niño. Solid ice cover on the lakes. If we can get a wet pattern going I would think that seals the deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Can we really go another year with this overall cold pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 NAEFS seems to show a moderation in temps after Feb ends...we shall see. Looks like this area stays a snow hole... been pathetic around here for snowfall..the snow is so ugly and skanky. Crusty hard and brown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I want some of what the GFS is smoking. 2 feet+ across the deep south. Gotta love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinois Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Both 77 and 87 had continuation of a el ninoesque pattern and it was hot springs and first half of summers. 2003 did as well was cool and wet(except for the end of August).We haven't really seen an El Niño type pattern up until recently. The atmosphere has been more typical of La Niña. I would bet we see a progression similar to 82 or 09. Basing that a lot o. The idea of the El Niño ramping up in the early part of the year. Like I said I would be more comfortable with that call if we see a wetter pattern establish in the Midwest and mid south in the next six weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 absolutely brutal looking long range worst of the winter by far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 CPC is calling for drought development in the upper Midwest on the newest outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 CPC is calling for drought development in the upper Midwest on the newest outlook season_drought.png That area normally has a decent snowpack melting in spring to aid in moisture. They may really be in trouble later in the season as well as some areas east and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 That area normally has a decent snowpack melting in spring to aid in moisture. They may really be in trouble later in the season as well as some areas east and south. Hopefully we can get some snowstorms this spring (I think we will) in the UP, northern lower and northern WI ... I don't like to see those areas go into a drought. One that note I believe we are going to see some bigger storm systems in March. Models are hinting at a better PAC ridge position. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 That area normally has a decent snowpack melting in spring to aid in moisture. They may really be in trouble later in the season as well as some areas east and south. The relentless NW flow of dry air has already caused major damage to the soil used for farming in central and northern MN. The good soil is blown away due to a lack of snow cover. Add in some potential dry conditions in early spring and its a disaster unfolding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Models weaken the +PNA in the medium-long range and develop a -PNA/neutral EPO weather pattern as seen below. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/ What does this mean? Well instead of an Aleutian Low we develop an Aleutian High and, with the EPO block centered over the Aleutian Islands/western Alaska instead of Eastern Alaska/Yukon, this will push the coldest anomalies further West and build up a weak SE ridge in the East. This is very indicative of a La Nina pattern as opposed to an El Nino pattern. This may increase storm possibilities for the region, i'm not betting on it given the way this Winter has gone so far, but with spring right on our doorstep, its likely. With the +PNA modeled to break down, the PNW will finally get into a more active/cool weather pattern and this will mean more storms crashing onto the West Coast and making there way East after landfall. The AO/NAO look to remain positive for the foreseeable future, so the idea of any help from the Atlantic doesn't seem likely. This continuing progressive flow thanks to the strong -EPO block has been a recurring theme now for two Winters. Without any Atlantic blocking, the chances of a good phased storm diminish and all were left with is maybe a partial phase at the most. One can hope the -PNA continues for a while so we can cool the PDO region down a bit. A +PDO is another downside for our region. Just my 2 cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The relentless NW flow of dry air has already caused major damage to the soil used for farming in central and northern MN. The good soil is blown away due to a lack of snow cover. Add in some potential dry conditions in early spring and its a disaster unfolding. That's been a concern of mine as well. In addition, if this dry pattern continues the fire danger will be very high, both for grass fires and forest fires further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Medium range is looking like a snooze fest. Good chance 99% of Feb snowfall for northwest IL/eastern IA came with the Feb 1st storm lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Medium range is looking like a snooze fest. Good chance 99% of Feb snowfall for northwest IL/eastern IA came with the Feb 1st storm lol. agree but i'm seeing some signs we enter a more active or at least different pattern as we enter march...wouldn't be shocked if it's just another mirage and we repeat another month of dry NW flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 agree but i'm seeing some signs we enter a more active or at least different pattern as we enter march...wouldn't be shocked if it's just another mirage and we repeat another month of dry NW flow Yeah, it seems each day we see signs of a more active SE Ridge and the trough breaking down in the long range on the GFS Ensembles, but as we get closer, it becomes a mirage. A couple of the ensembles this morning (0z) looked interesting in the 7-10 day range so perhaps we could get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 As the +PNA block weakens, this will shift the trough further West and allow for a small ridge to develop in the SE (SE ridge). This may increase the possibilities of more storminess in the region, but we'll see. The potential exists for a storm around Feb 27-March 1. The GFS depicts this with the shortwave dropping in from the north and digging south into the Gulf and gathering moisture. Will March come in like a Lion? Lets see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Endless days of bitter cold, dry, and black snow cover. Brutal. And nothing changes for the foreseeable future. Is this what North Dakota is like in mid winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Worst Climo© Tonight A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 15. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Sunday A 20 percent chance of snow showers after 1pm. Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 19. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Sunday Night A chance of flurries. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -6. Wind chill values as low as -15. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Monday Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near 8. West wind 5 to 10 mph. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around -2. Tuesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 22. Breezy. Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12. Wednesday Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 19. Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around -4. Thursday Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 13. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around -4. Friday Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Worst Climo© Tonight A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 15. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Sunday A 20 percent chance of snow showers after 1pm. Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 19. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Sunday Night A chance of flurries. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -6. Wind chill values as low as -15. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Monday Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near 8. West wind 5 to 10 mph. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around -2. Tuesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 22. Breezy. Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12. Wednesday Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 19. Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around -4. Thursday Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 13. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around -4. Friday Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near 16. Got to Tuesday night and then my eyes started to melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Looks like 12z Euro trying to cook something big up for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.