Stebo Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 yeah that's a decent signal at this range. The 12z Euro was a little better but still south of here. euro 28.png I find it interesting with such a strong high to the east the system just barrels right into it versus heading northeast some as there is a weakness in the high pressure field north of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 If this cold is as lasting as some are saying we may have back-to-back winters with top 5 longest stretches of continuous snowcover on record (last year was #2 for consecutive 1"+ days, #1 for total 1"+ days). Lansing started their streak on Jan 5th..... So that's almost 5 weeks. 7 Weeks looks like an almost lock. Amazing that Lansing managed only a single day with a measurable depth in Dec.... A single T recording. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I find it interesting with such a strong high to the east the system just barrels right into it versus heading northeast some as there is a weakness in the high pressure field north of the storm. Upper level flow is fairly flat in our region with not much ridging out in front. In the context of this model run, the solution seems like it makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Upper level flow is fairly flat in our region with not much ridging out in front. In the context of this model run, the solution seems like it makes sense. That's assuming the models are handling the upper level flow correctly. If current model runs are underdoing the strength of the shortwave and it digs further SW, then a storm cutting more NE is certainly on the table (especially with no Greenland block). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Lansing started their streak on Jan 5th..... So that's almost 5 weeks. 7 Weeks looks like an almost lock. Amazing that Lansing managed only a single day with a measurable depth in Dec.... A single T recording. I know what you're saying but technically a T doesn't count as measurable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 That's assuming the models are handling the upper level flow correctly. If current model runs are underdoing the strength of the shortwave and it digs further SW, then a storm cutting more NE is certainly on the table (especially with no Greenland block). Yeah, that's why I said in the context of this particular run. Could certainly change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Yeah, that's why I said in the context of this particular run. Could certainly change. 12z GGEM verbatim was close to the aforementioned possibility (a stronger/deeper digging shortwave). It just missed the phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Couple nice 12Z GFS ensembles for the GLs regarding that storm potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I find it interesting with such a strong high to the east the system just barrels right into it versus heading northeast some as there is a weakness in the high pressure field north of the storm. I think that's where the best chance of a north trend occurs. Better ridging between the departing HP and the new one dropping in to the northern plains. I suspect this storm will model stronger....I just have to hope not too strong and north, (which definitely is a possibility). I guess it's all noise at this point. We really won't have a good handle on a general threat scenario until 00z Sunday runs IMHO. That's when all the clippers and fronts will have done their thing and cleared the path for whatever happens with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Some sfc low members from the 12z Euro and the control one was a significant hit along and north of the Ohio river Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The Euro ensemble members continue to get very snowy in the day 7 to 15 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Some sfc low members from the 12z Euro and the control one was a significant hit along and north of the Ohio river euro ensemble lows.png Nice westward shift on the ensembles compared to the 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Some sfc low members from the 12z Euro and the control one was a significant hit along and north of the Ohio river euro ensemble lows.png what's interesting is even though several members have tracks that would normally spell rain for our area, it's still snow, which I think has to do with the depth of cold air in place. The control takes the low to central OH and yet has the greatest snows for Ohio. It kind of reminds me of the scenario with the Jan '99 Chicago blizz....there was so much cold air in place, the low bullied into the weakness of the high and it still snowed in places east of the low. Assuming this all doesn't fall apart into a batch of cumulus clouds off the southeast coast, this has a good potential to be a widespread event for the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 what's interesting is even though several members have tracks that would normally spell rain for our area, it's still snow, which I think has to do with the depth of cold air in place. The control takes the low to central OH and yet has the greatest snows for Ohio. It kind of reminds me of the scenario with the Jan '99 Chicago blizz....there was so much cold air in place, the low bullied into the weakness of the high and it still snowed in places east of the low. Assuming this all doesn't fall apart into a batch of cumulus clouds off the southeast coast, this has a good potential to be a widespread event for the subforum. I'd go as far as to say that this has good potential to be another big dog for the subforum. It's been a while since we've had a such a tight E-W baroclinic zone for a Pacific shortwave to work with (not even 2/1/15 had that). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The Euro ensemble members continue to get very snowy in the day 7 to 15 range. Hard to count the shading, but pretty sure e12 has at least 40" for STL in the next 15 days. BOS like pounding. e31 while not super crazy per se, spreads the love all around. Everything in pink is basically 10"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Hard to count the shading, but pretty sure e12 has at least 40" for STL in the next 15 days. BOS like pounding. e12.png e31 while not super crazy per se, spreads the love all around. Everything in pink is basically 10"+. e31.png oh my, can we have this and then springboard into spring....goodnesss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Hard to count the shading, but pretty sure e12 has at least 40" for STL in the next 15 days. BOS like pounding. e12.png e31 while not super crazy per se, spreads the love all around. Everything in pink is basically 10"+. e31.png Haha yep saw those. Lots of spread the wealth members too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I'd go as far as to say that this has good potential to be another big dog for the subforum. It's been a while since we've had a such a tight E-W baroclinic zone for a Pacific shortwave to work with (not even 2/1/15 had that). It will be interesting to see if models try to come back to that really amped GFS run from a few days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The latest weeklies continue the current pattern (+NAO/AO, -EPO/+PNA) through the end of the month, though the Pacific block does weaken a bit in the second half which may present more snowfall opportunities. However, by March the weeklies build up an Aleutian ridge and -PNA pattern with the trough centred around the Plains/Midwest/Prairies, and a weak SE ridge anomaly. Gotta cool the PDO down! March could be an interesting month for us. Edit: Looks similar to March 08/11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Quite a few of the 18z GEFS members are very juicy for the potential big storm monday with over 1" QPF in various areas of the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Quite a few of the 18z GEFS members are very juicy for the potential big storm monday with over 1" QPF in various areas of the subforum. Yeah the signals are all there. The GEFS are actually not as spread as normal. Looks good on most guidance for someone to get hit in the Great Lakes/NorthEast region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Lansing started their streak on Jan 5th..... So that's almost 5 weeks. 7 Weeks looks like an almost lock. Amazing that Lansing managed only a single day with a measurable depth in Dec.... A single T recording. That is the same day pretty much all of S MI started their streak, Jan 5th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Quite a few of the 18z GEFS members are very juicy for the potential big storm monday with over 1" QPF in various areas of the subforum. Some actually bring the freezing line at 850mb pretty close to here. Interesting that the ensembles are pretty bullish on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Some actually bring the freezing line at 850mb pretty close to here. Interesting that the ensembles are pretty bullish on this. anything is possible...but I think something similar to the storm a week ago is about the limits on warmth with this one, Air mass ahead is much colder, air mass coming in is much colder, trough will probably remain positively tilted. To get the freezing line that far north, this thing would probably have to go neg tilt and cut to Chicago. Although I admit it would be foolish to discount any scenario 6-7 days out. Hell, look at the last storm, LAF was safe inside 48hrs . But if we're going to talk about model noise, I call dibbs on the JMA.... 997 in OKC to 992 to south central PA with 1.5"qpf along I-70 in ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Boy, look out if there is any ridging that forms after 150 hr on the GFS, this could be going back to a huge outcome with that much energy diving into the West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Boy, look out if there is any ridging that forms after 150 hr on the GFS, this could be going back to a huge outcome with that much energy diving into the West. That ridge out West on the 0z GFS is incredible. Through 156 hours it looks as if the GFS is ejecting the S/W out too quickly. Alot of energy coming into this. On the wind charts you can see the energy feed from the Pacific and Gulf (STJ). Timing is everything. Any initial thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 That ridge out West on the 0z GFS is incredible. Through 156 hours it looks as if the GFS is ejecting the S/W out too quickly. Alot of energy coming into this. On the wind charts you can see the energy feed from the Pacific and Gulf (STJ). Timing is everything. Any initial thoughts? Step in the right direction, it does put down a nice swath of snow across Ohio Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Yeah the GFS was another step in the right direction but not there yet...stronger wave initially dives into the pac NW..just need the next nrn wave associated with the next arctic shot to come down further west/phase better and a some more ridging out ahead of anything. The potential is pretty high as others have said if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Step in the right direction, it does put down a nice swath of snow across Ohio Valley. Yup. Partial phase. Look at the 0z UKMET. Also has a massive ridge out West. I like the placement. Just off the coast. Bodes well for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The Euro is definitely going to be a step in the right direction especially looking at the 120 and 144 hr maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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