Snowstorms Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 euro sends a follow-up shot of brutal cold, further west after the weekend shot. This suppresses the day 8,9 threat further south as it heads east. Nice hit for lower OV. Yet another solution to throw in the mix The previous storm out ahead of it tries to create a pseudo East based negative NAO which could help us for an Inland track. The strong jet streak and subtropical jet stream means alot of moisture is at stake with this one. Alot depends on the PNA and how far West the ridge is in the PNW. The strong polar jet-stream will ensure an active clipper track to continue through the next 10 days atleast, but with the massive trough in the East, the southern stream is cut-off. Potential exists for something in this time-frame. Behind it we could see another cold outbreak as the PV retrogrades further south and we maintain a cross polar flow. Three-four outcomes are possible with the February 15-18th threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Haven't seen this type of pressure gradient in quite awhile..looks very cold and windy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Haven't seen this type of pressure gradient in quite awhile..looks very cold and windy euro windy.png Delayed not denied on the Frigid Air push. Guess here is we don't come out of it without another decent snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Monday night into Tuesday is looking pretty good for some widespread snowfall. Most of the models are pretty insistent on developing something around that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I am seeing hints of early spring looking upper air patterns after the 20th. The clock is indeed ticking......... euro weeklies say we don't break out of the cold until the first week in March. At that time, the nao and ao look to go negative. Go figure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 While Detroit is in SE Michigan it does not represent SE Michigan in regards to storms. There have been several larger snowstorms in SE Michigan than the one that just occurred last week. Superbowl storm was a 12"+ storm for the entire metro, but it bullseyed the DTW area towards the river and south to the Monroe county line with what was likely a 16-18" jackpot zone that the airport (and me ) happened to be smack in the middle. This goes to show you how while they have been in the "wrong" spot for some other storms (where they may have 10-11" but other areas of SE MI get 14"+) they were in the right spot for this one. Thats why I always say too much harping is placed on "havent had a 13"+ storm since 1974" or whatever. That said, I would arguably say this storm dropped more snow on SE MI than any storm the last several decades, though it may not have been the most fierce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 euro weeklies say we don't break out of the cold until the first week in March. At that time, the nao and ao look to go negative. Go figure I don't want to break out of it until at least March 1. If we're going to get this cold we may as well have a solid cold February and go for a top five event of the past 50 or 60 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Winter Outlook and Recent Model Trends Converge and Intimate a Cold Ending to the Winter; Part I - Near Term http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2015/02/winter-outlook-and-recent-model-trends.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 euro sends a follow-up shot of brutal cold, further west after the weekend shot. This suppresses the day 8,9 threat further south as it heads east. Nice hit for lower OV. Yet another solution to throw in the mix Yeah i think the pattern is looking much better for you folks further south so hopefully you all can cash in on some of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Greatest snowstorms in Toledo's history 1. February 28 - March 1, 1900, 22". 2. December 1-2, 1974, 14" 3. January 5, 2014, 13", "Polar Vortex Blizzard" 4. January 13, 1910, 12" 4. January 26-27, 1978, The Great One, 12" (with 10 ft drifts) 4. January 1-2, 1999, unofficially 12" in north Toledo 4. January 22-23, 2005, 12" (I personally only measured only 9" near the Airport) 4. February 1-2, 2015, 12" 9. November 16, 1932, 11.5" 10. February 21, 1912, 11" 11. January 13-15, 1968, 10.3" 12. February 14-15, 2007, 10" 12. December 5-6, 1977, 10" 12. April 7-8, 1957, 10" 15. December 24-25, 1951, 9.9" 16. November 2-3, 1966, 9.6" 17. March 4, 1993, 9.4" 17. January 1-2, 2014, 9.4" "Back in the extremely cold winter of 1918, a severe blizzard commenced on January 10th and dumped five inches of snow in drifts ten feet high..." I guess that's counting the city itself, however it seems somewhere in this corner of the state gets 10"+ a year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Superbowl storm was a 12"+ storm for the entire metro, but it bullseyed the DTW area towards the river and south to the Monroe county line with what was likely a 16-18" jackpot zone that the airport (and me ) happened to be smack in the middle. This goes to show you how while they have been in the "wrong" spot for some other storms (where they may have 10-11" but other areas of SE MI get 14"+) they were in the right spot for this one. Thats why I always say too much harping is placed on "havent had a 13"+ storm since 1974" or whatever. That said, I would arguably say this storm dropped more snow on SE MI than any storm the last several decades, though it may not have been the most fierce. Agree with the first part.Second part depending on what you call SE MI. If you are just calling SE MI as Oakland, Macomb, Wayne, Washtenaw, Monroe and Lenawee then yes I agree. If you are talking all of DTX's county area as SE MI then I don't agree at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I am seeing hints of early spring looking upper air patterns after the 20th. The clock is indeed ticking......... Sure. I mean if you flip the troughs and ridges on the EPS at 360 hours I could see a torch. Tick...tock... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Winter Outlook and Recent Model Trends Converge and Intimate a Cold Ending to the Winter; Part I - Near Term http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2015/02/winter-outlook-and-recent-model-trends.html Great update. I will say that I am glad we're going to have another above normal ice cover on the Great Lakes. This will greatly benefit the level recovery we have seen the past couple years. You mentioned the rapid ice development was not needed but I for one find it to be positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Sure. I mean if you flip the troughs and ridges on the EPS at 360 hours I could see a torch. Tick...tock... eps 360.png lol... sometimes I wish angry would learn to use the attachment feature so he could show us exactly what he's talking about....otherwise we might be inclined to think he's pulling it out of his ass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Superbowl storm was a 12"+ storm for the entire metro, but it bullseyed the DTW area towards the river and south to the Monroe county line with what was likely a 16-18" jackpot zone that the airport (and me ) happened to be smack in the middle. This goes to show you how while they have been in the "wrong" spot for some other storms (where they may have 10-11" but other areas of SE MI get 14"+) they were in the right spot for this one. Thats why I always say too much harping is placed on "havent had a 13"+ storm since 1974" or whatever. That said, I would arguably say this storm dropped more snow on SE MI than any storm the last several decades, though it may not have been the most fierce. 2008 was the last "big dog" for MBY, stuck my yardstick in the ground and got 11.5" it's been a decade since a legit foot snowstorm IMBY and the biggest storm I remember in my 35yr life was only 14.0" here. *patiently waiting*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Yeah i think the pattern is looking much better for you folks further south so hopefully you all can cash in on some of it. still a positive nao and ao....so I surely wouldn't discount this thing going more north and amped either. Right now it's in fantasy chaos territory anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 lol... sometimes I wish angry would learn to use the attachment feature so he could show us exactly what he's talking about....otherwise we might be inclined to think he's pulling it out of his ass. We should be feeling good about our chances now. Dude called for a torch all last winter, and that worked out for us pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 We should be feeling good about our chances now. Dude called for a torch all last winter, and that worked out for us pretty well. that's a great point! Angry has been more optimistic this winter with snow chances.....and look what that's gotten us. Good to see the ole pessimistic Angry's back in town..... time to fire up the snow blower! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Sure. I mean if you flip the troughs and ridges on the EPS at 360 hours I could see a torch. Tick...tock... eps 360.png The weeklies tried to develop an Aleutian ridge and -PNA by week 3/4 which could promote better snow opportunities for our region. We'll see how that transpires. But damn, look at that trough in the East with that strong cross polar flow. Very reminiscent of last Winter, though we had a more pronounced ridge out West instead of an Aleutian trough this year. Almost like the 70's with two back to back cold Winters. As long as the Pacific block stays in tact (+PNA/-EPO), the effects of the +AO/NAO will be muted for our region. However, thats not to say it can't have any effect on storms (suppression or GLC). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Sure. I mean if you flip the troughs and ridges on the EPS at 360 hours I could see a torch. Tick...tock... Sick of that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Agree with the first part. Second part depending on what you call SE MI. If you are just calling SE MI as Oakland, Macomb, Wayne, Washtenaw, Monroe and Lenawee then yes I agree. If you are talking all of DTX's county area as SE MI then I don't agree at all. agree.I should have said metro Detroit not SE Michigan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 If this cold is as lasting as some are saying we may have back-to-back winters with top 5 longest stretches of continuous snowcover on record (last year was #2 for consecutive 1"+ days, #1 for total 1"+ days). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 agree. I should have said metro Detroit not SE Michigan It's a common mistake. The Detroit area makes up the lion's share of "SE Michigan," so a lot of folks have gotten into the habit of using "Metro Detroit" and "SE Michigan" interchangeably... The term "SE Michigan" really got fashionable starting back in the 1970s when Detroit proper became a less prominent part of the area and people didn't want to be associated with Detroit proper (it was a re-branding of sorts). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 It's a common mistake. The Detroit area makes up the lion's share of "SE Michigan," so a lot of folks have gotten into the habit of using "Metro Detroit" and "SE Michigan" interchangeably... The term "SE Michigan" really got fashionable starting back in the 1970s when Detroit proper became a less prominent part of the area and people didn't want to be associated with Detroit proper (it was a re-branding of sorts). Also you have to consider we are on a weather board in that many on here will just consider SE MI just equal to DTX NWS coverage area. This is why I was kind of clarifying with Josh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Today's 12z GGEM with a two-parter for the medium range. Would be a nice treat for the southern parts of the sub-forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Today's 12z GGEM with a two-parter for the medium range. Would be a nice treat for the southern parts of the sub-forum. ggem 150.png ggem 156.png ggem 162.png ggem 168.png ggem 174.png ggem 180.png ggem 186.png ggem 192.png It could be a fun one. Looks like it's going to have even more moisture and a tighter baroclinic zone than Feb. 1st... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Today's 12z GGEM with a two-parter for the medium range. Would be a nice treat for the southern parts of the sub-forum. ggem 150.png ggem 156.png ggem 162.png ggem 168.png ggem 174.png ggem 180.png ggem 186.png ggem 192.png GEFs have also become aggressive with that D7 threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 It's coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 GEFs have also become aggressive with that D7 threat Smoothed out 24 hour total QPF and not overwhelmingly wet, but decent signal on the 12z GEFS. But better than the op GFS for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Smoothed out 24 hour total QPF and not overwhelmingly wet, but decent signal on the 12z GEFS. But better than the op GFS for sure. gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_30.png yeah that's a decent signal at this range. The 12z Euro was a little better but still south of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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