buckeye Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 The 12z GGEM also has a storm around the Feb 14-17th time period. Intriguing time frame as the PNA ridge looks to break down some with a slightly positive NAO. Still 7 days out but lets see. yea you guys are in a great position. I'll be very dubious of any solutions showing snow south of I-80 with a continued positive NAO and strongly positive AO. This has wash, rinse, and repeat written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 This looks about right on the 12z GFS. A nice 33˚ and rainer for here. gfs 216 p.png gfs 216 t.png I almost thought that was a map of the Feb 1 storm at first. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 yea you guys are in a great position. I'll be very dubious of any solutions showing snow south of I-80 with a continued positive NAO and strongly positive AO. This has wash, rinse, and repeat written all over it. which is what the euro came in with. A w to e bowler that is bullied south thru the TN Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 At least we know this time which model to believe. Fool me once Euro.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Euro ensembles continue to look better regarding early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Euro ensembles have been getting colder and snowier back into the midwest and Plains the last few days. I take this as a message that a colder stormier pattern will be taking shape across the midsection as we move a head. Hopefully. St Louis needs snow in a bad bad way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 yea you guys are in a great position. I'll be very dubious of any solutions showing snow south of I-80 with a continued positive NAO and strongly positive AO. This has wash, rinse, and repeat written all over it. 18z GFS looks more like the 12z Euro now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 18z GFS looks more like the 12z Euro now. 00z GFS says North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 00z GFS says North. Yeah what a storm on the GFS. 20 degree temperature gradient at 850mb across IL. Pretty nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Yeah what a storm on the GFS. 20 degree temperature gradient at 850mb across IL. Pretty nuts. Nice SE Ridge on the model too. Keeps that gradient tight esp with the PV up north. Any thoughts? GGEM is an overrunner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Nice SE Ridge on the model too. Keeps that gradient tight esp with the PV up north. Any thoughts? GGEM is an overrunner. Too early beyond talking in generalities, but this does look like a potential storm for the region about 8-9 days from now. There has been consistency in a storm potential, the details have been fuzzy though and probably will be for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Too early beyond talking in generalities, but this does look like a potential storm for the region about 8-9 days from now. There has been consistency in a storm potential, the details have been fuzzy though and probably will be for a while. Good point, I agree. Models have been atrocious this year and I wouldn't be surprised to see some wild solutions. Potential is there, we just need the right "ingredients" to come together. Let's see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I wonder if this would be an ice storm scenario for someone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I wonder if this would be an ice storm scenario for someone Could be though I would be worried with the tight 850 gradient it might be a narrow zone of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Heh, GFS already spitting out 20-24" jackpots, think about if this comes through and pulls a SB storm ramp up near the end. Oh, and would be nice if one of these things had instability to work with on the warm sector side, but I doubt it given the repeated cold intrusions into the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Yeah what a storm on the GFS. 20 degree temperature gradient at 850mb across IL. Pretty nuts. 985mb low at Cincinnati on the GFS. I don't believe there will be 985mb there, because that would be a once-in-a-decade type of SLP, given the tendency for higher pressure over the continent in winter. It might be a snowy Feb 17th for Northwest Ohio if the placement of precipitation is close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 985mb low at Cincinnati on the GFS. I don't believe there will be 985mb there, because that would be a once-in-a-decade type of SLP, given the tendency for higher pressure over the continent in winter. It might be a snowy Feb 17th for Northwest Ohio if the placement of precipitation is close. Not saying it will happen but if the pattern supports it which this one would, it is possible to have a storm that strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 00z GFS says North. 6Z GFS says south. We can probably play this game for another week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 i'm gonna get buried again, huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 i'm gonna get buried again, huh My wife and daughter were in Chicago the last few days.. I asked her about the weather and all she said was, "zzzzzz". shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 My wife and daughter were in Chicago the last few days.. I asked her about the weather and all she said was, "zzzzzz". shocked. By chance, will you be heading up north again to take another one for the team with this upcoming potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 By chance, will you be heading up north again to take another one for the team with this upcoming potential? I plan on it.... I'll keep everyone informed within the winter sports thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 gotta admit, I did find it funny that jonger missed out on SE Michigan's first big dog in a century. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I plan on it.... I'll keep everyone informed within the winter sports thread. Good to hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 gotta admit, I did find it funny that jonger missed out on SE Michigan's first big dog in a century. Last Jan 5th, I got around 16 inches on that one. Howell got hosed on the Superbowl storm with 10.2, the low spot in SE Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 While Detroit is in SE Michigan it does not represent SE Michigan in regards to storms. There have been several larger snowstorms in SE Michigan than the one that just occurred last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 While Detroit is in SE Michigan it does not represent SE Michigan in regards to storms. There have been several larger snowstorms in SE Michigan than the one that just occurred last week. Six events of 12-18" since 1999 north of 59 to i-69. 1999,2000,2005,2008,2014,2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 euro sends a follow-up shot of brutal cold, further west after the weekend shot. This suppresses the day 8,9 threat further south as it heads east. Nice hit for lower OV. Yet another solution to throw in the mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Six events of 12-18" since 1999 north of 59 to i-69. 1999,2000,2005,2008,2014,2015. Yeah it's not the ones around a foot as both Detroit and Toledo are good for one 10"+ a year. It's the 15"+ or blizzards that get remembered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Yeah it's not the ones around a foot as both Detroit and Toledo are good for one 10"+ a year. It's the 15"+ or blizzards that get remembered Greatest snowstorms in Toledo's history 1. February 28 - March 1, 1900, 22". 2. December 1-2, 1974, 14" 3. January 5, 2014, 13", "Polar Vortex Blizzard" 4. January 13, 1910, 12" 4. January 26-27, 1978, The Great One, 12" (with 10 ft drifts) 4. January 1-2, 1999, unofficially 12" in north Toledo 4. January 22-23, 2005, 12" (I personally only measured only 9" near the Airport) 4. February 1-2, 2015, 12" 9. November 16, 1932, 11.5" 10. February 21, 1912, 11" 11. January 13-15, 1968, 10.3" 12. February 14-15, 2007, 10" 12. December 5-6, 1977, 10" 12. April 7-8, 1957, 10" 15. December 24-25, 1951, 9.9" 16. November 2-3, 1966, 9.6" 17. March 4, 1993, 9.4" 17. January 1-2, 2014, 9.4" "Back in the extremely cold winter of 1918, a severe blizzard commenced on January 10th and dumped five inches of snow in drifts ten feet high..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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