Jonger Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 the last storm moved too far north and f*cked you like a Victoria's secret model. is that what you mean by screwed????? I'm talking about the current pattern going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 the last storm moved too far north and f*cked you like a Victoria's secret model. is that what you mean by screwed????? LMAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 LMAO The guys hilarious, lmao. His sig is just as funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 So next storm threat not until the week of Feb 15th as that southwest cutoff gets reabsorbed into the main flow Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 So next storm threat not until the week of Feb 15th as that southwest cutoff gets reabsorbed into the main flow Sent from my iPhone Been the pattern- quiet followed by cold or snow. I'm worried that northeast trough is going to slide west for late Feb. and March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Thanks for posting this, BuffaloWeather. I've been watching Don Paul for 20 years now (WIVB is available on cable systems in the Golden Horseshoe/GTA). He's the best met in the Buffalo area. The persistence in the current pattern is incredible. Despite the mild December, we are on pace to have another below normal winter, temperature-wise. I agree. The thing is that many in the general public seem to think its been a mild winter. All they remember is the mild Christmas, nothing else. February to them might end up being a kick in the balls if what the GFS is predicting for late next week comes to pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 The 0z GFS predicts 500mb heights lower than I've ever seen at 40N, in 204-210 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I agree. The thing is that many in the general public seem to think its been a mild winter. All they remember is the mild Christmas, nothing else. February to them might end up being a kick in the balls if what the GFS is predicting for late next week comes to pass. The 12z GFS has crazy cold for our area this weekend. Could be a day or two where the high temp is below 0 F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I agree. The thing is that many in the general public seem to think its been a mild winter. All they remember is the mild Christmas, nothing else. February to them might end up being a kick in the balls if what the GFS is predicting for late next week comes to pass. December was mild but I can't believe people don't remember November and January being so cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 December was mild but I can't believe people don't remember November and January being so cold! They are comparing it to last year lol. When we actually get a mild winter I can just hear the public Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 They are comparing it to last year lol. When we actually get a mild winter I can just hear the public Haha! I know, I've heard a lot of people saying that this winter has not been "nearly" as cold as last winter. Albeit December 2014 was much more mild than December 2013, November 2014 and January 2015 were remarkably similar to their previous year counterpart in the temperature department (November slightly colder, January slightly warmer) for Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Haha! I know, I've heard a lot of people saying that this winter has not been "nearly" as cold as last winter. Albeit December 2014 was much more mild than December 2013, November 2014 and January 2015 were remarkably similar to their previous year counterpart in the temperature department (November slightly colder, January slightly warmer) for Toronto. This true. But this winter has not been "nearly" as warm as average. Detroit had a 20" snow depth last winter and an 18" snow depth this winter. People still are living in their bubble of time standing still in 1978 Im sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 The 0z GFS predicts 500mb heights lower than I've ever seen at 40N, in 204-210 hours. it's a horrendous run for snow lovers. Pennies and nickles in the brutal relentless north flow thru hr 300 at which time the trough lifts out, a storm forms in the gulf, and it rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 They are comparing it to last year lol. When we actually get a mild winter I can just hear the public I've come across People that think the cold last Winter was "normal" so this winter is mild to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I've come across People that think the cold last Winter was "normal" so this winter is mild to them. just ridiculous really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 The 12z GFS has crazy cold for our area this weekend. Could be a day or two where the high temp is below 0 F. The benchmark for a super cold February day is February 9, 1934. High minus 25 Celsius in Toronto, without the wind factored in. I don't think we'll beat that, due to urban heat island effect downtown, but I agree we could see a couple of zero days. I just hope they're not ruined by midnight highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I've come across People that think the cold last Winter was "normal" so this winter is mild to them. just ridiculous really. I agree completely. People seem to think they lived through week after week of zero days at this latitude one or two generations ago. It's nonsense! Also, It gets me when people say that it's "weird" to have the temperature oscillate so much from day to day. It's a rare winter when you see solid cold without a thaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 This winter hasn't been nearly as cold for a large area of the country. Lima's departures are still in the + range for the season, much less the Plains and South where arctic outbreaks have been few and far between. It's been a colder regime after December but yeah, the mild December has been tough to completely overcome to this point. Here's a map of temperature departures for the past 60 days (best I can do...don't know how to get one from Dec 1 to present) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Looks like the GFS, Euro and CMC all try to eject another cutoff in 8-10 days. Will the cold be suppressive or relax enough for it to come north will be the main question IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 12z Euro would be good for a nice 3-5" event for the MSP area. GFS lends some support to that idea as well. Nothing huge but a respectable snow event looks possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 12z Euro would be good for a nice 3-5" event for the MSP area. GFS lends some support to that idea as well. Nothing huge but a respectable snow event looks possible. I saw that. Trust me, a 3-5" event is a huge event by this winter's standards. Would likely be the biggest event in the metro so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Looks like the GFS, Euro and CMC all try to eject another cutoff in 8-10 days. Will the cold be suppressive or relax enough for it to come north will be the main question IMO c'mon, what do you think? Here's the drill....*spoiler alert*.... Models will begin converging on a path thru the TN Valley in the next couple days....then at around 120hrs out a track thru the lower OH valley with a nice swath of snow along the I-70 corridor. The tease will be in place until hr 72 when the nam shows the first north bump....Alek posts "wagons north"...the gfs goes north...the euro and ggem hold on the OV track until 48 hrs out then they cave north. Congrats Chicago-GRR-Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Looks like the GFS, Euro and CMC all try to eject another cutoff in 8-10 days. Will the cold be suppressive or relax enough for it to come north will be the main question IMO A good majority of the 12z Euro ensemble members have the storm but as expected, are all over the the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 the 18z gfs takes the -20 850 line to Charleston South Carolina around day 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 A good majority of the 12z Euro ensemble members have the storm but as expected, are all over the the place. The PNA ridge needs to weaken in order for the energy in the south to have any influence on the northern stream. The EPO is expected to remain slightly negative based on current models, but the +PNA is holding strong. The models also show a -NAO trying to develop, especially on the Eastern regions of Greenland and Iceland so we'll see how that transpires. The STJ will remain active but without a decent gradient structure in the atmosphere, it'll be hard to get anything to phase. If only this could break down a bit. The Pacific jet-stream is alive and well through atleast the next 240 hours on the models. The amount of possibilities we have, but no outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 the 18z gfs takes the -20 850 line to Charleston South Carolina around day 12 I really wish the GFS didn't have a reputation for overdoing cold. I'd really like to see a couple of zero days. Only then will my winter be complete. Honestly wouldn't mind a 1934 style cold wave for two or three days. I'd settle, though, for breaking at least cold record. Toronto Pearson might have a shot next Friday or Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 c'mon, what do you think? Here's the drill....*spoiler alert*.... Models will begin converging on a path thru the TN Valley in the next couple days....then at around 120hrs out a track thru the lower OH valley with a nice swath of snow along the I-70 corridor. The tease will be in place until hr 72 when the nam shows the first north bump....Alek posts "wagons north"...the gfs goes north...the euro and ggem hold on the OV track until 48 hrs out then they cave north. Congrats Chicago-GRR-Detroit. Nice synopsis of winter around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I realize it's noise at this point, but 12gfs has almost a freakish carbon copy of the Chi-Det blizz again at 200hr+. It's so far out there that it could either be a good thing for those of us being missed, as it will most definitely change....or a bad thing because it's so far out it could lose it and then come full circle. . If those were the only options, my money would have to go on the latter. Repeating patterns and climo win almost everytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I realize it's noise at this point, but 12gfs has almost a freakish carbon copy of the Chi-Det blizz again at 200hr+. It's so far out there that it could either be a good thing for those of us being missed, as it will most definitely change....or a bad thing because it's so far out it could lose it and then come full circle. . If those were the only options, my money would have to go on the latter. Repeating patterns and climo win almost everytime. The 12z GGEM also has a storm around the Feb 14-17th time period. Intriguing time frame as the PNA ridge looks to break down some with a slightly positive NAO. Still 7 days out but lets see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 This looks about right on the 12z GFS. A nice 33˚ and rainer for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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